Development Studies Programme
Tel: (972) 2-2959250, Fax: (972) 2-2958117, P.O Box 1878, Ramallah
Homepage: http://home.birzeit.edu/home, E-mail: dsp@birzeit.edu

Press Release: Presidential Election
Date of fieldwork: 3rd of December, 2004
Number of field researchers: 120
Margin of error (+ or ?): 3%
Sample size: 1198 Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip
Number of locations in the sample: 75
Date of publication: 6th of December, 2004

* For further information or queries, contact team coordinator Dr.
Nader Said or Polling coordinator Ayman Abdul Majeed at the listed address
or through our website.

* Many thanks go to our field researchers, and to our friends at the
International Republican Institute (IRI) for their support.

Results of An Opinion Poll

· A majority (87%) support the timely conduct of presidential
election, and (83%) intend to vote.
· Equal votes for Marwan Barghouti (46%) and Mahmoud Abbas (44%).
· Musatafa Barghouti, the only viable opposition candidate is third
(7%)
· (24%) of the respondents are (undecided), more in the West Bank
(27%) than in Gaza (19%)
· Compared with previous polling data, the result show a significant
increase in the popularity of Mahmoud Abbas and a decline in the popularity
of Marwan Barghouthi
· West Bank Refugee camps and villages, women, the less educated,
youth and lower income respondents tend to be more supportive of Marwan
Barghouti.
· Gaza residents, men, the more educated, urban, dwellers,
respondents with middle and higher income tend to be more supportive of
Abbas.
· Support for Mahmoud Abbas and Marwan Barghouthi disaggregated for
socio-economic variables:

Marwan Barghouthi: Women, Age group18-29 years, Less educated, Poor, West
Bank, Villages

Mahmoud Abbas : Men, Above 50 years, More educated, Rich, Gaza, Cities
Labor sector: Non-governmental & governmental

No decision: Above 50 years, West Bank, Labor sector: Private &
governmental

· Support for Mustafa Barghouthi increases among women, West Bank
(refugee camp and village) residents.
· (41% ) feel that Mahmoud Abbas is the (most suitable) candidate;
(38%) feel that Marwan Barghouti is the (most suitable), while (5%) feel
that Mustafa is the (most suitable).
· (64%) expect that Mahmoud Abbas will win, while (22%) expect that
Marwan Barghouti will win.
· A boycott of election by Islamist groups has no significant impact
on participation; only 17% will not participate.
· No significant differences in attitudes among respondents
registered for the election and those unregistered, among both groups Fatah
gains the highest votes; Marwan Barghouthi and Mahmoud Abbas receive almost
equal votes. Support for Hamas is also almost equal among the registered and
the unregistered.
· "Using the Public Record" to allow the registered and unregistered
Palestinians to vote will significantly increase participation in Gaza
(75% - 88%), that might lead to more votes to Mahmoud Abbas
· Mahmoud Abbas receives 48% of Fatah supporters' votes and 18% of
Hamas's votes, Marwan Barghouthi receives 31% of Fatah supporters' votes and
51% of Hamas's votes. Independents voted equally for both candidates.
Support for candidates disaggregation by political affiliation:

Marwan Barghouthi Fatah 31% Hamas 51% Independent 22%
Mahmoud Abbas Fatah 48% Hamas 18% Independent 20%

· Fatah gains significant support - from 29% during September 2004,
to 45% now.
· Support for Hamas is at 20%, 4% less than its support during
September 2004.
· If election for Municipal and Legislative councils took place,
Fatah would get 47% of the vote compared with 30% for the Islamist block and
3% for Leftist block.