Inquiry & Analysis - Jihad & Terrorism Studies Project
August 10, 2004
No. 185

Assessing the Credibility of the 'Abu Hafs Al-Masri Brigades' Threats

By Yigal Carmon*

In the last two months, an organization calling itself the "Abu Hafs
Al-Masri Brigades" and claiming to be connected to Al-Qa'ida has published a
number of threats addressed at Europe in general and Italy in particular,
aiming to prompt a withdrawal of European and Italian forces from Iraq.

Today it published a new statement claiming responsibility for this
morning's bombing in Istanbul, and announcing that this is the first of a
series of upcoming attacks in Europe.

This report will assess the veracity of these threats and address questions
regarding the existence of such an organization.

Content of the 'Brigades' Threats

On July 1, 2004, the Abu Hafs Al-Masri Brigades published a long essay
titled "The Road Map of the Mujahideen." It included, among other things,
threats against European countries: "To the European people ... you have but
a few days left to accept the peace [sulh] which bin Laden has offered you.
If you do not do so, you will have only yourselves to blame... Muslims who
live in Western nations: those of you who can emigrate to a Muslim country
should do so, and those who can not should live in areas inhabited by
Muslims; [should make sure] that he and his family have provisions for the
coming month and that he has means of protecting himself and his family; [he
should make sure] that he has money for one month or more, and should strive
to do good deeds."(1)

In mid-July the "Abu Hafs Al-Masri Brigades in Italy" published an
additional threat explicitly addressing Italy: "This is the last warning to
the Italian nation. Either you get rid of the Berlusconi or else we will
burn Italy down. This is a clear equation that we are presenting to you in
order to clear ourselves of responsibility, for he who warns can not be
blamed. You will be seeing the next message on your own territory and not on
the Internet. Berlusconi is dragging you into additional bloodshed and total
subservience to America... We are capable of hitting quality targets with
non-conventional weapons that will cause a huge disaster. A single
individual determined to sacrifice himself for a just cause equals an entire
army, and September 11 is the best proof of this."(2)

On July 28, 2004, the Abu Hafs Al-Masri Brigades published another threat
addressing the European governments: "Today we have declared a bloody war
against you. We shall not desist from our attacks against you until you come
back to your senses, after the reprieve which Sheikh Osama bin Laden has
granted you - may Allah keep him - has ended ... we will raze the cities of
Europe to the ground and you will be first, Berlusconi! We will turn them
into [cities] drenched in blood until you, the leaders of Europe and its
peoples, return to your senses. Withdraw your troops from Iraq, and walk in
the path of those who preceded you, lest you taste the bitter fruits of
blood. Do not aid America and that pitiful Bush, commander of the infidels.
If you do not do as we say, you will regret it very much, God willing."(3)

On July 31, 2004, two weeks after the end of Bin Laden's reprieve which the
Abu Hafs al-Masri Brigades had also endorsed in their own threats and which
had produced no results, another statement was published by the Abu Hafs
Al-Masri Brigades addressing the Italian people and granting them a
fifteen-day reprieve, during which the government of Italy should withdraw
its forces from Iraq lest it be attacked: "We are calling up all our cells
in Rome and other Italian cities for this war, and we are giving Silvio
Berlusconi a fifteen-day reprieve to withdraw from Iraq."(4)

A new statement was published on August 7, 2004 by the Abu Hafs al-Masri
Brigades, in which they announced that the end of the previous reprieve is
approaching: "The end of the reprieve which we set for you and your
government to withdraw your forces [from Iraq] is approaching. We will see
if you are wise enough to make the decision to withdraw, since if you do not
do so the bloody war will come to you. We shall not stop the attacks on
Rome, and you will not feel secure in your own homes. Every place will be a
target after the end of the reprieve... The targets have been set already;
all that is left is to reach the end of the reprieve... Our cells in Rome
and in other Italian cities have made the necessary preparations. They were
recruited to carry out this mission after the end of the reprieve [on August
15]. The brigades will have the last word in the depths of Italy... "[We
tell] our cells in the Italian cities, in Rome, and in every place in Italy:
the war is coming. We call upo

"The Europeans Region of the Brigades - the Military Wing" published a new
statement on August 10, 2004, claiming responsibility for today's attacks in
Turkey. The statement was titled "the coming strikes will be more violent
Allah willing" and warned that the attack was one in a series of future
attacks against European countries after they had rejected Bin Laden's peace
of mid-March. It also promised to publish the details of the Istanbul
attack. The statement mentioned repeatedly the elements quoted in the
previous threats endorsing again the bin Laden reprieve but without any
reference to their own ultimatum of July 31, 2004. It also promised that if
only the European countries will stop following and supporting the
"contemptible" George W. Bush, Al-Qa'ida will desist from attacking them.(6)

Assessment of the Veracity of the Threats and Questions Concerning the
Existence of the Organization

In MEMRI's estimation the "Brigades'" threats lack credibility for the
following reasons:

Previous False Warnings: The "Brigades" have a long history of making false
claims of responsibility for acts perpetrated by other organizations and
events with no connection to terrorism, such as the blackout in the
Northeast of the U.S. in August 2003, the attacks on the Jewish synagogues
in Istanbul in November 2003, and the Madrid bombings of March 2004.(7)

Lack of Valid Indications Proving the Existence of Such an Organization:
Despite the high profile the organization presents in its statements
claiming to engage in a wide range of activities in Iraq, Europe, and the
United States, and alleging that it is structured according to geographical
regions and operational departments, no operative with even a remote
affiliation with such an organization has to this day been captured, and
there is no information available about its leaders, such as can be found
regarding leaders of other Islamist organizations even prior to their
capture or killing.

The "Brigades'" Modus Operandi (in Making Threats): While in the past the
"Brigades" used to take responsibility for attacks after the fact, since
July 2004 they have begun publishing frequent warnings of future attacks.

In about two months they have published more threats than any other Islamist
organization in a very long while. Moreover, they came to the point where
they needed to deny some of the threats, claiming that they were not theirs,
a phenomenon unheard of in other Islamist organizations. For example, on
July 30, 2004, "the Abu Hafs Al-Masri Brigades - Europe" published a
"clarification" discounting responsibility for some of the threats published
on their behalf, with the exception of the threat addressed to Italy: "In
the last few days we have seen several statements attributed to The Abu Hafs
al-Masri Brigades threatening European governments in general and the
government of Italy headed by Berlusconi in particular. We wish to make
clear the following points: in the last two days we have not published any
statement in any Internet site and we did not circulate any threats. Our
last statement was: 'Last Warning to the Italian People' [from mid-July] ...
and since then we have not publi

Recently the "Brigades" have established an Internet site operated by their
"Communications Department." The site's address is:
http://www.hostinganime.com/abu-hafs. It is weak in content, containing only
the last will and testament of Abu Hafs al-Masri, who was a close associate
of bin Laden and died in November 2001 in the course of an American attack
in Afghanistan. Two statements of the Brigades that had been published
previously during the last two months are also posted.

The "Brigades" publishes their statements either electronically on the
Internet or by way of notices sent to the press, especially to the
London-based pro-Saddam and pro-bin Laden Arabic daily Al-Quds Al-Arabi. In
an interview with the AP news agency after the Madrid bombings the chief
editor of the newspaper said that the organization's statement "was
authentic."(9)

This method is an easy and readily available one, and makes it difficult to
ascertain whether any form of an organized group is really behind it. Other
unknown organizations have used this same method to publish threats in the
last few days, for example the "the Muhammad Atta Brigades" and the
"Battalion of Abu Baqr Al-Sidiq."(10)

Most of the threats of the "Abu Hafs Al-Masri Brigades" lack Islamist
characteristics such as citations of Koranic verses and Islamic traditions
that are common in Internet publications of genuine Islamist groups
connected to Al-Qa'ida.

Questions Regarding the Existence of the 'Brigades'

The analysis above casts serious doubts regarding the very existence of a
terrorist organization by the name of the "Abu Hafs Al-Masri Brigades"
affiliated with Al-Qa'ida, and with the scope of activities alleged in the
statements. Those behind the publications are interested in undermining the
coalition in Iraq. However they seem to be nationalistic in their
orientation rather than Islamist, while pretending to be affiliated with
Al-Qa'ida only to gain more credibility to their threats.

* Yigal Carmon is President of MEMRI.

Endnotes:
(1) Al-Sharq Al-Awsat (London), July 2, 2004. The full text is available at
http://www.hostinganime.com/abu-hafs/
(2 )http://www.hostinganime.com/abu-hafs/
(3)http://www.islamic-minbar.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=282
(4) Al-Quds Al-Arabi (London), August 2, 2004.
(5)http://www.islamic-minbar.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=485
(6)http://www.islamic-minbar.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=606
(7) Regarding the claim of responsibility for the blackout see MEMRI Special
Dispatch No. 553, August 19, 2003, 'Al-Qa'ida Claims Responsibility for Last
Week's Blackout,'
http://www.memri.org/bin/articles.cgi?Page=archives&Area=sd&ID=SP55303;
Regarding the claim of responsibility for the Madrid attacks see MEMRI
Inquiry & Analysis No. 166, March 12, 2004, 'The Alleged Al-Qa'ida Statement
of Responsibility for the Madrid Bombings: Translation and Commentary,'
http://www.memri.org/bin/articles.cgi?Page=archives&Area=ia&ID=IA16604.
(8) http://www.hostinganime.com/abu-hafs.
(9)http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/03/19/world/main607516.shtml.
(10) "The Muhammad Atta Brigades" published on August 8, 2004, a threat
against El Salvador: "This is the last warning for El Salvador's
government... Evacuate your soldiers from Iraqi soil. The continued presence
of your soldiers in Iraq will present every Salvadoran [citizen] with a
bloody war everywhere." See:
http://www.islamic-minbar.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=515. "The Battalion of
Abu Bakr Al-Sadik" was published on August 7, 2004, is a threat against El
Salvador and Denmark as well: "To the people and government of El Salvador:
We are requesting of you for the last time not to send forces to Iraq. Do
not cast your sons into hell. Do not follow the forces of darkness and
rebellion that are taking over the world. Sending your forces to Iraq is a
provocation on the part of the Salvadoran people and its government against
Islam and the Muslims." The threats were addressed against Denmark too: "We
address this letter as the first to the government and people of Denmark. We
are requ

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