Weekly Commentary: Launching the policy debate in Israel

Aaron Lerner Date: 9 February 2006

With less than two month left before Israelis cast their ballots in the
national elections it remains painfully unclear if what may be the most
critical vote since the founding of the Jewish State will take place without
any serious policy debate.

As both acting PM Olmert and DM Mofaz made clear in recent presentations, if
Kadima forms the next government they intend to carry out major unilateral
retreats in the West Bank after establishing that the Palestinians continue
to fail to fulfill their Roadmap obligations to break up the terror
infrastructure.

These retreats are to ostensibly unilaterally "set" Israel's permanent
borders.

But as U.S. Secretary of State Rice made clear this week in her press
conference with FM Livni, while Israel can retreat as much as it wants, it
is America's position that Israel's permanent borders can only be set via
negotiations with the Palestinians.

As was the case before the retreat from Gaza, Olmert again makes no bones
that he is clueless as to who or what will fill the void - and doesn't care.

That's right. A Kadima headed government will retreat even if it means that
a sovereign Hamas state fills the void.

It is interesting to note that the Meretz Party now takes the position that
leaving a void by retreating is too dangerous. They propose that Israel
only withdraw if an international third party is willing and able to take
over control of the vacated territory.

Meretz is ostensibly to the Left of Kadima, but given Kadima's "retreat at
any cost" program it might be more accurate to place Kadima in the radical
fringe.

And what about border security?

Before the retreat from Gaza, the Sharon team was confident that
arrangements would be made to insure that the Palestinians would not be able
to exploit access to the outside world for the free movement of terrorists
or dangerous contraband.

They were dead wrong.

After the retreat the Sharon team buckled to pressure from U.S. Secretary of
State Rice and made the critical precedent setting concession of giving the
Palestinians the final say on both who and what can pass through the Rafah
Crossing, turning the international observers into nothing more than window
dressing. An arrangement that is supposed to be a model for the Gaza
airport and seaport.

The same thing would happen in the West Bank,

Yes, Olmert speaks vaguely about securing Israel's eastern border, but even
if he doesn't immediately abandon the entire Jordan Valley as part of the
retreat (as was the case with the Philadelphi Corridor, the narrow strip of
land separating between Egypt and Gaza that Israel abandoned as part of the
Gaza retreat) it is more than reasonable to assume that Olmert would quickly
yield to pressure to provide for a Palestinian controlled access way to
Jordan. An access way operating under the very same arrangements that the
Sharon team so recklessly accepted at the Rafah Crossing.

All of the elements for a hot debate are in place: a dangerous policy based
on a house of cards of assumptions that have already crumbled in Gaza.

But Olmert refuses to debate.

And the news media doesn't seem to care.

Can Netanyahu's campaign team raise interest in the policy debate in the
absence of Olmert?

There certainly is a clear and harsh message to be delivered: a vote for
Kadima is a vote for a reckless and unworkable policy that, if implemented,
would cost Israel dearly.

Yes, it isn't easy to break this up into the 8 second / 7 word chunks that
are unfortunately the upper limit of the attention spans of much of the
Israeli voting public.

But a skilled campaign copywriter can do it. That's what they are paid to
do.

The billboards, internet websites and public soundbites should already be
full of these chunks today.

Chunks that tell a unified story drawing voters to the conclusion that
Kadima's retreat plan is so profoundly dangerous that no other consideration
could justify casting a ballot in favor of Kadima.

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(Mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
Website: http://www.imra.org.il