Israel: Iran speeds up missile production
Published: July 6, 2009 at 1:30 PM
http://www.upi.com/Emerging_Threats/2009/07/06/Israel-Iran-speeds-up-missile-production/UPI-37191246901438/

TEL AVIV, Israel, July 6 (UPI) -- Iran is driving to produce up to 1,000
long-range ballistic missiles with a range of 1,550 miles, as well as 500
mobile launchers, over the next six years, according to Israeli military
experts.

"The Iranians are making great efforts to obtains a significant number of
missiles," according to Tal Inbar, head of the Space Research Center near
Tel Aviv.

"They already talk of how one of the ways they will overcome (Israel's)
missile defense systems is by firing salvoes of missiles."

Iran's current production capabilities are not known with any great
exactitude, but these have been concerned primarily with the manufacture of
Shehab-3 intermediate range ballistic missiles.

The Israelis, who see Iran's nuclear and missile programs as an existential
threat, claim that Iran's missile development is more advanced than the West
believes.

At present, the liquid-fueled Shehab is the mainstay of the Islamic
Republic's strategic missile forces. Tehran is believed to have deployed
100-200 of these weapons, which have an estimated range of 1,250 miles.

But with the successful May 20 launch of a new ballistic missile, the
solid-fuel Sajjil-2, with a reported range of 1,200 miles, Western
specialists believe that Iran is now on the threshold of producing a new
generation of long-range missiles.

It is likely that Iran will concentrate its production capabilities on the
new missile. Solid-fuel missiles can be launched faster than liquid-fueled
systems, which can take up to an hour to fuel.

Thus solid-fuel missiles are harder to detect in launch mode than
liquid-fueled weapons, and thus less vulnerable to pre-emptive strikes.

A third ballistic missile, the Ashura, also solid-fueled, was unveiled in
2007 and test-fired in 2008. The Jerusalem Post reported on May 18 that the
two-stage Ashura was believed to have entered production, possibly to
replace the Shaheb-3.

However, some Western experts believe that the two-stage Sajjil-2 --
Sajjil-1 was test-fired in November 2008 -- may be another name for the
Ashura, intended to confuse the United States and Israel about Iran's
missile program.

Still, recent assessments of Iranian capabilities by two major think tanks
have sought to downplay the missile threat posed by Tehran.

The EastWest Institute in New York, a non-partisan organization that focuses
on global challenges, said Iran would not have a long-range weapon capable
of delivering nuclear warheads for many years.

The six U.S. and six Russian scientists who authored the report released May
19 said that Iran might develop a missile with a nuclear warhead and a
1,200-mile range in six to eight years.

But they concluded that it was "virtually impossible" to predict how long it
would take to produce a modern intercontinental ballistic missile.

Without considerable outside assistance and technology, it would be "at
least 10 to 15 years," they said, noting that there was no evidence that the
Tehran regime has even decided to go for an intercontinental ballistic
missile.

The International Institute for Strategic Studies in London noted that with
the Sajjil launch, "Iran appears to have established the industrial
infrastructure and technological foundation to begin efforts, on its own, to
support the eventual development, design and production of much larger, more
powerful rocket motors.

"If so, these developments are similar to those achieved by Tehran in the
nuclear arena, where Iranian engineers have mastered the ability to enrich
uranium sufficiently to power a civilian nuclear reactor, and established
the wherewithal to produce highly enriched uranium for a nuclear bomb in the
future, if so desired."

However, the analysis cautioned that considerable obstacles remain before
Iran can achieve assembly-line production of ballistic missiles.

"Before being able to deploy the Sajjil missile, Iran would first need to
establish a production line for solid-fuel rocket motors to strict
performance criteria," it said.

"This would require many static test firings and test launches over the next
three to five years. . Missile advances will not occur suddenly."