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Tuesday, February 22, 2005
PCPO:Poll - The coming PLC elections and democracy

Poll No. 133
February 22, 2005

Dear Madame, Dear Sir

We are very pleased to forward to you the results of our latest poll no.
133, which has focused on a set of important issues for the coming
PLC-elections. The results express the wish of the Palestinian people for a
change and show democratic tendencies in the Palestinian society. We believe
that we have done a further step on the path of peace.

We very much appreciate your cooperation with us and please don't hesitate
to contact us for any further comments or inquiries linked to this poll.

Yours faithfully
Dr. Nabil Kukali

In the latest poll prepared by Dr. Nabil Kukali and conducted by the
Palestinian Center for Public Opinion (PCPO) on the election of the
Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC):
(61.2%) oppose the PLC decision revoking the women's quota.
(49.4%) support the nomination and election to be carried out by using the
electoral register only.
(47.7%) support the raise of the seats assigned for the proportional lists
from 30% to 50%.
(42.1%) would vote for the new PLC members, whilst only 9.9% would vote
only for the present PLC members.
(15.6%) consider piety as the most important quality for the election of
PLC candidates.
(43.8%) would vote for Fateh and 21.1% for Hamas in the coming
PLC-elections.

From Majd Kokaly - Information Section

In the latest poll prepared by Dr. Nabil Kukali and conducted by the
Palestinian Center for Public Opinion (PCPO) during the period from 14 - 17
February 2005, consisting of a random sample of 944 Palestinian adults over
18 years representing the various demographic specimens from the West Bank,
incl. East Jerusalem, and Gaza Strip, the following results are established:

A great majority (61.2%) of the Palestinian people, Dr. Kukali said, oppose
the PLC decision revoking the paragraph of the women's representation on the
electoral lists regarding the PLC seats. The opposition to this decision
among the females (72.1%) was much higher than that of the males (51.2%).
The predominant rate of (49.4%) of the respondents in this poll support the
nomination and election be carried out by using the electoral register only,
Dr. Kukali told. He added that Fateh movement is still the most popular
political organization scoring (43.8%), followed by Hamas (21.1%) and the
Palestinian National Initiative (PNI) with 4.6% in the third position.

The proportional representation system:

A substantial majority (53.0%) of the Palestinians support the PLC decision
at the first reading of the general law of the PLC elections, i.e. the
proportional representation system, which considers the Palestinian
territories as one constituency. (38.5%) oppose the decision and (8.5%)
refrain from answering.

The seats assigned to the proportional lists:

The poll has also revealed that (47.7%) support the demand of the political
parties and organizations as well as that of the civil institutions for
raising the rate of the PLC seats assigned to the proportional lists from
30% (i.e. 44 seats) to 50% (i.e. 66 seats) as decided by the PLC. (41.9%)
oppose that and (10.4%) have no opinion yet.

Election of the present and new members:

A majority (44.3%) of the respondents said that -in case the PLC elections
would run now - they would vote for some of the present members beside the
new ones. (42.1%) would vote only for the new nominees, whilst (9.9%) would
vote only for the present members of the Palestinian parliament, and (3.7%)
are noncommittal

Limit rate of representation:

However, (38.9%) of the respondents support the setting up of the limit rate
of representation for the proportional lists at national level at not less
than 1.5% in accordance with the demand of the political parties and the
institutions of the Palestinian society. On the other hand, (45.0%) of the
respondents are for keeping the rate of 2.0%, which has been decided by the
PLC, and (16.1%) declined to respond to this question.

In addition, (48.8%) of the respondents support the PLC decision raising the
number of the PLC members from 88 to 132, whilst (44.4%) oppose this
decision and (6.8%) have no opinion yet.

Age of nominees:

A plurality (53.9%) of the Palestinians oppose to the reduction of the PLC
nominees' age from 30 years to 25 years as decided by the PLC, whilst
(40.7%) support this age reduction and (5.4%) didn't decide yet.

Electoral and Civil Registers:

A substantial majority (49.4%) of the Palestinians support in the nomination
and election the use of the electoral register only. (47.5%) support the
joint use of both the electoral and civil registers, whilst (3.1%) of the
respondents still have no opinion.

The Women's Quota:

A great majority (61.2%) of the respondents oppose the PLC decision, which
revokes the paragraph of the women's representation in the electoral lists,
i.e. the revocation of the women's quota. (35.2%) support the PLC decision
and (3.6%) didn't make up their mind yet.

The qualities of the PLC candidate:

Regarding the question:" Upon voting for the election of your candidate to
the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC), how do you evaluate the
importance of the following qualities of your candidate"?, the following
answers were given:(15.6%) for piety, (14.5%) for the capability of taking
decisions, (12.9%) for honesty and uprightness, (12.2%) for the academic
degree, (9.2%) for his/her political and economical programs, (8.9%) for the
membership in a party, (8.4%) for the role of the candidate in the national
struggle era, (8.3%) for experience and qualification, (7.8%) for the
relationship and/or personal connections and (2.2%) for the geographical
area.

The Support for the Political Parties:

When asked "If PLC elections were being held today, which political party
would you vote for? (43.8%) of the respondents say they would vote for
Fatah, while (21.1%) for Hamas, (8.2%) for Independents, ( 4.6%) for the
Palestinian National Initiative, (4.4%) for the Popular Front for the
Liberation of Palestine (PELP), (4.1%) for the Islamic Jihad, (3.0%) for
the Democratic Front of the Liberation of Palestine (DELP), (2.1%) for FIDA,
(1.7%) for People's Party, (1.0%) for Liberation (Tahreer) Party, (0.5%) for
Palestinian Liberation Front, (0.4%) for Arab Liberation Front, (0.1%) for
Popular Struggle (Nidal) Front, (1.0%) for Other Parties, and (4.0%) say
they would vote for none.

When asked "if city and village council elections were being held today,
which party would you vote to? (43.2%) of the respondents say they would
vote for Fatah, while (21.7%) for Hamas, (7.9%) for Independents, ( 4.7%)
for the Palestinian National Initiative, (4.7%) for the Popular Front for
the Liberation of Palestine (PELP), (4.8%) for the Islamic Jihad, (2.5%) for
the Democratic Front of the Liberation of Palestine (DELP), (2.0%) for FIDA,
(1.8%) for People's Party, (1.0%) for Liberation (Tahreer) Party, (0.5%) for
Palestinian Liberation Front, (0.2%) for Arab Liberation Front, (0.1%) for
Popular Struggle (Nidal) Front (0.7%) for Other Parties, and (4.2%) say they
would vote for none.

Formation of a transitional government:

The Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP) has called in
its Gaza statement dated February 9, 2005 for the formation of a
transitional coalition government to supervise the PLC elections and secure
their integrity. Do you support this call or not? (19.5%) say they strongly
support, (50.7%) support, (13.1%) oppose, (9.1%) strongly oppose, and (7.6%)
express no opinion.

Democracy in the territories of the Palestinian Authority:

Responding to the question: "Up to which extent do you believe that the PA
territories are a democratic country?". Please give grades from

1 - 10, whereby figure (1) means just the start of the path towards
democracy and figure (10) means the highest degree of democracy.

The average of the "democracy standard" was determined at (4.77), which
means the Palestinian territories didn't reach yet the middle of the path
towards exercising the best forms of democracy.

Few facts about the poll

President of the PCPO, Dr Nabil Kukali, stated that the poll was conducted
February (14 - 17), 2005, and the interviews in that survey were carried out
face to face inside the respondents' homes, the choice of which is randomly
performed according to PCPO's long experienced scientific methodology. The
sampling error throughout the survey is found at (+/-19%). The percentage of
female respondents was (48%) whilst that of the male ones was (52%), and the
average age of the respondents was (31) years. The distribution of the
random sample among the residential areas of the respondents was (66.2%) in
the West Bank, incl. East Jerusalem, and (33.8%) in Gaza Strip. Dr. Kukali
said that the average size of the respondent families was (7.48)
individuals, and the percentage of married respondents in the sample added
up to (63.4%), while that of the single ones reached (31.3%), and that of
other cases was (5.3%).

Methodology:

A stratified 3-stage cluster random sample of (944) individuals 18 years or
older was selected from the West Bank (including East Jerusalem) and Gaza
Strip. The first stage involves selecting 60 clusters with populations of
1,000 or more individuals (after stratification by district and type of
community- urban, rural, and refugee camp) with probabilities proportional
to size (PPS). The second stage involves selecting 10 households in each of
the chosen clusters. Stage 3 involves selecting one individual in each
household using Last Birthday Method. Face-to-face interviews are then
conducted with the selected individuals.

PCPO Profile:

The Palestinian Center for Public Opinion (PCPO) was founded in February
1994 in Beit Sahour by Dr. Nabil Kukali, who becomes the president for this
center since that time. After the arrival of the Palestinian Authority (PA),
the PCPO was registered as a research center under license number (2/? ?).
The Palestinian Ministry of Information issued the license that permits
establishing satellite offices elsewhere in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
The PCPO has a team of well-trained interviewers throughout the Palestinian
territories. It is dedicated to conducting public opinion surveys workshops
and focus group sessions on various topics, and rendering services in the
field of investment, including feasibility studies.

Contact Person: Dr. Nabil Kukali
Tel: 02 2774846, Telfax: 02 277 2034
Mobile: 0547 216643 / 059726878
Email: kukali@p-ol.com

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