Weekly Commentary: Thinking beyond 24 hours: why Egypt can't control Gaza

Dr. Aaron Lerner Date: 31 January 2008

Egyptian control of the Gaza Strip would have a serious impact on Israel's
security while significantly increasing the possibility of dangerous
conflict between the Jewish State and its most powerful neighbor.

Third parties interested in raising tension between Israel and Egypt would
use surrogates in Gaza to heat up the border to suck Israel into conflict.
One shudders to think of Israel's options should it find itself facing an
ongoing security nightmare with Egyptian officials more angry about Israeli
complaints than interested in actually solving the problem - as has been the
experience with Sinai-Gaza smuggling activity.

Were the Egyptians to take responsibility for security in Gaza they would
most certainly ultimately argue (with the world agreeing) that they need to
deploy at least the same kind of equipment (tanks, attack helicopters,
etc.), forces and military infrastructure (bases, fortified positions, etc.)
as Israel did before it retreated.

The very same Egyptian army deployed to secure the Gaza Strip would be
poised to strike Ashkelon, Ashdod and much of the rest of the country that
lies within just a few kilometers with no natural or other significant
barriers in the way.

Those suggesting that the current Egyptian regime, though it devotes
literally billions of dollars preparing to ultimately attack Israel (or as
they put it - an unnamed enemy located to the east of the Suez Canal), can
be relied on to maintain its commitment to peace with the Jewish State
cannot predict with any degree of certainty just how long either the regime
or its commitment will last.

When one considers the myriad of social and economic challenges Egypt faces
and will continue to face for many years to come as well as the growing
strength of radical Egyptian groups as well as overall uncertainty regarding
the future composition of the region, it would be sheer folly to base policy
on the working assumption that circumstances would never develop in which
Egyptian Army deployed in Gaza would unleash its power against Israel.

Even if they were not to join the fray, the very presence of the Egyptian
Army in Gaza could have a serious impact on Israel's ability to allocate its
limited military resources to effectively face a security challenge from
other states.

Introducing Egypt to the Gaza Strip may bring quiet for a day, but policy
makers have to think beyond the next headline. We have enough on our hands
already without having to add to it the potential nightmares such a move
could bring.

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(Mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
Website: http://www.imra.org.il