[Dr. Aaron Lerner - IMRA

So after quadrupling the rockets deployed in Lebanon the Syrians may have
taken a summer break on the level of the flow of weapons and have lowered
the alert levels of forces near the Golan. Hardly permanent moves. In the
same recent period we had border incidents involving Syrians but hey - as PM
Olmert put it - "you can't fool all of the people all of the time" - just
some of them. And unfortunately among the "some" number many on the Olmert
team.

By the way - the whole story reflects the stunning absence of any Israeli
initiative.

Why didn't Israel set some benchmarks such as Syria seizing and destroying
weapons on the way to Lebanon instead of the amorphous "stopping" the flow =
reducing the observed "flow" (what is not observed may be a different story,
but as Olmert put it "you can fool some of the people some of the time", and
there's no time like the present.)]

Jerusalem officials: Syria taking talks with Israel seriously
By Shahar Ilan, Barak Ravid and Yoav Stern Haaretz Last update - 08:06
29/07/2008
www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1006377.html

Senior officials in Jerusalem confirmed Monday that Syria has carried out a
number of measures in recent weeks that reflect that it is taking talks with
Israel seriously.

The sources refused to say whether they were referring to such measures as
lowering the alert levels of the Syrian army or stemming the flow of arms to
Hezbollah in Lebanon through its territory, but they did say that the
effects of the measures were "tangible."

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said he was pleased with the measures and with
the negotiations with Syria. He predicted that Israel's talks with Damascus
will soon cause Syria to come into conflict with Hezbollah and Iran. Olmert
said that when Syria reaches that crossroad it will have to decide which
direction to pursue.

"The Syrians will soon discover that you can fool some of the people some of
the time, but you can't fool all of the people all of the time," Olmert
said, paraphrasing U.S. president Abraham Lincoln.

Olmert said that he expects Hezbollah to try and avenge the death of top
figure Imad Mughniyeh, who was killed in a bomb blast in February in
Damascus that has been attributed to Israel.

Meanwhile, a Western source said Monday that Syria is interested in making
as much progress as possible with Olmert so that his successor will be bound
to whatever commitments he makes.

The sources in Jerusalem, meanwhile, said Syria is interested in having the
U.S. or a European country mediate talks with Israel. France, which
currently holds the Presidency of the Council of the European Union, is
considered a strong candidate for the role. Paris has improved its ties with
Syria over the past few months and brought it out of international
isolation. Syrian President Bashar Assad and his French counterpart, Nicolas
Sarkozy, discussed the matter at the Mediterranean summit earlier this
month.

Olmert and Assad were in close proximity for much of the summit and at one
point stood only meters away from one another. However, they never met or
shook hands. Assad seemed determined not to make contact with Israel's prime
minister.

"I knew Assad wouldn't want to be part of such a meeting," Olmert said. "We
sent messages in advance that we did not intend to make contact during the
summit. We thought such efforts would be artificial and unnecessary."

On the issue of finding a third party to mediate, sources say that Damascus
may agree to direct negotiations. Talks are currently being held via
indirect channels.

Meanwhile, Syria's Ambassador to the U.S., Imad Moustapha, Monday told the
American branch of Peace Now that a peace deal with Israel, Syria and
Lebanon was possible.

"Let's sit down, make peace and end this war status once and for all,"
Moustapha said. He later added that Israel had an opportunity to make peace
with Lebanon at the same time.

Moustapha, a senior Syrian policymaker, is considered close to Assad. Also
Monday, Haaretz learned that the U.S. State Department canceled a meeting
with a visiting Syrian delegation in Washington last week because it was
leaked to the press and because they believed the Syrians were behind the
leak.