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Friday, November 7, 2003
PEACE PROJECT OCTOBER 2003 SURVEY

PEACE PROJECT OCTOBER 2003 SURVEY

The Peace Index Project is conducted by the Tami Steinmetz Center for Peace
Research at Tel Aviv University, headed by Prof. Ephraim Yaar and Dr. Tamar
Hermann and executed by the Tel Aviv University's B. I. Cohen Institute.
Results are shown for 28 - 29 October 2003.

The survey details below covers the representative sub-sample of adult
Jewish Israelis for the core questions

What is your opinion on the agreement that was signed in Oslo between Israel
and the PLO (Agreement of Principles)?
Heavily in favor 7.8% Considerably in favor 13.1%
In the middle 16.7%
Considerably opposed 14.9% Heavily opposed 34.6%
Do not know 13.0%

Do you believe or not believe that the Oslo Agreement between Israel and the
PLO will bring about peace between Israel and the Palestinians in the coming
years?
Greatly believe 2.4% Considerably believe 8.6% Middle 10.7%
Considerably do not believe 16.9% Completely do not believe 51.3%
Do not know 10.1%

What is your position regarding the carrying out of peace negotiations
between Israel and the Palestinian Authority?
Greatly support 35.2% Considerably support 35.9%
Considerably oppose 11.2% Greatly oppose 15.1%
Do not know 2.5%

Do you believe or not believe that negotiations between Israel and the PLO
will bring about peace between Israel and the Palestinians in the coming
years?
Greatly believe 8.9% Considerably believe 27.3%
Considerably do not believe 25.8% Completely do not believe 34.9%
Do not know 3.1%

Recently a plan for an Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement known as the
"Document of Geneva Understandings" was presented. Have you heard of the
plan?
Yes 79.2% No 20.6% Not certain/Don't know 0.2%

Asked to those who said yes:
Do you know who the key Israeli people behind the plan are?
Yes 70.9% No 29.1%

The Document of Geneva Understandings is a peace agreement developed by a
group of Members of Knesset, and public figures from the Left along with
their Palestinian counterparts. There are those who maintain that every
group of citizens can launch such an initiative such as the Geneva
Initiative since Israel is a democracy, as long as they do not violate the
law. Others assert that the management of negotiations and drafting of
proposals for peace agreements is within the exclusive authority of the
elected government and that such initiatives undermine the standing of the
elected government, even if the action is legal.

Which of the two views do you agree more with?
Can make initiatives 28.2% Only government should 64.7%
Don't 7.1%

I will now present to you a list of the central personalities who were
involved in the Geneva initiative. For each individual to what extent they
can represent Israel's national interests where 5 is excellently and 1 is
not at all;

Avraham Burg:
Not at all 28.4% Poorly 12.3% Middle 21.4%
Good 10.8% Excellently 15.6% No reply 11.5%

Amram Mitzna:
Not at all 43.5% Poorly 13.1% Middle 12.4%
Good 11.9% Excellently 10.3% No reply 8.8%

Yossi Beilin:
Not at all 51.3% Poorly 9.8% Middle 9.3%
Good 7.0% Excellently 11.0% No reply 11.6%

Nechama Ronen:
Not at all 33.1% Poorly 10.0% Middle 12.3%
Good 3.9% Excellently 3.3% No reply 37.5%

Amnon Shachak:
Not at all 22.4% Poorly 8.7% Middle 21.6%
Good 17.4% Excellently 16.0% No reply 14.0%

[IMRA: MK Yahalom quoted a law that termed engaging in activity to transfer
land under Israeli sovereignty as "treason" subject to the death penalty.]

MK Shaul Yahalom of the NRP, claims that from the standpoint of the law,
participation in the Geneva initiative was treason with a punishment of life
imprisonment or the death penalty. There are those who said in response
that in light of the murder of Rabin that he should not have said such a
thing in public and that if participation in the "Geneva Initiative" was a
violation of the law that the legal system would have already taken care of
the matter.

Was it proper for MK Yahalom to say such a thing?
Yes 13.5% No 77.5% Don't know 9.0%

Base on what has been reported in the media about the "Geneva Initiative",
do you support or oppose it?
Greatly support 7.6% Considerably support 17.1%
Considerably oppose 17.9% Greatly oppose 36.4%
Don't know 20.8%

To what extent does the "Geneva Initiative" have a chance of being
implemented?
Great 0.4% Considerable 6.3%
Little 23.4% Miniscule 40.5% NO chance 12.4%
Don't know 16.9%

[IMRA: Unfortunately, the following questions ignore the alternative of
Palestinian autonomy proposed as an alternative that avoids the creation of
a sovereign Palestinian state on the one hand and a binational state on the
other. Instead we are left with a series of questions that tend to force
respondents to a certain line of thought.]

In light of the difficulties that the peace process based on two states for
two peoples, today there are those proposing a binational state as the
solution, namely, a state covering all of the Land of Israel within which
Jews and Palestinians have equal representation in the central institutions
of the state without any connection to the relative sizes of the two
populations. Do you think that Jews and Palestinians could possibly live as
citizens with equal rights in such a binational state?

Certain yes 1.8% Think yes 9.4%
Impossible 22.9% Certain impossible 62.6%
Don't know 3.4%

Is it possible to insure the security of the Jewish population in such a
binational state?
Certain yes 2.8% Think yes 13.6%
Impossible 19.0% Certain impossible 61.4%
Don't know 3.2%

Is it possible to insure the realization of the national identity of the
Jewish population in a binational state?
Certain yes 7.4% Think yes 18.0%
Impossible 18.5% Certain impossible 47.9%
Don't know 8.2%

[IMRA: The final outcome in Oslo was left wide open.]

In the Oslo Agreement the solution proposed to the conflict was "two states
for two peoples". There are those who claim that if a solution cannot be
found on this basis and Israeli rule over the territories continues the
Palestinians will over the course of years turn from a minority to a
majority and that, effectively, a "binational state" will be created where
the majority does not have civil right. To what extent do you fear such a
development?
Greatly 41.3% Considerably 26.1%
Considerably no 8.6% Not at all 15.1%
Don't know 8.9%

Today, which of the two solutions do you favor more: the solution of "two
states for two peoples" or the solution of a "binational state"?
Two states 77.9% Binational 6.0%
Both to same extent 0.4% Neither 11.5%
Don't know 4.2%

Do you believe that the unilateral erection of a fence, wall or the other
physical means of separation by Israel can prevent or at least significantly
reduce terror attacks?
Prevent 19.0% Significantly reduce 63.1%
Not prevent or significantly reduce 16.5% Don't know 1.3%

In principle do you support the erection of the separation fence?
Greatly 47.2% Considerably 36.2%
Considerably against 6.5% Greatly against 5.1%
Don't know 5.0%

As you know, there is a dispute over the route of the separation fence
between those who support a separation fence in accordance with the Green
Line and whose who maintain that the Green Line does not have to be the
exclusive element in setting the location of the fence, but instead that is
should be based on security and other considerations of the Government of
Israel. Which position do you agree more with?
Green line 19.1% Government's considerations 62.6%
Oppose fence in principle 4.2%
Don't know 14.1%

Translated to English by Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director
IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
pager 03-6750750 subscriber 4811
ARCHIVE/Subscribe: http://www.imra.org.il

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