IMRA'S WEEKLY COMMENTARY - 20 November 2003

Aaron Lerner Date: 20 November 2003

And what happens after you build a fence?

Today most Israeli politicians, including many associated with the national
camp, support the erection of a separation fence. The way the media covers
the story it is as if the only issue left is the route the fence takes -
either hugging Green Line or attempting to provide some protection to Jewish
communities in the West Bank and possibly preserve the Israeli presence in
the strategic Jordan Valley.

But there is a lot more to the fence story than simply the route it takes.

When some of the politicians say "separation fence" what they really mean is
"unilateral withdrawal". And "unilateral withdrawal" means setting the scene
for a unilaterally created sovereign Palestinian state.

That's a sovereign Palestinian without even the illusion of some kind of
framework or understanding to prevent it from becoming a dangerous sovereign
terror state.

Some Israelis maintain that once a fence is completed and properly
monitored, the Palestinian threat will be limited to what they can lob or
fire over it. This threat can be addressed, they argue, via the deterrent
effect of massive retaliation.

It is indeed true that over the course of Israel's history there have been
instances that massive retaliation has had a significant deterrent effect.
But the efficacy of such a "solution" in this instance is highly
questionable as it relies on the absence of significant third parties in the
equation. The Palestinian leadership, that for years has strived to involve
third parties in the conflict for their benefit, would certainly do
everything in its power to involve third parties. And as a sovereign state
there would be nothing to stop them from bringing these third parties onto
their sovereign soil.

Would Israel shoot down a Pakistani transport plane as it passes from Jordan
to Palestine during the 5 seconds that it flew over Israeli controlled
airspace? How about a Russian or Chinese? French or German? An Israeli
blockade of a sovereign Palestinian state would just be an invitation for
international condemnation and challenge.

Israel could easily find itself facing a far more effective deterrent than
anything the Jewish State could threaten the Palestinians with in the form
of "tripwire" third party observer forces deployed to sustain casualties in
the event of an Israeli attack. Casualties that would threaten to suck the
nations represented by the wounded "tripwires" into active conflict with
Israel. Thus, instead of being deterred by fear of retaliation, the
Palestinians, protected by the presence of third party "tripwires", could
step up their war of attrition as they move on to the next stage of their
program

There certainly may be a place for a fence in an effective security program,
but only if Israel retains security control on both sides of it. Otherwise,
what little temporary protection it may afford won't come close to
justifying its expensive price tag.

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
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