Dr. Aaron Lerner - IMRA

So your Yossi Verter at Haaretz, just raring to go with a write up that is
going to use a simply devastating poll to attack those Neanderthals who
don't believe in the truth that he holds so dear - that he and all his
enlightened pals know is the absolute and incontrovertible truth (that if we
would just agree to withdraw to the '67 lines that there would be utopian
peace).

You already have prepared a some fantastic lines [in the Hebrew edition
version you can almost see the saliva dripping as he compared the Land of
Israel lobby to "the heroes of Peter Pan. It doesn't matter what the
diplomatic situation will be in the region, doesn't mater what is the policy
of their government, doesn't matter what the position is of their prime
minister and also doesn't matter to them even what they know themselves in
their own hearts - they insist on holding onto their childhood ideologies,
to repeat over and over the same lines from the previous century about Judea
and Samaria, the permanence of our holding the territory, our Father Abraham
and Mother Sarah, come what may."]

And to make the point you arranged for the following question to be included
in the poll.

"May our continued presence in the territories lead to a bi-national state?"

Oh boy. That's a sure winner.

It will be a perfect way to drive the message home that those Neanderthals
are completely out of touch with the nation.

A cross tab for Likud voters will no doubt show that even Likud voters know
the answer for that one.

And then comes the e-mail from an assistant to Prof. Camil Fuchs from the
Department of Statistics at Tel Aviv University.

The results:

"May our continued presence in the territories lead to a bi-national state?
Yes 28%
No 53%"

Oops.

The stupid Israeli public!

Those idiots!

Now what?

What a dilemma.

On the one hand, this is an incredibly interesting poll result. So from the
standpoint of being newsworthy, it certainly should be shared with the
readers of the paper.

On the other hand, it doesn't help the cause.

Can I just drop it altogether from the report?

Not so simple. After all, 491 people got a call for this poll and there is
a chance that one of them will see the paper and notice the censorship. Add
to that that the pollster will know we pulled a fast one. And someone in
the phone bank might tell.

So here is the solution: Don't mention it in the text of the write up in
either Hebrew or English. While the Hebrew version on internet includes the
tables (that include the result for this question), the English version
doesn't include tables. So the English speaking audience we are trying to
influence with our message can be spared the confusion of the result.

Once again. A message to those reading Haaretz in English: learn Hebrew!
http://www.haaretz.co.il/hasite/spages/1147585.html for the Hebrew

Here are the tables
Poll of 491 Israelis (including Israeli Arabs) 1-2 February 2010. If
elections were held today
Current Knesset seats in [brackets].
35 [27] Likud
26 [28] Kadima
14 [15] Yisrael Beteinu
10 [11] Shas
09 [13] Labor
05 [04] Nat'l Union
05 [05] Yahadut Hatorah
05 [03] Meretz
08 [11] Arab parties (Balad does get it)
03 [03] Jewish Home]

Compared to a year ago how do you feel today about:

Personal security:
Better 23% Same 60% Worse 14% Other 3%

Economic security
Better 17% Same 50% Worse 31% Other 2%

Corruption in Israel
Better 9% Same 40% Worse 41% Other 10%

Are you satisfied with the performance of the following:
PM Netanyahu: Yes 42% No 46%
FM Lieberman Yes 34% No 53%
DM Barak Yes 50% No 39%
Finance Minister Steinitz Yes 28% No 42%

Who is most appropriate to head Kadima?
Total: Livni 53% Mofaz 25%
Kadima voters: Livni 89% Moffaz 7%

Did recent reports on the prime minister's wife impact the standing of
Netanyahu?
Improved 6% Same 59% Worse 25% Other 10%

If journalist Yair Lapid established a party that he heads would you
consider voting for it?
Yes 23% No 54%

May our continued presence in the territories lead to a bi-national state?
Yes 28% No 53%

Who is more appropriate to serve as prime minister?
Netanyahu 35% Livni 27% Lieberman 8% Barak 7%

After Netanyahu stops serving as chairman of the Likud, who is most
appropriate to take his place?
Yaalon 17% Shalom 17% Saar 17% Steinitz 5%

After Barak stops serving as chairman of Labor, who is most appropriate to
take his place?
Herzog 25% Shelly Yacimovich 15% Braverman 12%

=========

One year on, most Israelis disapprove of Netanyahu
By Yossi Verter 5 February 2010
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1147695.html

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is losing altitude, according to the
Haaretz-Dialog poll published here. The results show that, for the first
time in a year, a majority of the public is dissatisfied with his
performance and questions his suitability as prime minister.

This is purely personal, not party-related. Likud under his leadership is
actually stronger: If elections were held today, the party would get 35
Knesset seats, eight more than its current total and 23 more than it
received in 2006. Netanyahu took a broken, shattered party that had been
split and decapitated by the predecessor of his predecessor - i.e., Ariel
Sharon - and brought it back to life. No one can take that away from him.

Every few months, this poll, conducted under the supervision of Prof. Camil
Fuchs from the Department of Statistics at Tel Aviv University, checks the
prime minister's political health. Since his election, Netanyahu had been in
pretty good shape. There were always more people who were happy with him
than those who were not, generally with an 8-10 point spread in his favor.
In the new survey, though, that situation has changed. When it comes to
suitability for the premiership, Netanyahu still ranks ahead of his rival,
Kadima leader Tzipi Livni. But the gap is narrowing: Not in her favor, but
to his detriment.

Two reasons for this leap to mind. One is the "Sara effect." In the past
three weeks, Netanyahu has been buffeted by negative, embarrassing reports
about his domineering wife and about him personally, as well as about how he
is dealing with her and about developments in his bureau.

But the main reason for the drop in his popularity is his decision to freeze
construction in the settlements - something no right-wing prime minister
before him ever dared to do. The dry facts tell the whole story: Netanyahu
is losing support among right-wing voters (though not in the Likud). At the
same time, he is gaining opularity among the center and the left. The voters
on the right side of the political spectrum are disappointed with him. They
still backed him after he declared his support for the two-state solution,
but once he took a concrete step they started to turn a cold shoulder.

The alternatives

After almost a year in the opposition, Tzipi Livni remains the only
significant political alternative to Netanyahu among the three large- or
medium-size parties - even though Kadima almost slipped through her fingers;
even though she is in the midst of a struggle against the party's No. 2,
Shaul Mofaz; and even though Kadima's impact as an opposition power is
negligible.

Fully 89 percent of Kadima voters prefer Livni over Mofaz. This finding
shows how cut off he is from Kadima's voters (or, in this case, from the
party's registered members, who determine its leadership). If Mofaz stays in
Kadima, runs and defeats Livni, he will transform the party into something
completely different from what it is today - he will make it a pale copy of
Likud.

But in the poll, Kadima loses three seats to Labor, which has nine sweet
seats, as opposed to six in the last Haaretz-Dialog poll, in November (and
13 in the last election). The reason: internal wrangling in Kadima. But the
new data also indicate that half of Kadima's voters - 14 Knesset seats -
would consider voting for a new party led by journalist and television
presenter Yair Lapid.

Lapid also would draw many people from Labor and Meretz: In total, based on
this survey, nearly a quarter of the country's voters would likely consider
giving Lapid their vote. At the moment, he is in a dream spot for a wannabe
politician. He is the presenter of the most watched current-events
television program on Friday night; he writes a column in the country's most
widely read weekend newspaper magazine; he is perceived as a victim because
of the proposed "Lapid bill," a move by his opponents to block him from
running in the next elections; he is gaining points from the well-publicized
troubles of Kadima and from the built-in wretchedness of Labor; and he has
just published a book about his late father, which became an instant
best-seller. All he has to do now is rescue two babies from a burning house
and nothing will be able to keep him from being elected prime minister.

On his way into the political arena, Lapid has to keep in mind the
experience of one person: Amnon Lipkin-Shahak, the former chief of staff.
Before he ran in the late 1990s, at the height of his popularity, the polls
gave a party headed by him 20-plus seats. But the moment he actually entered
politics there wasn't a mistake that he didn't make. Lipkin-Shahak ended up
as No. 2 in the Center Party, whose six seats faded away in the twinkling of
an eye. Lapid would do well to give him a call before he takes a commercial
break and doesn't come back.

The successors

Shimon Peres had Yitzhak Rabin (and vice versa) as his right-hand man.
Afterward he had Ehud Barak. Ariel Sharon had Benjamin Netanyahu. Each of
those prime ministers had a "natural" successor, someone who was
considered - by the political arena, his party and the media - as the one
and only possibility. Netanyahu has no one, no No. 2.

The Haaretz pollsters asked about potential successors in Likud and Labor
after the era of Netanyahu and Barak; the question was put to voters in
general and not to the registered members who will choose the party's
leaders. In Likud there are three potential heirs: Vice Prime Minister Moshe
Ya'alon, Vice Prime Minister Silvan Shalom and Education Minister Gideon
Sa'ar. The three are almost neck and neck, both among the general public and
among Likud voters.

Sa'ar, a young minister serving his first cabinet term, has leaped forward
and is now positioned alongside Shalom and Ya'alon, with Finance Minister
Yuval Steinitz faltering, well behind. In the face of Ya'alon's magnificent
military record (he was chief of staff) and of the senior government posts
Shalom held (foreign affairs, treasury), Sa'ar's success as education
minister is highly significant.

Among Labor and Meretz voters, only one successor to Barak looms at this
stage: Social Affairs Minister Isaac Herzog. He is well ahead of MK Shelly
Yachimovich and Minority Affairs Minister Avishay Braverman. Yachimovich, a
fairly new MK, is doing pretty well - on the assumption that she and her
colleagues will still have a party to lead.

The Labor Party shows a 50-percent increase - from six seats in the last
poll to nine in this one. But the whole center-left camp has 48 seats,
unchanged from the poll three months ago, whereas the right-wing bloc has 72
seats - also unchanged. In the current Knesset, the center-left bloc has 55
seats, as compared to 65 for the right. In short, a year after the
elections, the right-wing bloc still remains dominant.

A lobby revived

On Tuesday afternoon, in the old lecture hall of the Knesset, the Land of
Israel lobby was reborn. It was first established 22 years ago by Likud MK
Michael Eitan. A right-wing parliamentary body, its main effort was devoted
to tightening the settlers' hold on the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. Now,
with Gaza gone, MK Zeev Elkin (Likud) and MK Aryeh Eldad (National Union)
decided to recreate the lobby. Elkin is the chairman of the Likud faction
and the coalition, both of which are headed by a prime minister who declared
his support for the two-state solution and ordered a construction freeze in
the settlements. In the near future, Elkin will have to muster support for
that policy among the coalition members, while heading a body that preaches
against it.

The new lobby's basic principles include "strengthening Israel's hold
throughout the Land of Israel and particularly in Judea-Samaria,"
"preventing any harm from befalling the settlement project in
Judea-Samaria," "promoting legislation that will bolster settlement in those
regions," and "refashioning the policy of the defense establishment for the
benefit of promoting settlement in these regions." And so on.

In addition to a large number of MKs, the founding meeting was attended by
all the leaders of the settlement movement, Knesset Speaker Reuven Rivlin
(Likud) and two Likud ministers: Communications Minister Moshe Kahlon and
Minister without Portfolio Benny Begin, who is also a member of the "forum
of seven," the supreme body in the government. Both ministers expressed
support for the lobby's principles, which are totally at variance with those
espoused by Netanyahu. Begin even told the meeting: "In the months ahead, in
the years ahead, we shall have to work together, and work together we
shall."

Work for what? Against whom? Against what?

The other Likud ministers were no-shows, but sent touching messages of
support. "Strengthening our hold throughout the Land of Israel and in the
Golan Heights is a basic, existential and security need whose roots lie deep
in history," one minister wrote.

"Even though I am not there with you, my heart is definitely with you. May
you only increase and grow stronger," another poeticized. "We are there and
we will remain there thanks to our forefathers," said another. "We must
encourage settlement activity in all parts of the land," a fourth minister
asserted. And so on.

In fact, the only two ministers who did not send messages were Netanyahu and
Dan Meridor. One who did was Eitan, who founded the lobby in 1988. He wrote
Elkin that he believes the lobby's goals are more compatible with those of
the extremist National Union than with Likud and the coalition, that the
lobby is misguided and that its views are in "thunderous contradiction" to
Netanyahu's policy. "I suggest that you look for a different path," Eitan
wrote.

MK Eldad didn't know in advance what Eitan had written. At the start of the
meeting he solemnly informed those present that he would soon read the
letter sent by the founder of the original lobby, Michael Eitan. Everyone
applauded warmly. The letter was not read out. Who wants to be a party
pooper?

After the meeting, the settler leaders made their way to the MKs' cafeteria.
At the entrance, one of them ran into Ze'ev Boim, a former Herut and Likud
man, but of late in Kadima. "Ze'evik, join us, be part of the lobby," the
settler urged Boim.

"And what will we do there?" Boim asked.

"We will save the Land of Israel," the settler replied, and laughed loudly
and long.