IMRA Middle East News Updates

Weekly Commentary: Will Rewarding Hostage-Taking Cripple IDF in Future Wars?

Thu, 25 Apr 2024 17:13:59 -0400

Weekly Commentary: Will Rewarding Hostage-Taking Cripple IDF in Future Wars?
Dr. Aaron Lerner, 25 April 2024

There is a strong consensus (beyond the echo chamber) that if we fail to
complete our operation in Gaza, both our enemies and regional allies will
see this as a dangerous sign of weakness as we forfeit victory for hostages.

Our enemies will add hostage-taking as an opening gambit of any major
operation against the Jewish State, confident that an echo chamber of
Israeli media, talking heads, and hostage families will cripple a
devastating Israeli response.

Shabak does a great job. But don't underestimate the ability of Iran and
others to orchestrate a mass kidnapping operation in the heart of Israel
using sleeper cells who were never on our radar.

Our allies in the Gulf and the Saudis will think twice about tying their
fates with a country that forfeits victory for hostages.

Yes, these are harsh words.

But they need to be said.

This isn't a question of "owing" a victory to our soldiers who were killed
or wounded and their families so that their sacrifices were not in vain.

We have to look to our nation's very future.

We need to talk about this rationally.

The echo chamber assertion that no country puts its own future over the
lives of civilian hostages is powerful rhetoric.

But the truth is that no country puts the lives of civilian hostages over
the country's future.

Yes, some deals are possible.

But not at any price.

Let's be clear about this: the talking heads who claim we can somehow pick
up this war at our convenience on the basis of some future incident are
treating us like children.

Count on Mr. Biden - or more hostage-taking - to stop us.

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Example of indecision: Bridge not completed for 8 months - Government can't decide between working one Shabbat or closing Tel-Aviv Jerusalem Highway for 1.5 days in workweek

Thu, 25 Apr 2024 04:13:14 -0400

Example of indecision: Bridge not completed for 8 months - Government can't decide between working one Shabbat or closing Tel-Aviv Jerusalem Highway for 1.5 days in workweek
Dr. Aaron Lerner 25 April 2024

To share a "taste" of the cost of kicking cans down the road I am sharing
with you this article which describes a project whose completion involved
working one Shabbat to complete a bridge which passes over the Tel Aviv
Jerusalem Highway.

Such activity on Shabbat was common when the alternative was a major
disruption of traffic during the work week and the project managers shared
with the Government the trade-off: a major disruption of traffic for around
a day and a half in the workweek.

I am not going to suggest that the Government should not opt for the
alternative to Shabbat work.

I am only pointing out that instead of deciding between the two
alternatives, this project has been stuck for eight months.

And it is hardly the only national project stuck by indecision.

We have gone through almost countless committees to decide where to build
the next international airport in the country because there are politicians
who don't want to face the wrath when a decision is made.

The following is a translation of an article from Walla News:

Prepare popcorn: this is how the Ministry of Transportation blocked the railway bridge on Route 1
Udi Etzion Walla News
Last updated: 14.1.2024 / 9:03

https://cars.walla.co.il/item/3635517

On Highway 1 (IMRA: Tel-Aviv Jerusalem highway) stands another monument
weighing tens of tons to the situation: the 431 railway bridge designed to
connect Jerusalem to the Ramla area and Rishon Lezion, which has been
standing for five months [IMRA: now 8 months] just before completion over
one of the busiest roads in the country. NIS 380 million was allocated by
the state for the section between Modi'in and Nesharim and includes the
train interchange designed to transfer the train from the track along road
number 1 to the track along road 431.

On one of the Thursdays last August, the chairman of the railway, attorney
Moshe Shimoni, urgently called the railway's CEO at the time, Micha Meixner,
and demanded that the work that was planned to start in a few hours be
stopped on the bridge on Highway 1. The goal was to connect the missing
section with a length of about 20 meters, which necessitates the closure of
the road for safety reasons, over Shabbat when traffic is light, but the
matter was leaked to ultra-Orthodox members of the Knesset, who pressured
the Minister of Transportation Miri Regev to stop the works.

Meixner is one of the highly regarded senior managers that Regev made sure
to move, because he stopped the political appointments on the train. At the
same time, upon her entry into the ministry last year, she dismissed the
respected Shai Kedem, who had grown up in the ministry, and appointed in his
place Avner Flor, a veteran director of the ministry with no experience in
the field of infrastructure, who helped her in preparing the appointment to
the position of the ministry's CEO, Moshe Bo Zaken, the former political
advisor and who that the Civil Service Commission initially refused to
approve his appointment because he lacked professional and managerial
experience in the fields of transportation.

The result: the state of the project only continued to deteriorate. Solel
Boneh, which is controlled by Shikun Ubinuy which is listed on the stock
exchange, claims that the state owes it NIS 100 million for the work on the
project, and has stopped it altogether, including connecting another part of
the long bridge above the interchange, which goes over the drop off from
Highway 1 towards Highway 431.

In 2020, when it began, it was determined that the project would be
completed within 28 months, and that the entire track would be opened for
service in 2026, as one of the important measures to ease traffic congestion
in the center and at the entrance to Jerusalem. The Ministry of
Transportation and the railway deny that the delay of five months so far in
the completion of the bridge will cause a delay in the project, but in the
announcement that the railway recently published about the construction of a
new station in the Ramla project, it has already been set for 2028 when the
track opens.

"There is no other way to finish the work without doing it on Shabbat," says
an official in the infrastructure field. "Just putting the engineering tools
to work takes hours, so there is no time to do it in several consecutive
nights. And closing Highway 1 in this section for a day and a half in the
middle of the week will create huge traffic jams for hours on Highways 443
and 431."

In response to "Walla Auto"'s request in October regarding the possibility
of taking advantage of the large decrease in traffic at the beginning of the
war to close the road and quickly carry out the work even in the middle of
the week, the Ministry of Transportation stated that "we are not dealing
with this right now."

This week the response changed, although the Ministry of Transportation and
the Railways still refuse to reveal how the bridge will be completed: "The
431 track project is extremely complex from an engineering point of view and
includes aspects of tunneling, extensive bridging carried out using
innovative methods, construction of new stations and work in close proximity
to population centers and national infrastructures," the ministry said. "The
Israel Railways manages all aspects of the project, as well as the many
implementation challenges in it, in the best possible way, even during the
war. As for the contractor Solel Boneh, there are indeed delays on his part
in some of the execution segments under his responsibility, which are
handled by the railway in order not to harm the entire project. There is no
reason for claims regarding any financial debt to the contractor."

It was reported from Solel Bohen that the state owes NIS 100 million for the
ongoing work on the project.
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Can Israel Leverage Rafah Evacuation Centers Photo Op to Overcome Objections to Defeating Hamas?

Tue, 23 Apr 2024 16:49:29 -0400

Can Israel Leverage Rafah Evacuation Centers Photo Op to Overcome Objections
to Defeating Hamas?
Dr. Aaron Lerner 23 April 2024

This image provided by Maxar Technologies, shows rows of tents built near
Rafah in Gaza on April 23, 2024. (Source: Associated Press)
https://x.com/IMRA_UPDATES/status/1782872383801397753

Weekly Commentary: Can Israel Leverage Rafah Evacuation Centers Photo Op to
Overcome Objections to Defeating Hamas?
Dr. Aaron Lerner, 19 March 2024

The footprints of the evacuation centers Israel will set up for the over one
million civilians now in Rafah will be huge.

News agencies will have their own satellite photos of the centers, and the
sky is the limit regarding the "products" which the IDF will be able to
provide for the media and the world, showing the facilities Israel has
prepared for Gazans who choose to "walk to life" rather than remain in Rafah
as human shields for Hamas.

I wouldn't be surprised if there are tours of the facilities for the media
and others immediately before the citizens in Rafah are given their
evacuation instructions.

I have no illusions:

There are Democrats who will object in principle that civilians in Rafah
should have to evacuate to safety, arguing that Israel should either give up
or magically carry out its operations against Hamas in Rafah in the presence
of over a million human shields without injuring the civilian shields.

Others will term the square meters per evacuee or toilets per evacuee in the
evacuation centers as nothing less than "genocide".

It's hard to know if President Biden opts to pivot and take credit for the
evacuation arrangements or wags his finger to the very end for the Dearborn
vote.

One thing is certain: Civilians in Rafah will know, beyond a shadow of a
doubt, that safety and survival is literally a short walk away.

To be clear: The challenge today is not to find a compromise with the Biden
team over the defeat of Hamas. It is to defeat Hamas while arranging for
evacuation centers which the Israeli public and Israel's friends around the
world are proud of.

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

KAN: 5 Field Hospitals Constructed In Expanded Humanitarian Zone With

Mon, 22 Apr 2024 01:22:00 -0400

KAN: 5 Field Hospitals Constructed In Expanded Humanitarian Zone With
Million Capacity For Rafah Evacuees
[IMRA Translation]

Ahead of the Operation in Rafah: Israel Will Significantly Expand the
Humanitarian Zone in Gaza
Israel is going to enlarge the entire humanitarian area in Gaza up to the
Nuseirat line, including five field hospitals and the capacity to
accommodate one million refugees.
Ro'i Kais KAN 07:03 22 April 2024 T
https://www.kan.org.il/content/kan-news/defense/741069/

Ahead of the IDF operation in Rafah, Israel will significantly expand the
humanitarian area in Gaza. This morning on Kan Bet, it was published for the
first time today (Monday) that the new humanitarian area will be
significantly larger than the existing one in the Al-Mawasi area.

According to the publication, this area will extend over a space that starts
at Al-Mawasi in the south along the coastal strip up to the edges of
Nuseirat located in the center of the Strip. The potential absorption
capacity of the displaced in this space will stand at one million. In
addition, five field hospitals were constructed in this space in addition to
the regular hospitals operating in the area.

________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

World Leaders Silent As Pyromaniac Erdogan Backs Flotilla to Gaza

Sun, 21 Apr 2024 15:59:45 -0400

World Leaders Silent As Pyromaniac Erdogan Backs Flotilla to Gaza
Dr. Aaron Lerner 21 April 2024

There is a simple face-saving solution for the "Freedom Flotilla Coalition"
spearheaded by the Turkish IHH Humanitarian Relief Foundation, which is
closely aligned with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan: drop the cargo
at the Port of El Arish, less than 30 miles from the Rafah border crossing.

World leaders have been busy publicly and privately offering their advice to
the Jewish State as they urge Israel to give priority to the avoidance of
the possibility of a "regional war" over taking actions to ensure its very
survival.

Why are these same leaders silent when it comes to Erdogan's project, which
has the potential to bring this NATO member to the point of exchanging blows
with Israel?
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Weekly Commentary: Policymakers Beware: Iran and Its Allies Are Racing Up the Learning Curve - Simply Intercepting Their Attacks Is Not The Solution

Thu, 18 Apr 2024 17:48:51 -0400

Weekly Commentary: Policymakers Beware: Iran and Its Allies Are Racing Up
the Learning Curve - Simply Intercepting Their Attacks Is Not The Solution
Dr. Aaron Lerner, 18 April 2024

At this very moment, a team of top Iranian engineers is burning the midnight
oil, studying how to overcome the mechanical and other failures that caused
half of the missiles they launched to fail.

Another team of Iranian experts is reviewing how most of the remaining
missiles were intercepted and also how some succeeded in reaching their
targets.

Since the start of the war, Hezbollah has been carefully monitoring every
move of the IDF in its ever-escalating "not-yet-war" with the Jewish State,
so that it can constantly enhance its capabilities in battle.

In some instances, Hezbollah has used these enhanced capabilities in attacks
whose sophistication surprised us. But that's only the "tip of the iceberg."
We are painfully clueless about what else they have already developed or
will in the future.

And of course, all this time Iran and its allies are literally counting how
many of each type of interceptor Israel has launched (both from the ground
and from airborne platforms) in order to estimate how many we still have,
after taking into account their estimates of the quantities of new
interceptors Israel has added to its stocks since October 7th.

It is critical that our policymakers recognize we are in a dynamic situation
in a race against the clock.

Let me take this to an extreme: even if we possessed unlimited funds and a
magic tube into which you insert a billion dollars at one end and all the
interceptors we used this week miraculously popped out of the other end, it
would still be a critical error to apply the "kick the can down the road"
approach, which the Iron Dome facilitated as a policy towards Hamas.

Because Iran and its allies are racing up the learning curve, so that two,
three, or even four billion dollars a round won't suffice.

And since there is no magic tube, and replenishing the billion dollars of
interceptors is going to take time, our race against the clock is even more
critical.
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il