Poll: 56% of Likud Voters would have voted Likud if knew it would promote
disengagement plan

Aaron Lerner Date: 20 October 2004

15% If the disengagement plan is not implemented, in your opinion, the USA
will greatly reduce its support for Israel

56% of Likud voters would have voted Likud if they had known before the
elections that the Likud would promote the disengagement plan

57% Carry out the disengagement plan only after getting a majority in a
national referendum

28% If the disengagement plan is implemented Israel's ability to oppose
international pressure that will be brought against it in the future to
evacuate additional Jewish communities in the West Bank will increase

26% If the disengagement plan is implemented Israel's ability to oppose
international pressure that will be brought against it in the future to
evacuate additional Jewish communities in the West Bank will be reduced

42% If the disengagement plan is implemented the chances the extension of
the firing of Qassam rockets to additional communities within the Green Line
will increase

The following are the results of a poll conducted by Smith Research among a
representative telephone sample of 500 voting-age Israeli Jews on 18 and 19
October. The margin of error in the survey was 4.5 percent. The survey was
commissioned by the Zionist Organization of America (ZOA).

1. What do you believe are the chances that the disengagement plan, that
includes the evacuation of Jewish communities from the Gaza Strip and some
isolated communities in Judea and Samaria, will be carried out in the coming
year?
Great 13% Considerable 24%
Somewhat but not high 19%
Low 21% Barely or not at all 18% Other 5%

2. If a national referendum is carried out on the disengagement, is a simple
majority or a majority of at least 65% required?
Regular 47% At least 65 percent 48% Other 5%

3. There are those who argue that it is possible to carry out the
disengagement plan only if it turns out from a national referendum that the
majority of the public supports it and there are those who maintain that if
there is a majority supporting the plan in the Knesset that there is no need
for a national referendum. What view do you agree with more?

57% Carry out the disengagement plan only after getting a majority in a
national referendum
39% The disengagement plan can be carried out if there is a majority in the
Knesset supporting it, and there is no need for a national referendum.
04% Other

4. To what extent do you agree or disagree with the assertion that since the
Likud won the elections with a platform that opposed the unilateral
evacuation of communities that Prime Minister does not have a mandate to
carry out the disengagement plan, and it should be brought to a national
referendum or new elections?
Agree a lot 34% Considerably 18%
Not so much 11% Don't agree 33%
Other 4%

5. (Voted Likud): When you decided to vote for the Likud, did you think
that it might support a plan that includes the unilateral evacuation of
communities?
Yes 35% No 60% Other 5%

6. (Voted Likud) If you had known before the elections that the Likud would
promote the disengagement plan would this have changed your vote?
Yes 37% No 56% Other 7%

7. (Didn't vote Likud): In your estimation, when Likud voters decided to
vote for the Likud did they think that the Likud might support a plan that
includes the unilateral evacuation of communities?
Yes 22% No 62% Other 16%

8. (Didn't vote Likud): In your estimation, if Likud voters had known before
the elections that the Likud would promote the disengagement plan, would
most have changed their vote?
26% Most would have voted for another party
34% Some would have voted for another party
25% Most would have still voted Likud
15% Other

9. If the disengagement plan is implemented, how, in your opinion, will it
influence Palestinian terror activity?
Reduce 24% Increase 35% Remain same 35% Other 6%

10. If the disengagement plan is implemented, how, in your opinion, will it
influence the firing of Qassam rockets at Sderot and the environs?
Reduce 24% Increase 36% Remain same 30% Other 10%

11. If the disengagement plan is implemented, how, in your opinion, will it
affect the chances the extension of the firing of Qassam rockets to
additional communities within the Green Line that today are not being hit by
Qassams (like Ashkelon, Ashdod and the Sharon area)?
Reduce 21% Increase 42% Remain same 28% Other 10%

12. If the disengagement plan is implemented, how, in your opinion, will it
influence Israel's ability to oppose international pressure that will be
brought against it in the future to evacuate additional Jewish communities
in the West Bank?
Increase 28% Reduce 26% Remain same 36% Other 10%

13. To what extent do you agree with the assertion that even if the
disengagement plan is not carried out, in the end Israel will have to
evacuate Jewish communities in the Gaza Strip and Judea and Samaria?
Agree a lot 37% Considerably 25%
Not agree so much 9% Don't agree 24%
Other 5%

14. If the disengagement plan is not implemented, in your opinion, will the
USA in practice reduce its support for Israel?
Greatly 15% To an extent 21%
A little 11% Almost no reduction at all 43%
Other 11%

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(Mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
Website: http://www.imra.org.il