Background: Palestinian Chess Masters Vs. Israeli Tic Tac Toe Players?
Dr. Aaron Lerner Date: 27 January 2008

The tip of the iceberg:

Hamas "had been cutting through the base of the metal wall with oxyacetylene
torches for months, working in the daytime and behind screens to avoid
attracting attention" James Hider in Rafah The Times [UK] January 24, 2008
www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article3241428.ece

Israel Radio reports this morning that 20 Palestinians with explosives
captured by Egypt in Sinai were equipped with sophisticated devices to
monitors Egyptian security communications.

And while Deputy Minister of Defense Matan Vilnai (Labor) tried to reassure
listeners to Israel Radio's morning news magazine that the threat of
anti-aircraft missiles smuggled into Gaza is nothing new, this is hardly
reassuring considering that this retired IDF general back on 8 May 2001
explained on Israel Radio that Israel should not be concerned if the
Palestinians have Strella anti-aircraft missiles since "they do not endanger
people - just aircraft".

It would be foolhardy to work on the assumption that the last page of the
Hamas playbook is the fall of the wall.

It would be an insult to think that they did not preposition a stunning
supply of weapons and other "balance breaking" material in the Sinai and
elsewhere to be moved into Gaza in the wake of the fall of the wall. The
large convoys of trucks streaming across the Suez Canal to resupply Rafah
could readily provide cover for the delivery of items of dimensions well
beyond the capacity of even the best smuggling tunnels.

And while Israeli security officials did ultimately issue press releases to
protect Israel's essentially undefended border with Egypt (people in the
area of the border saw no IDF forces), it would be reasonable to expect that
in the months Hamas worked on preparing the wall to crumble that it also set
up the infrastructure required to exploit the fall of the wall to the
maximum in moving material and forces into Israel via the open Sinai-Israel
border.

Hamas most certainly also has given considerable thought to how this should
play out in the diplomatic arena as well in order to best exploit the
situation.

And what of Israel?

Is this another case of Palestinian Chess Masters Vs. Israeli Tic Tac Toe
players whose working assumption is that the Arabs never move pieces on the
board?

If there are chess players on the Olmert team they are busy working on
something much more important than Israel's security. They are working 24/7
on Olmert's surviving the Winograd Report.

And they are working feverishly to update the playbook to attack the real
enemy.

Don't be surprised to find the media running headlines in the days after the
Winograd report exposing the financing behind Uzi Dayan and the reserve
soldier campaign with diagrams somehow linking it to Netanyahu.

Given past experience the playbook probably also includes death threats to
Prime Minister Olmert anonymously spray painted on a wall or two in
Jerusalem with the Shabbak increasing security for Olmert.

Yes, there are chess player in Jerusalem. But they have more important
things to worry about this week than Israel's security.

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(Mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
Website: http://www.imra.org.il