Weekly Commentary: Palestinian Polls Provide Reality Check

Aaron Lerner Date: 24 June 2004

Two large polls of Palestinians recently carried out serve as reality checks
against the wishful thinking of various withdrawal scheme advocates.

The Birzeit University Development Studies Programme (DSP) poll carried out
on 4-6 June and the Jerusalem Media & Communication Center (JMCC) Poll
carried out on 6-9 June provide strong evidence that the Palestinian public
has no intention to reward Israeli withdrawals and concessions with peace.

Are the polls accurate? Aren't Palestinians afraid to say what they really
think when asked questions in face-to-face polls?

Consider the following: 90.3% said that there is corruption in the
Palestinian Authority. When asked which Palestinian personality they trust
the most, only 23.6% said Arafat as compared to 29.4 who don't trust anyone.
Ask the same question in Syria and 99.99% would have responded "President
Assad" and the other 0.01% would be off to prison.

Here are some highlights:

84.3% don't believe that peace is possible between Palestinians and Israelis
if Israel does not recognize the right of Palestinian refugees to return -
and right of return means the end of the Jewish State..

Then again, only 37.7% think that there is a chance for peaceful coexistence
between Palestinians and Israelis even if Israel concedes the right of
return.

Only 27.2% oppose the continuation of the intifada with a plurality (45.5%)
responding that the final goal of the intifada is to eradicate Israel rather
than force Israel to withdraw to the '67 lines.

Only 19.9% oppose the resumption of the military operations against Israel.

Only 31.5% oppose suicide bombing operations against Israeli civilians.

61.2% responded that they would support "continuation of armed resistance
against Israel coming from Gaza" in the event of an Israeli withdrawal from
the Gaza Strip.

So:

Can withdrawal be expected to be rewarded with calm? No.

Can conceding every Israeli red line bring "peaceful coexistence"? No.

What then is left as a viable option? Patience and perseverance.

The patience and perseverance to put Israel's right to exist over
Palestinian claims to the right to the highest form of self rule - an
independent sovereign state rather then lesser forms of self rule that won't
undermine Israel's existence.

Patience and perseverance may not have the simplistic appeal that withdrawal
or photo-op signing ceremonies have, but it has, nonetheless, a critical
advantage: it is viable.

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(Mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
Website: http://www.imra.org.il