Analysis: New America Foundation Israel National Survey Questions Miss The
Point
Dr. Aaron Lerner 10 December 2009

When The New America Foundation commissioned a poll of Israelis in order to
promote their pro-peace agreement agenda (that's "peace agreement" rather
than "peace" because it is hardly a foregone conclusion that "peace" would
ultimately result from a "peace agreement) they tried to balance the poll by
including a section raising possible bad results from a peace agreement with
the Palestinians (see poll questions below).

And while the survey certainly found indications that Israelis were
pessimistic about Palestinian compliance (even Israeli Arabs think attacks
against Israeli would continue after a deal 69%:27% as compared to 82%:15%
among Israeli Jews and Russians), the poll questions themselves are
seriously handicapped by the mindset of the New America Foundation.

Here is what Israelis think as indicated time and again by polls designed by
Israelis:
"In reality, most of the Palestinians do not accept the existence of the
State of Israel and would destroy it if they could, despite the fact that
the PLO leadership is conducting peace negotiations with Israel."
Agree 63% Disagree 20%
The War and Peace Index - the Tami Steinmetz Center for Peace
Research and the Evens Program in Mediation and Conflict Resolution of Tel
Aviv University 1-3 December 2008 - Jewish respondents.

The folks at the New America Foundation can entertain the possibility that
the Palestinian leadership that they have shared many a confab with at
various 5 star locations around the globe might not be able to control their
pesky "extremists" - but it is beyond their comprehension to posit that
these fine highly educated mainstream Palestinians might actually opt to
join with others in the Arab world to destroy the Jewish State should
circumstances make this possible.

We Israelis aren't so naive.

=======================
New America Foundation
Israel National Survey

November 8-15, 2009
1000 Total Respondents

Q.58 If Prime Minister Netanyahu and Fatah reach a final status agreement,
do you think Fatah is capable of enforcing the agreement on the Palestinian
side?
Yes 35 No 55 (Don't know/refused) 9

[840 Respondents]
Q.69 (RUSSIAN AND JEWISH ONLY) Now, I'm going to read you some BAD things
that some people say will happen as a result of a peace agreement between
Israel and the Palestinians. After I read each one, please tell me how
likely or unlikely it is that this will happen.

Q70 The Palestinians will not be able to control the extremists on their
side who will continue to launch attacks on Israel
Likely 82 Unlikely 15

Q71 The peace will be a cold peace and not lead to real economic benefits
Likely 66 Unlikely 32

Q72 Israel will have to divide Jerusalem.
Likely 54 Unlikely 43

Q73 Israel will be weaker because we will have to withdraw from important
territory
Likely 55 Unlikely 43

Q74 Settlers will be removed from their homes and the Jewish people will be
dangerously divided
Likely 73 Unlikely 25

Q75 America says it will help secure the agreement, but it will disappear
when conflict returns
Likely 49 Unlikely 48

Q76 Palestinian terrorists will be released from Israeli jails and return to
violent acts
Likely 77 Unlikely 21

[160 Respondents]
Q.78 (ARAB ONLY) Now, I'm going to read you some OTHER things that some
people say will happen as a result of a peace agreement between Israel and
the Palestinians. After I read each one, please tell me how likely or
unlikely it is that this will happen.

Q78 The Palestinians will not be able to control the extremists on their
side who will continue to launch attacks on Israel
Likely.69 Unlikely 27

Q79 The peace will be a cold peace and not lead to real economic benefits
Likely 63 Unlikely 34

Q80 Israel will be less safe because it will have to withdraw from important
territory
Likely 50 Unlikely 47

Q81 Settlers and other extremists will not accept the agreement and cause
violence across the country
Likely 85 Unlikely 12

Q82 America says it will help secure the agreement, but it will disappear
when conflict returns
Likely 57 Unlikely 38

Q83 The quality of life will decline for Arabs living in Israel
Likely 63 Unlikely 35