2 January 2005
PRESS RELEASE
Palestinian Public Opinion Poll

One Week Before Palestinian Presidential Elections:
65% for Mahmud Abbas and 22% for Mustafa Barghouti

These are the results of the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian
Center for Policy and Survey Research in the West Bank and the Gaza
Strip on Thursday and Friday 30 and 31 December 2004. Total size of the
sample is 1319 adults interviewed face to face in 120 randomly selected
locations. Margin of error is 3% and rejection rate 2%.

For further details, contact PSR director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki or Ayoub
Mustafa, at Tel 02-296 4933 or email pcpsr@pcpsr.org.

* Among those planning to participate in the presidential elections,
65% say they will vote for Mahmud Abbas, 22% for Mustafa Barghouti,
5% for all other candidates combined, and 8% remain undecided.
* Popularity of Mahmud Abbas increases in the Gaza Strip (70%)
compared to the West Bank (62%), among men (68%) compared to women
(62%), among supporters of Fateh (84%) compared to supporters of
Hamas and the PFLP (51% and 24% respectively), among the
illiterates (75%) compared to those with BA degree (64%), among
employees, craftsmen, laborers and the unemployed (76%, 73%, 69%
and 69% respectively) compared to students (53%), among those
working in the public sector (75%) compared to those working in the
private sector (66%), and among the married (67%) compared to the
unmarried (59%). Popularity of Mustafa Barghouti increases in the
West Bank (24%) compared to the Gaza Strip (19%), in cities (26%)
compared to villages and refugee camps (20% and 19% respectively),
among women (25%) compared to men (19%), and among supporters of
the PFLP (65%) compared to supporters of Fateh and Hamas (10% and
32% respectively).
* A majority of 71% believe that Mahmud Abbas is the most able among
all candidates to reach a peace agreement with Israel; 61% believe
he is the most able to improve economic conditions; 60% believe he
is the most able to enforce law and order; 50% believe he is the
most able to protect national unity; 42% believe he is the most
able to protect the right of return; and 26% believe he is the most
able to keep the armed intifada going.
* If Marwan Barghouti nominated himself, 38% of the public say they
would have voted for him (34% of Abbas' voters and 54% of Mustafa
Barghouti's voters say they would have voted for Marwan Barghouti).
If Marwan Barghouti was a candidate, the voting results, based on
current intentions, would therefore have been as follows: 43% for
Marwan Barghouti, 39% for Mahmud Abbas, 9% for Mustafa Barghouti,
3% for all other candidates combined, and 7% are undecided.
* If the choice in these elections were between Mahmud Zahhar (of
Hamas), Marwan Barghouti, and Mahmud Abbas, public opinion would be
divided as follows: 37% for Abbas, 29% for Marwan Barghouti, and
19% for Zahhar.
* 49% support and 49% oppose the views of Mahmud Abbas calling for an
end to the militarization of the intifada and cessation of the use
of arms.
* Support for Fateh reaches 41%, Hamas 20%, and nonaffiliated 28%.
The combined total for all Islamists (Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and
independent Islamists) reaches 26%. Support for Hamas increases in
the Gaza Strip to 28% and decreases in the West Bank to 15%.

End of Press Release