Excerpts: ME political upheaval.Iran says "No.---- 5 May 2008

+++THE DAILY STAR (Lebanon) 5 May '08:"Is the Middle East state system about
to
disintegrate?"By Joschka Fischer, Germany's Foreign Minister and Vice-
Chancelor 1998-2005
QUOTES:"political Islam replacing
secularism while skilfully integrating social issues with revolutionary
anti-Western nationalism"; "a confrontation between Iran and Saudi Arabia
for sub-regional supremacy"

EXCERPTS:

. . . A democratic, pro-Western Middle East is not in the cards.
But, while things are not developing as American neoconservatives had
intended, they are nevertheless developing. The historical failure of the
Iraq war, the demise of secular Arab nationalism and the soaring oil and gas
prices have wrought profound changes in the region. From Damascus to Dubai,
from Tel Aviv to Tehran, a new Middle East is now emerging.
The old Middle East arose from the borders and political identities created
by the European powers after the fall of the Ottoman Empire in 1918. Its
driving ideological force was a European-inspired secular nationalism, which
strove for political and social modernization through top-down government
action. This type of nationalism, or "Arab socialism," reached its apex
during the Cold War, when it could lean on Soviet military, political, and
economic support.
Its end came with that of the Soviet Union, as the region petrified into
authoritarian, corrupt, and inefficient military regimes and dictatorships.
The end of the Soviet Union also triggered a profound military crisis in
many Arab states: Without Soviet support as an external guarantor of their
military capabilities, the nationalist regimes were no longer able to keep
pace with military modernization.
Nationalist regimes thus gradually lost domestic popular legitimacy,
creating a vacuum that non-state actors have now largely filled. The
ideological forces and the currency of power have also changed, with
political Islam replacing secularism while skillfully integrating social
issues and revolutionary, anti-Western nationalism.
Today, the old Middle East can still be found in Syria, Egypt, Yemen,
Tunisia, Algeria, and Fatah-controlled Palestine. The new Middle East
includes Dubai, the Gulf emirates, and Israel, as well as Hizbullah, Hamas,
and jihadist terrorism - and, partly, Iran and Saudi Arabia. Jordan and
Morocco are also trying to associate themselves with the new Middle East.
Obviously, as these examples suggest, "new" does not necessarily mean
better, but simply different and more modern. Indeed, modernization by no
means implies a solution to the conflicts that continue to fester in the
region. Instead, these conflicts are themselves "modernized," which could
make them even more dangerous than in the past.
An aspect of such modernization could be seen in the 2006 Lebanon war
between Israel and Hizbullah, where tank warfare was rendered obsolete by
missiles and Katyushas. At the same time, non-state actors, such as
Hizbullah, Hamas, and Al-Qaeda, have taken the place of traditional armies,
and suicide bombers equipped with roadside and car bombs or explosive belts
have replaced guerrilla fighters with their Kalashnikovs.
Perhaps the most important change is the shift in the region's political and
military center of gravity. While Israel, Palestine, and Lebanon defined the
most important hot spots in the old Middle East, regional power and politics
in the wake of the Iraq war is now centered in the Persian Gulf. The
dominant conflict is no longer the Israeli-Palestinian struggle, but the
threat of a confrontation between Iran and Saudi Arabia for sub-regional
supremacy, and between Iran and the US for regional hegemony. Indeed, it is
by now virtually impossible to implement any solution to the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict without Iran and its local allies - Hizbullah
in Lebanon and Hamas in Palestine.
In a way, then, the war in Iraq forms the strategic and military bridge
between the old and the new Middle East. The US intervention has brought
about four far-reaching changes in the region. First, Iran's hegemonic
ambitions have been unleashed, and the country has been helped to a
strategic position that it could never have reached on its own.
Second, the democratization of Iraq has empowered the Shiite majority, which
in turn greatly strengthened Iran's influence. Indeed, the war in Iraq has
transformed the centuries-old Sunni-Shiite conflict by infusing it with
modern geopolitical significance and extending it to the entire region.
Third, the rise of Iran poses an existential threat to Saudi Arabia, because
the country's oil-rich northeast is populated by a Shiite majority. A Shiite
government in Baghdad, dominated by Iran, would, in the medium term,
threaten Saudi Arabia's territorial integrity - a scenario that the Saudis
cannot, and will not, accept.
And fourth, should Iran manage to become a nuclear power, the Saudis'
existential fears would dramatically escalate. More generally, the currency
of conventional military power in the Middle East would largely lose its
value, inevitably resulting in a regional nuclear arms race.
Emanating from this new situation is the threat of disintegration of the
whole Anglo-French system of states in the Middle East. The first candidate
is, of course, Iraq. Whether Iraq can be held together despite the ethnic
and religious confrontations that pit Kurds against Arabs and Sunnis against
the Shiites is one of the most pregnant questions for the new Middle East.
For Iraq's disintegration would be hard to contain; indeed, it could bring
about a thorough balkanization of the region.
Another important question is whether political Islam will move toward
democracy and acceptance of modernity or remain trapped in radicalism and
invocation of the past? The forefront of this battle is, at the moment, not
in the Middle East, but in Turkey; nevertheless, the result is bound to have
more general significance.
The emergence of the new Middle East may present an opportunity to establish
a regional order that reflects the legitimate interests of all the actors
involved, provides secure borders, and replaces hegemonic aspirations with
transparency and cooperation. If not, or if such an opportunity is not
seized, the new Middle East will be much more dangerous than the old one.
Joschka Fischer, Germany's foreign minister and vice chancellor from 1998 to
2005, led Germany's Green Party for nearly 20 years.

+++JORDAN TIMES 5 May '08::"Iran will not bow to Western pressure -Khamenei"
QUOTE:"Threatening Iran will not make it retreat"
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EXCERPTS:
TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran will not give up its rights in the face of Western
pressure, its supreme leader said on Sunday(4 May), two days after major
powers said they would make a new offer to convince Tehran to halt its
nuclear plans.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei...cited "some recent threats by arrogant powers", a
reference to the Islamic Republic's Western foes. The United States has
recently repeated it wants diplomacy to end the nuclear row but will not
rule out military action.
"We will not allow the arrogant ones to step on the right of this nation,"
he said.... "Threatening the Iranian nation will not make it retreat."
"This nation has chosen its path towards perfection, honour, complete
independence... and no threat can persuade (it) to stop its path," Khamenei,
Iran's top authority, told the crowd.
The five permanent members of the UN Security Council - the United States,
France, Britain, China and Russia - and Germany met in London on Friday and
said they would offer new incentives to encourage Iran to halt nuclear work.
The offer, whose details have not been made public, is based on a package of
economic and political benefits laid out by the six big powers in June 2006
but so far spurned by Iran.
Iranian officials have in recent weeks again rejected any suspension of the
atomic work in exchange for trade and other incentives offered to the
world's fourth-largest oil producer.. . .
===================================================
Sue Lerner - Associate, IMRA