Dahaf poll: Livni 47% Mofaz 45% in two person primaries, Hezbollah deal and
Talansky testimony hurt Olmert
Dr. Aaron Lerner 25 July 2008

Dahaf poll of 497 adult Israelis (including Israeli Arabs) conducted
apparently on 23 July 2008 for Yediot Ahronot.
Dahaf poll of 500 selected from the lit of 62,000 registered Kadima members
with an "adjustment" to account for the 10,000 Kadima members whose
registration in Kadima has yet to be checked by the party conducted on 23
July 2008 for Yediot Ahronot.
Statistical error +/- 4.5 percentage points.

If elections were held today how would you vote (expressed in mandates - no
indication how many were undecided)
Actual Knesset today in [brackets]

Option #1 Kadima headed by Livni
27 [12] Likud
14 [19] Labor
27 [29] Kadima headed by Livni

Option #2 Kadima headed by Mofaz
29 [12] Likud
16 [19] Labor
18 [29] Kadima headed by Mofaz

Did the captives deal with Hezbollah change your belief in the ability of
Olmert to lead the country?
National sample: No effect 59% Weakened 38% Strengthened 3%
Kadima member sample: No effect 55% Weakened 27% Strengthened 18%

Did Talansky's testimony change your belief in the ability of Olmert to lead
the country?
National sample: No effect 39% Weakened 58% Strengthened 2%
Kadima member sample: No effect 53% Weakened 36% Strengthened 9%

Who has the best chances to form an alternative government without
elections?
National sample: Mofaz 42% Livni 48%

Who in the "envelopes affair" is believable?
National sample:
Olmert: Yes 12% No 86%
Talansky: Yes 33% No 42%
Police: Yes 49% No 29%
Prosecution: Yes 57% No 32%

Who is most appropriate to serve as prime minister?
National sample:

Question 1: Netanyahu 41% Barak 14% Olmert 6% None of them 36%
Question 2: Netanyahu 35% Barak 13% Livni 27% None of them 22%
Question 3: Netanyahu 36% Barak 19% Mofaz 18% None of them 27%

If Kadima primaries were held today how would you vote?
Kadima members:
Livni 35% Mofaz 26% Olmert 18% Dichter 10% Shetreet 5%
And if Olmert doesn't run?
Livni 38% Mofaz 33% Dichter 13% Shetreet 8%

And if only Livni runs against Mofaz?
Livni 47% Mofaz 45%

Published in Yediot Ahronot on 25 July 2008