Poll Results 25 October 2002

Aaron Lerner Date: 25 October 2002

+++ Poll of Likud Members

The following are the results of a poll of a representative sample of 500
Likud members carried out on the evening of 24 October by Market Watch for
Ma'ariv. Statistical error +/- 4.5 percentage points:

If the candidates for chairmanship of the Likud and prime minister were
Ariel Sharon and Binyamin Netanyahu who would you vote for?
Netanyahu 46% Sharon 42%
Among "certain voting": Netanyahu 48% Sharon 40%

Among the following who do you think is most appropriate to serve in the
future as chairman of the Likud and prime minister?
Olmert 20% Shitreet 18% Mofaz 16%
Landau 12% Livnat 9% Shalom 4%

Do you support continuing the national unity government?
Total: Yes 66% No 28% Don't know 6%
Support Sharon: Yes 81% No 15%
Support Netanyahu: Yes 53% No 41%

Do you support evacuating illegal outposts in the territories?
Total: Yes 49% No 44% Don't know 7%
Support Sharon: Yes 56% No 38%
Support Netanyahu: Yes 42% No 51%

Do you support the establishment of a Palestinian state next to Israel?
Total: Yes 40% No 55% Don't know 5%
Support Sharon: Yes 47% No 46%
Support Netanyahu: Yes 33% No 64%

If primaries were held now for the chairmanship of the Likud and their
candidate for prime minister, what are the odds you would vote?
Certain-100% 56%
51-99 percent - 23%
0-50 percent 21%
Support Sharon: Certain-100% 54%
Support Netanyahu: Certain-100% 60%

Please compare between Sharon and Netanyahu. In each of the following areas
who is more:
Reliable: Sharon 47% Netanyahu 25%
Bring Likud more seats: Sharon 42% Netanyahu 44%
Handle economy better: Sharon 18% Netanyahu 53%
Handle terror better: Sharon 47% Netanyahu 32%
Advance agreement with the Palestinians: Sharon 38% Netanyahu 29%
Represents people like me: Sharon 35% Netanyahu 38%

Ma'ariv 25 October 2002

++ Dahaf poll

The following are the results of a Dahaf poll of a representative sample of
502 adult Israelis (including Israeli Arabs) carried out the week of 25
October 2002. Statistical error +/- 4.5 percentage points:

Should negotiations open now over a peace agreement with the Palestinians?
Yes 60% No 39% No reply 1%

Should the IDF reenter the Palestinians cities?
Yes 40% No 49% No reply 11%

Should Israel agree to the evacuation of settlements?
Yes 78% No 20% No reply 2%

[From the text:
Within the framework of an agreement with the Palestinians would you support
Evacuating all the settlements - 32%
Evacuating settlements in areas with dense Arab populations - 46%
Don't evacuate any settlements 20%

Who is responsible for the violence during the evacuation of the outpost?
Settlers 57% Army/Police 21%

How did events surrounding the evacuation of the outposts affect your trust
in Ben Eliezer?
Total: Decreased 37% Increased 8%
Among support Labor Party: Increased 16%

Among Labor Party voters:
61% Labor Party's place is in Sharon Government

Among Labor Party voters:
72% Party should support budget with certain adjustments
16% Party should oppose budget]

Should the IDF protect Palestinians harvesting olives?
Yes 68% No 29% No reply 3%

Who would you prefer to see heading the Labor Party?
Ben Eliezer 20% Mitzna 31% Ramon 31%

Yediot Ahronot 25 October 2002

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
pager 03-6106666 subscriber 4811
Website: http://www.imra.org.il