Background: Israel sees dropping security as win-win situation

Aaron Lerner Date: 30 January 2005

The Sharon administration's decision to rapidly drop security measures is
being explained as driven by the overarching interest to insure that in the
eyes of the Bush Administration the "ball" is on the Palestinian side of the
court and that in the case of Palestinian failure that that failure cannot
be blamed on Israel.

Israel sees this as a win-win situation: if somehow the PA security forces
somehow rise to the occasion and stop terror attacks and also begin taking
effective measures to break up the terror infrastructure then Israel will
benefit from the ongoing quiet. On the other hand, the argument goes,
Israel is so radically dropping security measures that if the PA cannot or
doesn't not want to fill the gap the situation will deteriorate to the point
that the Bush Administration will allow Israel a free hand - not only in
operations to clean up after the "experiment", but more importantly - in
delineating post-Gaza retreat security regimens, specifically control of the
"security envelope" around what is to become an entity with some kind of
sovereignty.

A few score dead Israelis over the next few months might be troubling, to an
extent, on a domestic level, but such losses could be written off as PA
"growing pains" that should not impact policy. On the other hand, the
argument goes, the wholesale abandonment of security measures could quickly
lead to a level and scope of Israeli casualties that Bush and Rice could not
ignore.

It should be noted that the Israeli move is essentially an open invitation
for the Palestinian production and deployment of rockets in the West Bank
that could hit cities in the center rather than periphery of Israel. Rocket
makers in the Gaza Strip can also exploit the absence of the IDF to extend
missile range to reach strategic targets in Ashkelon and beyond.

If Israel maintained some degree of security control to protect its citizens
it could take many months - if not longer - for the Palestinian militias to
reach critical mass. Dropping security accelerates the process, creating a
situation that even as early as March/April the militias may be so heavily
armed that they will ignore those Palestinians who argue for restraint until
at least Israel retreats from the Gaza Strip and northern Samaria under
arrangements imposed by the Quartet rather than terms set unilaterally by
Israel.

Unfortunately, as is the case with most Israeli strategies, the above
assumes that the other player doesn't also move his chess pieces. It is not
beyond the realm of possibilities that Israel may find itself burying its
dead while the world accept the spin that the true victims of Palestinian
terror are Abu Mazen and his administration.

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(Mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
Website: http://www.imra.org.il