Interview: Palestinian Pollster Dr. Nabil Kukali

Aaron Lerner Date: 29 January 2006

IMRA interviewed Dr. Nabil Kukali, Director of the Palestinian Center for
Public Opinion (PCPO), in English, on 29 September 2006.

IMRA: What happened? [AL: Hamas' victory in the PLC elections was not
predicted by the polls - even the exit polls]

Kukali: I have just prepared a study of the elections that was published
today in Arabic in the Al Quds newspaper and will be available in two days
in English.

IMRA: An explanation for why people lied to the pollsters?

Kukali: There is not just one reason. There are around sixteen reasons that
they did that and they are covered in the report. The problem wasn't
limited to Hamas. We had problems with the others as well.

The people lied. They didn't tell the truth. That's all.

Because they were afraid.

Most of them were Fatah and independent voters who were afraid to say that
they would vote for Hamas.

IMRA: What were they afraid of? That the interviewers would report on them?

Kukali: Yes. They were afraid that their economic status and social status
would be jeopardized if they said that they were voting for Hamas and they
were Fatah.

IMRA: My concern, on a policy level, is that if people held back when they
were asked questions regarding who they were going to vote for that it is
also possible that the same kind of self censorship may be talking place
when people are asked questions about their feelings about military
activity. Maybe they feel that they don't want to sound as if they support
bombings so some of them hold back and say "I am against bombings" when they
really are for them.

Kukali: No. Not really. This problem is only is for the elections. When
you see the report you will see what I mean.

IMRA: So your feeling is that the problem with polling was limited to how
people planned to vote and not polling on people's attitudes on policy
questions.

Kukali: The problem that happened was only with regard to the elections.
Nothing else.

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(Mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
Website: http://www.imra.org.il