Convergence to combat lines
By Ze'ev Schiff Haaretz 23 June 2006
www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/730477.html

It is possible that Israel will maneuver itself into a unilateral
implementation of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's vague convergence plan. Since
in essence, the plan is a unilateral withdrawal, it is important to clarify
to the public that the chances are the convergence lines will be Israel's
new combat lines. A leader who deceives himself and the public about this is
being irresponsible.

That is what happened with the lines of the disengagement from Gaza: They
turned into new combat lines - after the entire world had praised Ariel
Sharon for the withdrawal. The settlements were evacuated unilaterally,
without negotiations in which the Palestinians and Mahmoud Abbas could have
chalked up a political achievement. Israel retreated without getting
anything in exchange.

It is natural that Hamas chalked up a military achievement, as the group
that employed force and pushed Israel into the withdrawal. That is how
things look to the Palestinians. Their sense of victory increased because of
the Israel Defense Forces' continuing failure in the war against the
Qassams. Hamas' election victory only magnified its triumph.

The first to argue that the disengagement was conducted without
comprehensive groundwork was the former chief of staff, Moshe Ya'alon, who
warned about what was coming. Because of that, he was maneuvered out of the
chief of staff's office. Giora Eiland, the former head of the National
Security Council, reiterated what Ya'alon said. The disengagement may have
shortened the IDF's lines and saved money, but the savings will be spent -
after delays that outraged the state comptroller - on defensive
fortification of the communities around Gaza.

Now there is talk about a new unilateral convergence/withdrawal, as if
nothing had happened. It is not clear who is doing detailed preparatory work
on the convergence now, even as a contingency plan. I searched everywhere
for these experts and failed to find them.

With a new unilateral convergence, Israel will repeat its great mistake of
giving up on the demilitarization of any Palestinian territory from which it
retreats. Demilitarization was a key issue in every plan for an agreement
with the Palestinians and was discussed with them at length. The unilateral
convergence will give new momentum to Hamas, not to Abbas. And it will be a
failed strategic move, because Israel will endanger Jordan and the Hashemite
regime.

Jordan is beseeching Israel not to act unilaterally. It understands that
unilateralism would mean a continuation of the fighting, and that could
increase instability in Jordan. In Israel, such a move would strengthen
those demanding no withdrawal from the Jordan Valley. President Bush may
have called the convergence a bold plan, but anyone concerned about the
future of Jordan would do well to pressure Olmert to avoid such a unilateral
step.

Once the withdrawal lines turn into new combat lines, it will only be a
matter of time until the IDF moves into the towns and cities of the West
Bank in full force. All it would take is one Qassam landing at Ben-Gurion
International Airport. Qassam attacks on the coastal towns are a strategic
threat and might require indiscriminate attacks on the Palestinians. The
history of the conflict shows that there will always be extremists among the
Palestinians who will agree to commit suicide in a terror attack. This time,
Iran could assist in their desire to undermine the region's status quo.

To all this must be added the suspicion that Olmert does not really want to
negotiate with Abbas. It seems that he is ready to "talk" with him, but not
to negotiate. He is apparently afraid of a crisis early in the negotiations.
If Olmert is ready to withdraw, "to converge" and straighten lines, he
should do so through negotiations, with mutual understandings and
concessions made to Abbas personally. If he wants to evacuate settlements,
let him start evacuating the isolated settlements, in addition to getting
rid of the illegal outposts.