Weekly Commentary: The nightmare scenario - in the absence of an Israeli
trip wire

Aaron Lerner Date: 17
March 2005

"Calm until the Palestinians cannot get any more out of Israel via
diplomatic means"
Israel television Channel One Arab Affairs commentator Oded Granot
describing the significance of the Cairo Declaration on the Mabat news
broadcast - 17 March 2005

When considered within a time frame measured in days, today's "Cairo
Declaration" might be seen as a positive accomplishment for the Egyptians
who brokered an understanding that the various Palestinian terror groups won't
be shooting for a while. Yet this Egyptian move to provide for not only the
preservation but even expansion of these terror group's capabilities may
very well turn out in the long run to help supply the match that engulfs the
region in a war that so many of our experts are convinced none of the actors
really want.

Here is the nightmare scenario:

Palestinian forces in the West Bank and Gaza Strip exploit the "calm for
calm" period to develop offensive capabilities that dramatically improve
their ability to strike strategic Israeli targets and population centers.

Israel retreats from the Gaza Strip and northern Samaria with a Palestinian
"entity" of some sort taking over control by default.

Israel pulls out of the strategic Philadelphi Corridor, thus removing the
human Israeli "trip wire" that prevents the movement of Egyptian forces from
the Sinai into the Gaza Strip (the thin deployment of Israelis can't
physically stop a determined Egyptian move - but their presence has a
chilling effect on Egyptian cross border moves since the inevitable Israeli
casualties would be a casus belli). - .

When, as Granot so aptly put it, the Palestinians come to the conclusion
that they cannot get any more out of Israel via diplomatic means, they turn
to "resistance" with Israel blamed for not being sufficiently generous.

Israel first tries a "tit-for-tat" measured response only to find that it
only yields calls for an "end to the cycle of violence" with the leaders of
the Palestinian entity pleading weakness to excuse their failure to halt the
attacks against Israel while, at the same time, they call for Egyptian
assistance.

Israel steps up its operations, warning that the Jewish State is being left
no choice but to prepare to embark on a massive clean up operation to
restore the "pre-calm" balance.

The Palestinian leadership responds by calling on Egypt to come to the Gaza
entity's aid.

In the absence of the Israeli "trip wire' in the Philadelphi Corridor,
Egyptian President Mubarak succumbs to pressure from the street to aid the
Palestinian Gaza entity.

Instead of an Israeli "trip wire" keeping Egypt out of the Gaza Strip, the
Egyptian "human shields" in Gaza act as a "trip wire" that seriously changes
the consequences if Israeli operations continue.

And then?

All bets are off.

One thing is certain: the potential for disastrous results is magnitudes
greater than it was before Mr. Sharon opened his disengagement Pandora's
Box.

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(Mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
Website: http://www.imra.org.il