Shabak warns of disastrous consequences of prisoner release (IDF in
pinstripes)

Aaron Lerner Date: 6 February 2005

Israel Radio defense correspondent Carmella Menashe reported this morning
that there is wall-to-wall opposition in the Shabak (ISS) to large prisoner
releases.

Opposition includes not only the senior officials but also the people
working in the field.

The Shabak officials cite two major consequences of the release program:

A decline in deterrence: terrorists considering action will assume that if
they are caught that they can expect to be released in a future round of
releases rather than remain behind bars.

A significant increase in skill level of the terrorists in the field: the
terrorists receive considerable training from their colleagues during the
course of their time in prison in the planning and execution of terrorist
attacks. Israel's experience with past releases is that the released
terrorists substantially strengthened and improved the ability of the terror
groups they returned to to carry out attacks against Israel.

The Shabak officials warn that the release would mean that the Herculean
efforts of the Shabak to capture the terrorists would be for naught and
suggest that Israel wait to see what happens with PA compliance before
taking this step.

While the Shabak position is anchored in considerations that are tied to its
role (their consideration of the operational impact), the position of senior
IDF officials favoring the release of the top pre-Oslo terrorists presented
by Menashe appears to be based solely on diplomatic considerations - a
return to the Oslo era confusion of roles during which IDF officials donned
pinstripes rather than fatigues.

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(Mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
Website: http://www.imra.org.il