Poll No. 129
Date: 26 Dec 2004

Dear Madam,
Dear Sir,

We are pleased to forward to you the latest poll of our Palestinian Center
for Public Opinion (PCPO) from the town of Beit Sahour, the Shepherds'
Field, the place from which the angel of the Lord announced to the whole
mankind the good news of Jesus Christ birth. The poll focused on the first
issue of current interest, which is the question of the next PA president
and the degree of support the Palestinians would give to the presidential
candidates.

We trust that this survey will bring more light in the future of the region
and will be a further step on the path of peace. Please feel quite free to
contact us without any hesitation if you have any further inquiries or
questions. We will also be very pleased to have your comments on the results
of this survey.

Last not least, we wish you Merry Christmas days and a happy new year 2005,
and our region a peaceable coexistence between all nations and a just and
everlasting peace in the Middle East and all over the world.

Yours faithfully

Dr. Nabil Kukali

A poll carried out by the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion (PCPO) and
Prepared by President Dr.Nabil Kukali.

(51.4 %) support Mahmoud Abbas to the PA presidency.
(7.0 %) support Tayseer Khaled to the PA presidency.
(4.4%) support Bassam Al-Salhi to the PA presidency.
(74.0 %) support the conductance of changes in the PLO
leadership

From Majd Kokaly - Information Section

In the latest poll prepared by Dr. Nabil Kukali and conducted by the
Palestinian Center for Public Opinion (PCPO) in the period from December
(15 - 22) 2004, i.e. before the start of the election campaigns, a random
sample of (1198) Palestinian adults was included, representing the various
demographic models of the Palestinian society in the West Bank, including
East Jerusalem, and Gaza Strip. "All interviews", said Dr. Kukali, Director
of PCPO, "took place according to PCPO's experienced methodology on the
basis of random choices of respondents' homes, i.e. face to face. The
sampling error throughout the survey is found at (2.80 %). The percentage of
female respondents was (49.1%) whilst that of the male ones was (50.9%). The
distribution of the random sample among the residential areas of the
respondents was (66.2%) in the West Bank, incl. East Jerusalem, and (33.8%)
in Gaza Strip.

Dr. Nabil Kukali, Director of the PCPO, said:"the most significant issue the
poll results revealed is that Mr. Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazin) has attained the
major support as runner to the PA presidency, followed by Mr. Mustafa
Barghouthi in the second position and Mr. Tayseer Khaled in the third one.
Dr. Kukali indicated that there is a rise to the popularity of Abu Mazin,
Mustafa Barghouthi and Tayseer Khaled at the rates of 12%, 7.5% and 3.3%
respectively when compared with a previous poll published on Dec. 6, 2004.
"That rise", said Dr. Kukali, "is attributable to the withdrawal of Messrs.
Marwan Barghouthi, Hassan Khresha and Abdel-Sattar Qassem from the run to
the PA presidency office. There is still a category of the Palestinian
people, who didn't decide yet its candidate and the size of which is found
at (11.1%), whilst another category of Palestinians reaching the rate of
(10.3%) did not make up its mind whether to participate in the elections or
not." "The decision of the DFLP to participate in the presidential elections
and nominate one of its leaders to compete with the other candidates for the
office of the PA president has found a remarkable support reaching in Gaza
Strip the rate of 67.6%, whilst the rate of that support in the West Bank
was 51.4%.", Dr. Kukali added.

Dr. Kukali said the results of the poll were as follows:

1) Are you going to participate in voting for the election of the PA
President, which will be held on January 9, 2005?

Total
1. Yes, I will (proceed to question no. 2)78.4%
2. No, I will not (jump to question no. 3)11.3%
3. I didn't decide yet. (jump to question no. 3)10.3%
West Bank
1. Yes, I will (proceed to question no. 2)77.3%
2. No, I will not (jump to question no. 3)11.3%
3. I didn't decide yet. (jump to question no. 3)11.4%
Gaza Strip
1. Yes, I will (proceed to question no. 2)80.4%
2. No, I will not (jump to question no. 3)11.4%
3. I didn't decide yet. (jump to question no. 3)8.2%

2) Who of the remaining seven PA candidates would you vote for ?
(the names are listed below according to the priority of their registration
in the Candidates' List)

Total
1. Mustafa Barghouthi 21.1%
2. Mahmoud Abbas 51.4%
3. Bassam Al-Salhi 4.4%
4. Tayseer Khalid 6.8%
5. Abdul-Karim Shabeer 1.8%
6. Abdul-Haleem Ashqar 2.7%
7. Sayyed Barake 0.7%
8. I didn't decide yet.11.1%
West Bank
1. Mustafa Barghouthi 23.4%
2. Mahmoud Abbas 47.5%
3. Bassam Al-Salhi 5.3%
4. Tayseer Khalid 7.1%
5. Abdul-Karim Shabeer 1.4%
6. Abdul-Haleem Ashqar 3.6%
7. Sayyed Barake 0.6%
8. I didn't decide yet.11.0%
Gaza Strip
1. Mustafa Barghouthi 16.5%
2. Mahmoud Abbas 59.3%
3. Bassam Al-Salhi 2.4%
4. Tayseer Khalid 6.2%
5. Abdul-Karim Shabeer 2.7%
6. Abdul-Haleem Ashqar 0.9%
7. Sayyed Barake 0.9%
8. I didn't decide yet.11.2%

3) Please choose from the following list of the PA presidential candidates
the name of the candidate you believe he is serious in combating the
corruption.

Total
1. Mustafa Barghouthi 23.3%
2. Mahmoud Abbas 48.6%
3. Bassam Al-Salhi 4.3%
4. Tayseer Khalid 6.3%
5. Abdul-Karim Shabeer 1.9%
6. Abdul-Haleem Ashqar 3.2%
7. Sayyed Barake 0.3%
8. No opinion11.9%
West Bank
1. Mustafa Barghouthi 24.8%
2. Mahmoud Abbas 47.2%
3. Bassam Al-Salhi 5.8%
4. Tayseer Khalid 6.8%
5. Abdul-Karim Shabeer 1.4%
6. Abdul-Haleem Ashqar 4.4%
7. Sayyed Barake 0.3%
8. No opinion9.4%
Gaza Strip
1. Mustafa Barghouthi 20.4%
2. Mahmoud Abbas 51.5%
3. Bassam Al-Salhi 1.5%
4. Tayseer Khalid 5.4%
5. Abdul-Karim Shabeer 3.0%
6. Abdul-Haleem Ashqar 0.7%
7. Sayyed Barake 0.5%
8. No opinion17.0%

4) Which of the following candidates you believe is capable of implementing
changes and reforms to the institutions of the Palestinian Authority?

Total
1. Mustafa Barghouthi 22.9%
2. Mahmoud Abbas 50.4%
3. Bassam Al-Salhi 4.5%
4. Tayseer Khalid 6.7%
5. Abdul-Karim Shabeer 2.0%
6. Abdul-Haleem Ashqar 2.3%
7. Sayyed Barake 0.8%
8. No opinion10.3%

West Bank
1. Mustafa Barghouthi 25.3%
2. Mahmoud Abbas 46.8%
3. Bassam Al-Salhi 6.1%
4. Tayseer Khalid 7.6%
5. Abdul-Karim Shabeer 1.6%
6. Abdul-Haleem Ashqar 3.2%
7. Sayyed Barake 0.8%
8. No opinion8.6%
Gaza Strip
1. Mustafa Barghouthi 18.3%
2. Mahmoud Abbas 57.4%
3. Bassam Al-Salhi 1.5%
4. Tayseer Khalid 5.0%
5. Abdul-Karim Shabeer 2.7%
6. Abdul-Haleem Ashqar 0.7%
7. Sayyed Barake 0.7%
8. No opinion13.6%

5) Certain people in the Palestinian territories support the carrying out of
a change in the PLO leadership, whilst others don't support the conductance
of such a change. Which of the following options is closer to yours ?

Total
1. I support the change in the PLO leadership74.3%
2. I don't support the change in the PLO leadership15.4%
3. I don't know10.3%
West Bank
1. I support the change in the PLO leadership71.5%
2. I don't support the change in the PLO leadership16.9%
3. I don't know11.6%
Gaza Strip
1. I support the change in the PLO leadership79.7%
2. I don't support the change in the PLO leadership12.4%
3. I don't know7.9%

6) In general, which of the following PA presidential candidates is the most
efficient one to carry out such a change in the PLO leadership?

Total
1. Mustafa Barghouthi 24.5%
2. Mahmoud Abbas 48.1%
3. Bassam Al-Salhi 4.3%
4. Tayseer Khalid 7.3%
5. Abdul-Karim Shabeer 2.0%
6. Abdul-Haleem Ashqar 3.1%
7. Sayyed Barake 0.7%
8. No opinion10.0%
West Bank
1. Mustafa Barghouthi 26.5%
2. Mahmoud Abbas 43.0%
3. Bassam Al-Salhi 5.5%
4. Tayseer Khalid 8.3%
5. Abdul-Karim Shabeer 1.8%
6. Abdul-Haleem Ashqar 4.4%
7. Sayyed Barake 0.6%
8. No opinion9.8%
Gaza Strip
1. Mustafa Barghouthi 20.2%
2. Mahmoud Abbas 58.9%
3. Bassam Al-Salhi 1.8%
4. Tayseer Khalid 5.3%
5. Abdul-Karim Shabeer 2.3%
6. Abdul-Haleem Ashqar 0.3%
7. Sayyed Barake 0.9%
8. No opinion10.3%

7) Excluding Abu Mazin, about whom of the following candidates you are best
informed?

Total
1. Mustafa Barghouthi 62.4%
2. Bassam Al-Salhi 7.6%
3. Tayseer Khalid 11.2%
4. Abdul-Karim Shabeer 2.7%
5. Abdul-Haleem Ashqar 3.9%
6. Sayyed Barake 1.5%
7. No opinion10.7%
West Bank
1. Mustafa Barghouthi 63.6%
2. Bassam Al-Salhi 10.5%
3. Tayseer Khalid 11.4%
4. Abdul-Karim Shabeer 1.3%
5. Abdul-Haleem Ashqar 5.1%
6. Sayyed Barake 1.4%
7. No opinion6.7%
Gaza Strip
1. Mustafa Barghouthi 60.1%
2. Bassam Al-Salhi 2.0%
3. Tayseer Khalid 10.8%
4. Abdul-Karim Shabeer 5.4%
5. Abdul-Haleem Ashqar 1.5%
6. Sayyed Barake 1.7%
7. No opinion18.5%

8) In the elections of the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) held in
1996, Hamas, the PFLP and the DFLP did not participate. Now the DFLP has
decided to participate in the PLC-, municipal and presidential elections and
has nominated in fact one of its leaders to match for the office of the PA
president. Do you think that decision was right or wrong?

Total
1. Right56.9%
2. Wrong24.4%
3. No opinion18.7%
West Bank
1. Right51.4%
2. Wrong28.7%
3. No opinion19.9%
Gaza Strip
1. Right67.6%
2. Wrong16.1%
3. No opinion16.3%

Sample Characteristics:

9) Sex composition of the sample:

Total
1. Male50.9%
2. Female49.1%

10) Religion:
Total
1. Muslim96.7%
2. Christian3.3%

11) Martial status:

Total
1. Single61.2%
2. Married34.1%
3. Divorced1.8%
4. Widowed2.9%

12) Composition of the sample according to Type of residence:

Total
1. City43.3%
2. Village / Town38.5%
3. Refugee camp18..2%

13) If elections were being held today, which political party would you vote
for?

Total
1. People's party2.8%
2. The popular front for the liberation of Palestine (PFLP)4.8%
3. Fatah45.6%
4. Hamas13.0%
5. The democratic front of the liberation of Palestine (DFLP)4.6%
6. The Islamic jihad3.6%
7. FIDA2.7%
8. Liberation (Tahreer) Party0.1%
9. popular struggle (nidal) front0.1%
10. Palestinian Liberation Front0.4%
11. Arab Liberation Front0.3%
12. Independents15.3%
13. Other0.3%
14. None of the above6.6%

14) Composition of the sample according to district:

Total
1. Jenin5.1%
2. Nablus11.0%
3. Ramallah8.9%
4. Bethlehem7.1%
5. Jerusalem4.9%
6. Hebron15.9%
7. Jericho2.0%
8. Tulkarem 4.4%
9. Tubas2.2%
10. Qalqilia2.7%
11. Salfit2.0%
12. North Gaza11.1%
13. Gaza City6.0%
14. Deir El - Balah5.2%
15. Khan Yonis6.0%
16. Rafah5.2%

15) Average age of the sample: (32.7) Years.
16) Number of Years of Study: (11.8) Years.
17) Number of individuals living in the same house (including all ages)
(7.7) persons.

18) Sample distribution according to residential area:
Total
1. West Bank66.2%
2. Gaza Strip33.8%

Methodology:
A stratified 3-stage cluster random sample of 1198 individuals 18 years or
older was selected from the West Bank (including East Jerusalem) and Gaza
Strip. The first stage involves selecting 60 clusters with populations of
1,000 or more individuals (after stratification by district and type of
community- urban, rural, and refugee camp) with probabilities proportional
to size (PPS). The second stage involves selecting 10 households in each of
the chosen clusters. Stage 3 involves selecting one individual in each
household Last Birthday Method. Face-to-face interviews are then conducted
with the selected individuals.

PCPO Profile:
The Palestinian Center for Public Opinion (PCPO) was founded in February
1994 in Beit Sahour by Dr. Nabil Kukali, who becomes the president for this
center since that time. After the arrival of the Palestinian Authority (PA),
the PCPO was registered as a research center under license number (2/##).
The Palestinian Ministry of Information issued the license that permits
establishing satellite offices elsewhere in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
The PCPO has a team of well-trained interviewers throughout the Palestinian
territories. It is dedicated to conducting public opinion surveys workshops
and focus group sessions on various topics, and rendering services in the
field of investment, including feasibility studies.

Contact Person: Dr. Nabil Kukali
Tel: 02 2774846, Telfax: 02 277 2034, Fax: 02 2774892
Mobile: 0547 216643 / 059726878
Email: kukali@p-ol.com