Analysis: For Israel, the conflict in Lebanon is a must-win situation
By Ze'ev Schiff Haaretz 26 July 2006
www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/743169.html

While we analyze the individual battles and the stages of this campaign, we
must not forget the most important aspect of this war: Hezbollah and what
this terrorist organization symbolizes must be destroyed at any price. This
is the only option that Israel has. We cannot afford a situation of
strategic parity between Israel and Hezbollah. If Hezbollah does not
experience defeat in this war, this will spell the end of Israeli deterrence
against its enemies.

We did not choose this war, but we have reached a strategic crossroad.
Following two weeks of fighting, Israel has still not achieved its main
goals on the battlefield. The talks about a political solution are still in
their early stages. At the same time, Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan
Nasrallah has issued a declaration from his lair that he intends to move on
to the stage that includes launching long-range rockets at Israeli towns
south of Haifa.

Hezbollah seeks to step up the war of attrition against civilian targets so
that Israel will accept a vague cease-fire that will serve as a stepping
stone for future attacks on Israel. Such a cease-fire should not be
accepted.

Iran is known to be demanding that Syria increase its support for Hezbollah
in order to enable it to better resist the pressure from the Israel Defense
Forces. Just as the United States would like Israel to defeat Hezbollah,
Iran does not want the organization destroyed and is doing everything in its
power to prevent this. This shows that the military struggle has still not
reached its peak, nor have the diplomatic efforts.

It is important for the Israeli public to know that there are critical
issues to be decided. What matters is not the future of the Shiite town of
Bint Jbail or the Hezbollah positions in Maroun Ras, but the future and
safety of the State of Israel. This struggle will also determine Iran's
position in the Middle East and its role among the Arab states. Some of the
Arab states recognize this fact and do not wish Hezbollah to emerge
victorious in this campaign. Their stance does not stem from love of Israel,
but from concerns for their own future.

If Israel's deterrence is shaken as a result of failure in battle, the
hard-won peace with Jordan and Egypt will also be undermined. Israel's
deterrence is what lies behind the willingness of moderate Arabs to make
peace with it. Hamas, which calls for Israel's destruction, will be
strengthened and it is doubtful whether any Palestinians will be willing to
reach agreements with Israel. Therein lies the link between the fight with
Hezbollah and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

There is also a link between Israel's deterrence and what the Israeli public
feels, as well as what it is fed. Unfortunately, over the past few days, a
new national sport has emerged in the Israeli media: criticizing the IDF to
the point of humiliation and unearthing failures, real or otherwise. The war
has barely started, yet there are already calls for a commission of inquiry.
If this had been the case during the War of Independence, we would not even
have managed to take Jaffa.

My colleague Yoel Marcus wrote in his latest article that we must win, but
added in the final paragraph that the IDF is a "stupid army." A stupid army
has no chance to win this war. I do not agree with the conclusion that the
IDF is a stupid army. It is one of the most sophisticated modern armies, and
its capabilities are broad. In the 1982 Lebanon War, the IDF was smarter
than its leaders, who led Israel into that war.

There is a whole generation in Israel that may not recall how many useless
cease-fire agreements were signed in Lebanon. The most significant, which
followed the 1978 Litani Operation, established UNIFIL. Israel does not need
another cease-fire of this sort in southern Lebanon; it needs a new reality
that, at the least, will distance Hezbollah's military wing from this area.
This is clear to U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, but Nasrallah and
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad are trying to prevent it.