Excerpts: Syria/Russia armaments deal?Iran shipping line has no deals with
US companies 12 September 2008

+++THE DAILY STAR (Lebanon) 12 Sept.'08:"From Russia with, well ... not
much",By Tony Badran*
QUOTE:"Russia clearly not giving Syria any special privileges"
FULL TEXT:Following Syrian President Bashar Assad's recent visit to Russia,
and on the heels of the Russian military assault in Georgia, there was a
flurry of commentary by regime-sanctioned "analysts" in Syria explaining
that this was a turning point in the balance of power in the Middle East.
The argument, also echoed in some Western media, was that Syria would use
Russian patronage to weaken the standing of the United States in the region
while enhancing Syria's position as it played Moscow and Washington off
against each other.
This assessment was made on the basis of Assad's hasty endorsement of the
Russian invasion of Georgia and his encouraging Moscow to confront the West,
NATO and Israel. Assad was the only leader in the world to make such
statements, outdoing even the Iranians. Assad also confidently announced he
would be seeking to acquire new Russian weapons systems - which Russia had
earlier refrained from selling to Syria. This included advanced
anti-aircraft missile systems, especially the SA-300 and the portable Igla
ground-to-air missiles. Assad also wanted the Pantsyr-S1 and Buk-M2
anti-aircraft systems, as well as anti-tank systems, which Syria was caught
transferring to Hizbullah during the 2006 Lebanon war, leading Israel to
complain to the Russians. Nor did Assad stop there. He pre-emptively
declared his readiness to host Russian advanced ground-to-ground missile
stations for the 280-kilometer range Iskander-E, as a counterweight to the
US missile shield in Poland.
That was the plan at least. But all evidence now points to the fact that in
contrast to Assad's rash statements, the Russians showed tepid interest in
what he proposed. The Russian response was evident in Foreign Minister
Sergei Lavrov's carefully worded comments after Assad met with Russian
President Dmitri Medvedev in Sochi. Lavrov said that Russia would "consider"
Syria's proposals for new arms purchases. However, this consideration would
only be for weapons of a "defensive character" that would "in no way upset
the regional balance of power."
Robert Freedman, an expert on Russian Middle East policy, wrote that Lavrov
could still be overruled, assuming he was being truthful to begin with.
However, for now his comments imply that the SA-300 and the Iskander-E
systems are off the table. The statements of Russia's acting ambassador to
Israel, Anatoly Yurkov, supported this conclusion. Yurkov told the Israeli
press: "Why in the world would we need to deploy our missiles [in Syria]?
Against whom? We have no enemies in the region."
Perhaps the most compelling indicator that Assad had fired blanks was
Syria's clumsy subsequent denial that it had requested the Iskander system
at all.
Aside from the missile stations, the Syrians also implied they would offer
Russian warships a permanent base in the Mediterranean by upgrading the
Tartus port. Other media reports ran wild with speculation about Russian
nuclear submarines and warships now being a permanent feature off the Syrian
coast. However, there too the payoff for Assad was apparently slight. Igor
Belyaev, the Russian charge d'affaires in Damascus, told reporters: "Our
navy presence in the Mediterranean will increase. Russian vessels will be
visiting Syria and other friendly ports more frequently."
That meant precious little. "Visiting" Syria is precisely what the Russians
have been doing in Tartus all along. In other words their ships will not be
permanently stationed there, which implies that Russia won't necessarily be
hurrying to upgrade the port, contrary to speculation. At best, Belyaev
seemed to say that the Russians would show up there more often - but such
activity won't be exclusive to Tartus, hence visits to "other friendly
ports."
The lack of exclusivity for Syria was another interesting aspect of this
episode, doing away with much talk of Syria reviving its privileged client
status with the Russians. Far less media attention was given to another
visitor to Russia at around the same time that Assad arrived there: Jordan's
King Abdullah. The king's visit was focused mainly on military and technical
cooperation. Jordan has developed a number of joint military ventures with
the Russians in recent years.
A few days later Premier Vladimir Putin - who had met with King Abdullah but
not with Assad - also received Saudi Prince Bandar bin Sultan. The Saudis
began discussing arms deals with the Russians last year, when Putin made his
historic visit to the kingdom when he was still president. Meanwhile,
Saudi-Syrian relations have sunk to their lowest levels in recent history.
Whatever the purpose of Bandar's visit, the Russians were clearly not giving
Syria any special privileges, and seemingly they were not interested in
placing all their eggs in Bashar Assad's basket.
Moreover, in contrast to the Syrians, the Saudis can actually pay for their
military merchandise. Reportedly, the Russians have demanded advance cash
payments for any Syrian purchases, especially since Russia was forced to
forgo some $10 billion owed to it by Syria from the Soviet era. The Syrians
still owe the Russians another $3 billion.
The Russians might well proceed with a previously negotiated deal on the
short-range Pantsyr-S1, and there already have been reports that an initial
shipment was delivered in June. This would be a noteworthy development;
however it would not alter the balance of forces in the region and would
still be a far cry from the ambitious wish-list Assad had splashed all over
the Russian media. Much more interesting will be to watch whether the
Russians proceed with the sale to Syria of the shoulder-fired Igla, given
how the weapons might well end up in the hands of Hizbullah.
In the end, the primary result of Assad's attitude toward Russia was that it
highlighted the Syrian president's impulsiveness. What he didn't seem to
realize was that there is a new world out there and that even Russia perhaps
does not relish going back to the reflexes of the Cold War. But it also
tells us something about Bashar Assad that he evidently does.
Tony Badran is a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of
Democracies and hosts the Across the Bay blog (www.beirut2bayside.
blogspot.com). He wrote this commentary for THE DAILY STAR.

+++JORDAN TIMES 12 Sept.'08:"Iran shipping line dismisses sanctions",
Associated Press
TEHRAN (AP) - Iran's state-owned shipping line is rejecting US accusations
it has transferred arms and other military-related cargo. The Islamic
Republic of Iran Shipping Lines also says US sanctions against it and its
affiliates will be ineffective because it has no deals with American
companies. The United States on Wednesday(10 Sept.) slapped financial
sanctions on the shipping line and 18 related companies for allegedly
helping to transfer military-related arms and cargo. That means any bank
accounts or other financial assets belonging to the company that are found
in the United States will be frozen. Americans are also barred from doing
business with the companies. The shipping line said Thursday "the
accusations by the US are sheer lies".
==========
Sue Lerner - Associate, IMRA