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Wednesday, March 7, 2007
Peace Index Poll: February 2007: 56%:40% impossible to reach settlement with PA government based on the principle of two states for two peoples

Peace Index: February 2007
So who's going to destroy Iran's nuclear reactor?

By Prof. Ephraim Yaar and Prof. Tamar Hermann Jaaretz 7 March 2007
www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/834084.html

Despite the intense recent criticism of the functioning of the government,
the Jewish public appears to support its overall policy on foreign- and
security-related issues. Similar to Israel's official position, a majority
of the Jewish public thinks the establishment of the Palestinian unity
government reduces the chances of reaching a political settlement, and does
not believe an agreement based on a two-state solution can be reached with
this government. A large majority also supports the official policy of not
negotiating with the Palestinian unity government until it recognizes Israel
and fulfills the Quartet's other conditions, particularly fighting terror.
At the same time, though, the prevailing opinion is that Israel cannot allow
the present situation to continue and must make greater efforts than in the
past to reach a political settlement with the Palestinians.

On the Syrian issue, as in the past, the dominant position is against a
peace agreement in return for a full withdrawal from the Golan, and a
majority also supports not responding to the Syrian initiative to renew
negotiations as long as it supports Hezbollah and other terror
organizations. The Syrian approach is seen as resulting from weakness and
not from a genuine desire for peace. At the same time, the widespread
assessment is that Israel's policy stems mainly from the United States'
opposition to negotiating with Damascus because of its position on the Iraqi
issue, though Israelis believe it was right to accede to the American demand
even if the Israeli leadership sees things differently.

Flying solo?

On Iran, the unanimous view is that its nuclear armament constitutes an
existential danger to Israel, and a small majority also says Israel should
attack the Iranian nuclear facilities even if it has to do so alone. Again
similar to the official position, the majority favors adhering to Israel's
traditional policy of ambiguity regarding its nuclear capacity.

In the domestic sphere, the Jewish public continues its overwhelming support
for rooting out corruption in the public sector, and only a small minority
thinks these efforts are excessive and harm the government's ability to
function.

These are the main conclusions of the Peace Index survey that was carried
out on February 26-27 2007.

About 55 percent of the Jewish public now believes the establishment of the
Palestinian national unity government reduces the chances of reaching a
peace settlement and only 25 percent believes its establishment will
increase those chances (the rest have no opinion on the matter). Note: There
is a majority for this view among all the parties. Fifty-six percent of the
Jewish public also sees it as impossible to reach a settlement with this
government based on the principle of two states for two peoples, compared to
40 percent who think it is possible. Interestingly, on this question, in
contrast to the previous one, there is an opposite majority among voters for
Meretz and Labor who, unlike the rest of the parties, do not see an
agreement based on the two-state principle as impossible. An unequivocal
majority - 83 percent - says the Israeli government should not recognize the
Palestinian unity government or negotiate with it as long as it does not
recognize Israel and fulfill the Quartet's conditions, especially in regard
to fighting terror. Here, the trend in Meretz and Labor voters' views is
identical to that of voters from other parties.

As expected, the views are different in the Arab sector. Here a majority of
people, albeit not large (52 percent), believe the establishment of the
Palestinian unity government increases the chances for a settlement, and a
majority of 64 percent say a settlement can currently be reached based on
the principle of two states for two peoples. Only about one-fourth think
Israel should avoid contact with the unity government as long as it has not
recognized Israel and fulfilled the Quartet's conditions.

Nevertheless, the dominant view - 63 percent of the Jewish public and 86
percent of the Arab public - is that the present situation is dangerous for
Israel, and it should make greater efforts than in the past to reach a
political settlement.

Also on the Syrian issue, the hawkish line - similar to the government's
position - holds sway among the Israeli Jewish public. Only about one-fifth
of people favor peace and a full withdrawal from the Golan Heights and only
41 percent believe Israel should respond positively to Syria's call to
return to negotiations even if it has not stopped supporting Hezbollah and
other terror organizations.

Conversely, 52 percent think Syria's call stems from weakness and Israel
should not respond positively. At the same time, the public is aware of the
link between the United States' policy against negotiations with Syria since
Damascus supports organizations that are attacking the U.S. forces in Iraq,
and the Israeli government's position on this question. The leading view -
49 percent - holds that Israel is mainly acceding to the American demand on
this matter, while only 37 percent of people see Israel as taking an
independent position.

'Willing submission'

However, this is a case of "willing submission" since the majority - 52
percent - think Israel is right to accede to the American demand not to
engage in contact with Syria on a settlement, with only 36 percent saying it
should not accede if the Israeli government's position is different from the
American one. Only among Meretz voters does a majority - 54.5 percent -
assert that Israel should not follow the American demand on this issue.

In the Arab sector, the picture is different. The majority - 81 percent -
support the formula of full peace for a full withdrawal from the Golan, and
73 percent think the Israeli government should respond positively to Syria's
call to return to the negotiating table without stipulating that it end its
support for Hezbollah and other terror organizations. Here, too, only a
minority - 23 percent - see Israel as taking an independent stance and the
majority - 67 percent - see it as going along with an American dictate.
However, unlike in the Jewish sector, in the Arab sector the majority - 65
percent - say Israel should not accept the American position on the issue.

On the Iranian issue, too, the Israeli Jewish public sees eye to eye with
the government's position. Eighty-two percent of people believe Iranian's
nuclear armament constitutes an existential danger to Israel. And a
majority - albeit smaller at 48.5 percent - say Israel should attack Iran's
nuclear facilities and destroy them even if it has to do so on its own.

Interestingly, in the Arab sector, as well, a majority, albeit not large -
53 percent - view the Iranian armament as an existential danger to Israel,
but only a tiny minority - 8 percent - favor Israel attacking the Iranian
facilities even by itself.

Having touched on the nuclear issue, this time we looked into the Israeli
public's position on Israel's traditional policy of ambiguity. The Jewish
public shows clear support for ambiguity among voters for all parties, with
62 percent in favor of maintaining this policy. In the Arab sector, however,
the majority of people - 54 percent - think Israel should openly declare
that it has nuclear weapons.

As in recent months, we again found that a majority - both in the Jewish (64
percent) and Arab (55 percent) publics - support continuing the efforts to
expose corruption in the public sector with only a minority seeing these
efforts as excessive. At the same time, in both publics only a small
majority (47 percent vs. 44 percent in the Jewish public, 50 percent vs. 42
percent in the Arab public) believes these efforts will bear fruit.

The Peace Index project is conducted by the Tami Steinmetz Center for Peace
Research and the Evens Program in Mediation and Conflict Resolution at Tel
Aviv University, headed by Prof. Ephraim Yaar and Prof. Tamar Hermann. The
telephone interviews were conducted by the B. I. Cohen Institute of Tel Aviv
University on February 26-27, 2007 and included 590 interviewees who
represent the adult Jewish and Arab population in Israel (including the
territories and the kibbutzim). The sampling error for a sample of this size
is 4.5 percent.

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