JMCC Latest Public Opinion Poll Results
Poll no. 52 On Palestinian Attitudes Towards The Palestinian Political
Issues - December 2004

Significant Opinion results

When Palestinians were asked to choose among the ten presidential candidates
which one they are going to vote for, real contest was limited between Fatah
candidate Mahmouh Abbas who received 31.9% of the votes while Marwan
Bargouthi, running as independent, received 26.4% of the votes. Moreover,
Abu Mazen and Marwan got almost the same results in Gaza with Abbas getting
31.1 percent and Marwan receiving 30.2 percent. The ratio differed in the
West Bank though with Abbas getting 32.4 percent and Marwan settling with
24.1 percent of the votes.

A majority of Palestinians opposes military operations against Israeli
targets as a suitable response under the current political conditions.

The poll shows a significant increase in the popularity of Fatah Movement
with Hamas' popularity showing considerable decline.

A majority of Palestinians supports the two state solution.

A majority of Palestinians feels optimistic regarding the future in general.

A majority of Palestinians expect the national unity to continue after the
departure of President Arafat.

Most Palestinians believe there will be a change in the political positions
of the new Palestinian leadership after the demise of President Arafat.

Peace Process:

A majority of Palestinians, 59.3 percent, feel optimistic or very optimistic
regarding the future in general compared with 45.3 percent last June.
Meanwhile, 40.2% said they were pessimistic or very pessimistic compared
with 54.5 percent last June.

Most Palestinians, 47.3 percent, believe that the peace process is going
through difficult circumstances with an uncertain future. A ratio of 24.8%
believe that the peace process is dead and negotiations cannot be resumed
while 25.8% believe that the peace process is still alive and that
negotiations can be resumed.

When asked what is the favored solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict,
56.7 percent said a two state solution compared with 44.5 percent last June.
Of those interviewed, 23.7 percent said a bi-national state in historic
Palestine is the preferred solution compared with 26.5 percent last June.
Meanwhile, 8.6 percent said the preferred solution is one Palestinian state
compared with 11.1 percent last June. A ratio of 3.2% said they prefer an
Islamic state compared with 2.3 last June. A ratio of 4.8% said there is no
solution compared with 13.6 percent last June.

A majority, 51.8 percent, opposes military operations against Israeli
targets and considers them harmful to Palestinian national interests
compared with 26.9 percent last June. Meanwhile, 41.1 percent believe that
continuation of military operations against Israeli targets are a suitable
response during the current political situation compared with 65.4 percent
last June.

Trust in Figures and Factions:

In JMCC open ended trend question about the Palestinian figure they trust
most, Mahmoud Abbas got the highest level of support, 21.9 percent. Marwan
Barghouthi ranked second with 15.0 percent compared with 6.3 percent last
June while the highest percentage, 26.3 percent, said they trust no one
compared with 39.0 percent last November.

In JMCC open ended trend question with regard to Palestinian factions, Fateh
was considered the most trusted faction, 40.0 percent, compared with 26.4
percent last June. It should be noted that Fatah Movement achieved this high
level of trust as far back as November 97.

The Islamic Resistance Movement, Hamas was chosen by 18.6 percent compared
with 23.0 percent last November and 21.7 percent last June.

Of those interviewed, 4.3 percent said they trust Islamic Jihad Movement.
There are 22.5 percent of Palestinians who do not trust any faction compared
with 28.2 percent last June.

Political situation after the departure of President Arafat:

In an open ended question When asked about the Palestinian figure they trust
most to lead the Palestinian people after the departure of President Arafat,
the highest percentage, 27 percent, said they trust Mahmoud Abbas. Marwan
Barghouthi came in second place with 20.1 percent support. And of those
interviewed, 25.8 percent of the Palestinians said they trust nobody.
On the issue of national unity after the departure of President Arafat, 59.8
percent of the Palestinians expect the continuation of national unity while
34.5 percent said they expect a split and internal chaos.

Concerning the impact of the departure of President Arafat on the resumption
of the Palestinian-Israeli peace process, 34.3 percent of Palestinians said
the departure of President Arafat wont affect the prospects of resuming the
peace process while 32.8 percent said there will be better chances for
resuming the peace process. A ratio of 28.3 percent said the death of
President Arafat will negatively affect the chances to resume the peace
process.

Concerning the impact of President Arafat's departure on chances of
Palestinians achieving their goals in ending occupation, establishing the
state and achieving the right of return, the highest ratio of Palestinians,
37 percent, were pessimistic while 35.1 percent of Palestinians said the
death of President Arafat will have no impact on chances of achieving the
Palestinian national goals. A ratio of 23.2 percent said this will increase
their chances to achieve their national goals.

Palestinians were split on the issue whether they expect a change in
political positions of the new Palestinian leadership after President
Arafat's departure, of those interviewed, 49.3 percent said the new
leadership will change its political positions while 47.6 percent of the
Palestinians said they expect the same positions with no changes.

For full results

www.jmcc.org/publicpoll/results/2004/no52.pdf