Dialogue/Ha'aretz Poll Results

Aaron Lerner Date: 23 January 2003

To Ha'aretz's credit, they continue to report the percentage undecided:
16% - as compared to 16.7% last week. There is no indication how the 16% =
19 seats were allocated.

The following are the results of a Dialogue poll of a representative sample
of 876 adult Israelis (including Israeli Arabs) carried out on 21 January
2003 for Ha'aretz and published in Ha'aretz on 23 January. Survey error +/-
3.8 percentage points. Results for the previous poll carried out 14 January
appear in [brackets]..

Knesset seats:

Right/Religious Bloc: Total 65.5- from 59 current Knesset [64.5]
Likud 31 [29.5] National Union/Ysrael Beiteinu 8.5 [10]
Shas 13 [12] NRP 4 [4] Yahadut Hatorah 5 [6]
Yisrael B'Aliya 4 [3] Herut 0 [0]

"Center" Total 18 from 15 [17]
Shinui 16 [15] Am Echad 2 [2]

Left/Arabs: Total 36.5 from 47 current Knesset [36.5]
Labor/Meimad 18.5 [20] Meretz 9 [8.5]
Arab parties 9 [8] [includes Hadash]

"Other" Total 0 from 0 current Knesset [2]
Aleh Yarok 0 [2] (Aleh Yarok has added legalization of prostitution to its
platform to legalize marijuana)

* It is noteworthy that last week 100% of the respondents who gave Aleh
Yarok enough "votes" to take 2 seats said they were "certain" they were
voting for Aleh Yarok. It would appear that pollsters are having a problem
with people who think it is funny to say they are voting for Aleh Yarok.]

Chances voting:
Certain 71.6% Think yes 12.1% Maybe 6.8%
Think no 2.6% Certain no 5.4% Don't know/Undecided 1.5%

If Labor doesn't agree to join a national unity government, and Sharon forms
a narrow government, who would you like to see as minister of defense?
Total:
Mofaz 43.5% Netanyahu 11.6% Meridor 10.8% Olmert 0.7%
Lieberman 6.2% Don't know 25.1% Other 2.1%

Vote Likud:
Mofaz 66.7% Netanyahu 16.3% Meridor 2.3% Olmert 0.0%
Lieberman 3.3% Don't know 10.7% Other 0.7%

If Labor doesn't agree to join a national unity government, and Sharon forms
a narrow government, who would you like to see as foreign minister?

Total:
Netanyahu 54.6% Olmert 5.6% Shalom 2.2% Livnat 1.4%
Shitreet 14.1% Don't know 17.1% Other 5.0%

Vote Likud:
Netanyahu 74.1% Olmert 4.2% Shalom 1.1% Livnat 1.7%
Shitreet 6.3% Don't know 9.4% Other 3.2%

And if in any case a national unity government is formed, who would you want
as defense minister?

Total:
Mofaz 39.4% Mitzna 14.7% Ben Eliezer 7.7% Olmert 0.2%
Netanyahu 9.0% Vilnai 10.7% Don't know 16.1% Other 2.2%

Vote Likud
Mofaz 64.0% Mitzna 3.2% Ben Eliezer 7.0% Olmert 0.0%
Netanyahu 13.6% Vilnai 3.9% Don't know 5.4% Other 2.9%

Vote Labor
Mofaz 5.1% Mitzna 45.3% Ben Eliezer 7.2% Olmert 0.0%
Netanyahu 3.4% Vilnai 27.1% Don't know 8.5% Other 3.4%

And if in any case a national unity government is formed, who would you want
as foreign minister?

Total:
Netanyahu 36.7% Peres 35.8% Olmert 3.0% Mitzna 3.6%
Burg 5.5% Don't know 13.4% Other 2%

Vote Likud:
Netanyahu 56.9% Peres 23.1% Olmert 3.9% Mitzna 3.0%
Burg 2.9% Don't know 7.7% Other 2.5%

Vote Labor:
Netanyahu 5.1% Peres 69.3% Olmert 1.1% Mitzna 3.6%
Burg 11.8% Don't know 8.2% Other 0.9%

If Labor gets 20 seats should Mitzna resign?
Total:
Certain yes 26.1% Think yes 14.5% Maybe 7.3%
Think no 14.9% Certain no 21.9%
Don't know 13.6% Refuse reply 1.7%

Vote Labor:
Certain yes 7.3% Think yes 12.6% Maybe 3.7%
Think no 19.4% Certain no 47.0%
Don't know 8.0% Refuse reply 2.0%

Should Shinui forego its rejection of the Ultra-Orthodox and, as a large
party, join the government in any event?
Total:
Certain yes 25.9% Think yes 18.4% Maybe 6.8%
Think no 9.6% Certain no 23.5%
Don't know 12.8% Refuse reply 3.0%

Vote Shinui:
Certain yes 18.3% Think yes 15.8% Maybe 3.6%
Think no 14.4% Certain no 41.8%
Don't know 6.1% Refuse reply 0.0%

Do you believe Sharon intends to make "painful concessions" as he puts it,
in order to reach an arrangement with the Palestinians?
Total: Yes 37.3% Maybe 18.3% No 36.3% Don't know 8.1%
Vote Likud: Yes 61.3% Maybe 14.5% No 17.9% Don't know 6.3%
Vote Labor: Yes 19.0% Maybe 6.2% No 71.0% Don't know 3.8%

If Shinui is a large party and decides to join the government, what
portfolio is most appropriate for Tommy Lapid?

Total:
Education 19.9% Treasury 4.8% Interior 22.3% Justice 18.3% Other 3.4%
None 16.5% Don't know 14.8%

Vote Shinui:
Education 26.5% Treasury 5.9% Interior 46.2% Justice 12.5% Other 7.6%
None 0.0% Don't know 1.3%

[Ha'aretz 23 January 2003]

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
pager 03-6106666 subscriber 4811
Website: http://www.imra.org.il