DSP Poll # 20 of Palestinians - second section

Development Studies Programme

Tel: (972)-2-2959250 Fax: (972)-2-2958117 Ramallah P.O.Box 1878
Homepage: http://home.birzeit.edu/dsp e-mail: dsp@birzeit.edu

Increase in Support for Negotiations; Support for Fateh on the Rise
Date of fieldwork: 3rd of December, 2004
Number of field researchers: 120
Margin of error (+ or ?): 3%
Sample size: 1198 Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip
Number of localities in the sample: 75
Date of publication: 15th of December, 2004

Analysis of Results:

Part One: The Peace Process

Sharp increase in support for negotiations, and low confidence in American
policy

- Support for negotiations with Israel increased from 45% last July
to 69% today.

- Respondents from Gaza are more supportive (73%) than their
counterparts in the West Bank (66%).

- In addition, 64% of the respondents support a lasting solution to
the Palestinian-Israeli conflict based on UN resolutions.

- 72% of those sampled believe that the re-election of President
George W. Bush will result in increased pressure on the Palestinian
leadership to make concessions to the Israeli position; whereas, 12% think
that the re-election of President Bush will reinforce the status quo. About
16% view Mr. Bush's re-election as a positive push to the peace process.

- 75% believe that the United States is not serious about its calls
for the establishment of a Palestinian state.

Part Two: The Aftermath of the Passing of President Yaser Arafat

1. The passing of President Arafat

When people were asked about their expectations of the consequences of
Arafat's death, their responses reflected both fear and hope. Some expect an
increase in political conflict and an increase in the power of religious
groups. Others expect serious institutional reform of the Palestinian
Authority.

Data regarding the passing of Arafat are as follows:

A- Greater decentralization of authority, but with political conflict
Peaceful political conflict among the political forces
59%
Distribution of authority among a number of leaders in the PA
54%
Violent conflict among the political forces
39%

B- Increased commitment toward reform versus a decline in services
More interest in institutional reform
54%
An opportunity to reorganize Palestinian institutions;
52%
And improve their performance
More democracy
39%
Decline in the performance of the PA
35%

C- Increase in the power of religious movements
Increase in the power of Islamist groups
59%
Decline in international interest regarding the Palestinian situation
39%
End of the Israeli occupation
20%

2. Palestinian fears after the passing of President Arafat
The following political, social, economic, and security issues represent the
fears of those polled.
Issue
% saying it is a fear
Continuation of the occupation
80%
Economic decline
74%
Internal security
73%
Use of weapons in resolving conflicts
68%
Continuing division between Gaza and the West Bank
67%
Abandoning Palestinian national rights
60%
Increasing conflict between Palestinian factions
60%
Decline in the performance of the Palestinian Authority
58%
Increasing conflict within Fatah
55%

Part Three: Weapons
- 66% of those sampled oppose the idea of disarming Palestinian
militias by the Palestinian Authority, whereas 29% were supportive of the
idea.
- In contrast, 70% of the respondents support disarming those with
illegal weapons by force if necessary, whereas 27% oppose such an idea.
- A majority of the sample (79%) support a ban on carrying weapons
in public areas, events, and funerals.

Part Four: An Evaluation of Fatah and Hamas

The majority of the respondents believe that Fateh represents a more
realistic and concrete program compared to Hamas. They believe that Fateh is
more capable of implementing social, political, and diplomatic programs.

Part Five: Living Conditions
1- Further deterioration in living conditions
- 7% of Palestinian families in the sample lack a monthly income.
- The monthly income of 31% of Palestinian families is less than
$160.00.
- 77% of Palestinian families' monthly income is less than $385.00.
- 41% of the sample described their family's economic situation as
"bad or very bad," whereas 43% described their family's economic situation
as "fair," and 61% described it as "good or very good".

2- Absence of security
- 55% feel insecure about their families and their property, whereas
24% feel secure.
- 47% feel insecure about the future of their children, whereas 28%
feel secure.

26% of the sample stated that they are pessimistic about the future, whereas
51% were optimistic about the future. An additional 21% stated that they
are neither optimistic nor pessimistic about the future. Moreover, the rate
of optimism is higher in Gaza (62%) when compared with the West Bank (45%).

** For more details, please see Poll # 20at:
http://home.birzeit.edu/dsp/opinionpolls/poll20/

** Many thanks go to our field researchers, and to our friends at
the International Republican Institute (IRI) for their support.