Excerpts: Egypt's SCAF welcomes transfer of powers to parliament.Big
emerging economies will demand more global influence.EU names new Mideast
envoy. UNIFIL changes chiefs in Lebanon. Top Hamas official: never give up
Jihad. Syria gas price up 60%. Syria rejects Arab League plan.European
Nations say no Iran oil imports. Muslim Brotherhood to focus on fixing
economy, Arab League response Syria/ Impact on Jordan January 24, 2012
+++SOURCE: allAfrica.com via Egypt Daily News 24 Jan.’12:�Egypt: Tantawi -
We Transfer Legislative Power and Oversight to Parliament�
SUBJECT: Egypt’s SCAF welcomes transfer of powers to parliament
QUOTE: “Tantawi, head of the Supreme Council of Armed Forces (SCAF)
announced the transfer of the power of legislation and oversight to the
newly elected People’s Assembly�
FULL TEXT:Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, head of the Supreme Council
of Armed Forces (SCAF), announced the transfer of the power of legislation
and oversight to the newly elected People's Assembly, in a message to the
parliament on its inaugural session.
In the message read by Saad Al-Katatni, the parliament's Speaker, Tantawi
said, "I confirm in the name of the Supreme Council of that we are working
hand in hand under the banner of our dear country during what is left of the
transitional phase to achieve the goals of the glorious January revolution."
He added that he longs for the day an elected president takes the oath in
the parliament before the end of next June and the transfer of presidential
power to him is announced so the council can return to its original mission
of defending the council.
Tantawi called for choosing members of the constituent assembly from all
spectrums of people to draft a new constitution that establishes "the second
Jslamic republic
+++SOURCE: Saudi Gazette 24 Jan.’12:�(Big)Emerging economies must have more
clout, says Turki� Reuters
SUBJECT: Big emerging economies will demand more global influence
QUOTE: Saudi former intelligence chief:� Big emerging economies such as
China, India and Saudi Arabia will not aid the West in its financial crisis
unless they are given more influence in running the global economy�
RIYADH — Big emerging economies such as China, India and Saudi Arabia will
not aid the West in its financial crisis unless they are given more
influence in running the global economy, Prince Turki Al-Faisal, former
intelligence chief, said Monday[23 Jan.].
“The financial crisis and great recession were born in the West, developed
in the West yet hit hard throughout the world,� Prince Turki said in a
speech at the sixth Global Competitiveness Forum here.
He said this showed the need to give emerging economies more representation
and more authority in global bodies such as the Group of 20 nations, a forum
of the world’s major industrialized countries, and the Financial Stability
Board (FSB), which discusses regulation of banks and financial markets.
So far, however, organizations such as the FSB “have yet to take these new
realities into consideration�, while the G20 is making little headway in
coordinating economic policymaking around the world, he said.
The lack of influence of big emerging economies in international bodies
reduces their willingness to contribute money to fight the global crisis, he
warned.
The International Monetary Fund is seeking to more than double its war chest
by raising $600 billion in new resources to help countries deal with the
fallout of the euro zone’s sovereign debt crisis.
“What we can be certain of is that large developing nations will not agree
to provide additional funds without a greater say in the IMF, and this
applies to all global economic governance organizations,� Prince Turki said.
His speech criticized Western governments for “leveraging up� their
economies over the past six decades and letting their financial sectors
spiral out of control, saying the United States and the European Union would
continue to struggle with debt problems for five or 10 years.
Much of his criticism echoed comments by officials in China, another
emerging economy that is being asked to help fight the global financial
crisis.
Saudi Arabia, he said, would continue to play a stabilizing role but added
that because it faced its own challenges, including the need to create jobs
for a young population, it would need in the future to focus more of its
resources domestically and within the Middle East.
“We will continue to support our neighbors where we are able, including
financially, but now we also face new exigencies of our own,� he said. —
Reuters
+++SOURCE: Jordan Times 24 Jan.’12:�Euorean Union names new Mideast envoy�,
Agence France Presse
SUBJECT: EU names new Mideast envoy
QUOTE: Andreas Reinicke Germany’s Ambassador to Syria will take over . . .on
February 1�
FULL TEXT:BRUSSELS — The European Union named on Monday[23 Jan.] a veteran
German diplomat as the new EU envoy to the Middle East peace process amid
tensions with Israel over Jewish settlements.
Andreas Reinicke, Germany's ambassador to Syria, will take over from Belgian
diplomat Marc Otte on February 1 for a term ending June 30, 2013, with the
goal of helping to revive stalled peace talks.
Reinicke "is an experienced diplomat with huge knowledge of the Middle East.
He will play a key role in our efforts to bring the parties back to the
negotiating table", said EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton.
An EU statement said his task "will be to contribute to achieving the EU's
policy objectives in the region, including a comprehensive peace, a
two-state solution and a settlement of the Israeli-Syrian and
Israeli-Lebanese conflicts"
+++SOURCE: Naharnet (Lebanon) 24 Jan.’12:�U.N.’s Ban Appoints Italy’s Maj.
Gen. Paolo Sera as UNIFIL Commander�
UNIFL changes chiefs in Lebanon
QUOTE: Ban Ki Moon appointed Italian Maj. Gen. Paolo Sera . . . to succeed
Spain’s Maj.Gen. Alberto Asarta (to command UNIFIL in Lebanon)�
FULL TEXT: United Nations chief Ban Ki-moon appointed Italian Maj. Gen.
Paolo Sera as the commander of the United Nations Interim Forces in Lebanon
to succeed Spain’s Maj. Gen. Alberto Asarta.
“Asarta will relinquish his post on 28 January,� spokesperson for the
Secretary-General Martin Nesirky said on Monday[23 Jan.]
The Secretary-General expressed his gratitude to Asarta for his “excellent
service and leadership� after a three-year mandate to command UNIFIL.
UNIFIL was expanded in 2006 following a devastating war between Hizbullah
and Israel. It now numbers some 12,000 troops from 35 countries and about
1,000 national and international civilian staff members.
Serra is currently Chief of Logistics and Land Transformation of the Italian
Army, and held important command appointments up to the level of Commander
of Italy’s “Julia� Alpine Brigade, as well as Commander of the Regional
Command West of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) deployed
in Afghanistan.
In 2009, he was appointed Chief of Staff of the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization (NATO) Rapid Deployable Corps-Italy. From 2004 to 2007, he
served as Army Attaché at the Embassy of Italy in Washington, D.C.
Asarta said during a dinner banquet in his honor at the Spanish Embassy in
Lebanon over the weekend that reaching a cease-fire between Lebanon and
Israel is difficult but not impossible.
Earlier in the month, during his visit to UNIFIL’s headquarters in Naqoura,
Ban stressed the unique risk faced by the mission, saying that while
peacekeeping was always dangerous, it was “especially deadly in Lebanon.�
The mission has lost 293 personnel since it began in 1978 in order to
maintain stability at the border between Lebanon and Israel.
+++SOURCE: Jordan Times 24 Jan.’12:�Hamas will never renounce jihad — top
official�, Agence France Presse
SUBJECT: Top Hamas official: never give up Jihad
QUOTE: “ ‘Jihad is our path, our life, our pride and we will not renounce it
no matter the sacrifices ‘ “
FULL TEXT:GAZA CITY — Senior Hamas official Mahmoud Zahar said on Monday[23
Jan.] that the Palestinian Islamist movement will never give up its armed
struggled against Israel.
The statement comes as Gaza Strip officials openly attacked the movement's
leader-in-exile Khaled Mishaal, who has decided not to run again this summer
for the leadership of Hamas, for prioritising "peaceful resistance".
"We are fighting for our dignity and rights. Jihad is our path, our life,
our pride and we will not renounce it no matter the sacrifices," said Zahar,
quoted on the website of the Izzeddine Al Qassam Brigades, Hamas' armed
wing.
Hamas will "never give up its armed struggle against the Zionist enemy", he
said during a speech in Zeitun, a neighbourhood in east Gaza, in honour of
the "martyrs" of Israel's December 2008 — January 2009 Cast Lead operation
against the enclave.
Damascus-based Mishaal, who survived a 1997 Israeli assassination bid, has
confirmed he wants to quit after eight years in the post, the Islamist
movement that has controlled the Gaza Strip since 2007 said on Saturday[21
Jan.].
"Political bureau chief Khaled Mishaal has notified Hamas' consultative
council that he does not wish to be a candidate for the movement's future
leadership," a statement said.
The political bureau is Hamas' principal decision-making body and its
members are elected by secret ballot by the much larger consultative
council.
The next elections are expected to be held in July or August, Hamas sources
have said.
Among the leading candidates to replace Mishaal are his number two, Musa Abu
Marzouq, who also lives in exile, the leader of the Hamas government in
Gaza, Ismail Haniyeh, and Mahmoud Zahar, another prominent Hamas figure in
Gaza.
+++SOURCE: Syria Report 23 Jan.’12: Syria Increases Gas Price by 60 Percent�
SUBJECT Syria gas price up 60%.
Text:The Syrian Government has announced an increase of 60 percent in the
price of cooking gas as shortages of energy products recently reduced across
the country.
+++SOURCE: Syria Report 23 Jan.’12:�Investors Continue to Flee Stock
Exchange�
SUBJECT: Investors continue to flee Syrian bourse
TEXT The prices of all the stocks that changed hands last week in the
Damascus Securities Exchange declined as investors continue to flee the
Syrian bourse.
+++SOURCE: Naharnet (Lebanon) 223 Jan.’12:�Syria Rejects Arab League Call
for Power Change, Says it Should ‘Stop Arming Terrorists’�, Agence France
Presse
Ø¥
SUBJECT: Syria rejects Arab League plan
QUOTE: “The Arab League on Sunday [22 Jan.] asked the U.N. to support a new
plan . . . .a government of national unity�
FULL TEXT:Syria on Monday[23 Jan.] rejected an Arab League plan for
President Bashar al-Assad to transfer power to his deputy, calling the
initiative a "flagrant interference," state TV quoted an official as saying.
"Syria rejects the decisions taken which are outside an Arab working plan,
and considers them an attack on its national sovereignty and a flagrant
interference in internal affairs," the official was quoted as saying.
The Arab League on Sunday[22 Jan.] asked the U.N. to support a new plan for
resolving the crisis in Syria that sees Assad transferring power to his
deputy and a government of national unity within two months.
Assad should "delegate powers to the vice president to liaise with a
government of national unity," to be formed in two months, according to a
statement read by Qatari premier Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim Al-Thani after Arab
foreign ministers met in Cairo to determine the fate of their Syrian
observer mission.
The Syrian official reacting to the Arab League's call said the regional
body should instead "assume its responsibilities for stopping the financing
and arming of terrorists," the television channel reported.
The source added that the Arab League initiative ran counter to the
interests of the Syrian people and would not prevent the country from
"advancing its political reforms and bringing security and stability to its
people who have shown, during this crisis, their support for national unity
as they have rallied around President Assad."
Deployed since December 26 to oversee an Arab League peace plan, the Syrian
observer mission has been widely criticized for its failure to stem the
government's bloody crackdown on democracy protesters.
Earlier, Saudi Arabia's foreign minister said Riyadh had pulled its
observers from the mission because the Syrian government had "not respected
any of the clauses" in the Arab plan aimed at ending the crisis.
The Arab League agreed, however, to extend the mission and boost the number
of observers, according to the final statement.
"We will inform the United Nations of all the resolutions of the Arab
League... for its approval," Sheikh Hamad said.
The League's secretary general Nabil al-Arabi, who attended Sunday[22 Jan.]
evening's news conference in Cairo, explained that the request to support
the United Nations was designed to "give more weight" to the Arab
initiative.
The Arab foreign ministers urged "the Syrian government and all the
opposition factions to engage in a serious dialogue under the auspices of
the Arab League, within a period of not more than two weeks, to be able to
achieve the formation of a unity government bringing together those in power
and the opposition."
The new government's mission would be to implement the Arab League plan to
end the crisis, and to prepare free and fair legislative and presidential
elections under both Arab and international supervision.
It would also prepare the election of a constituent assembly within three
months and a new constitution which would be put to a referendum.
The ministers tasked the bloc's secretary general with nominating a "special
envoy" to Syria in charge of following developments in the country.
After reading out the statement, the Qatari premier said the new plan
envisaged the "peaceful departure of the Syrian regime," adding that the
plan "resembles the one on Yemen," which resulted in President Ali Abdullah
Saleh agreeing to step down.
"If this initiative is not put in place (by Damascus), we will go to the
Security Council, where the decisions will be taken," Sheikh Hamad warned.
The Syrian National Council, the country's largest opposition group, has
been lobbying in Cairo for U.N. intervention, and SNC chief Burhan Ghaliun
welcomed the League's statement of its intention to seek U.N. support.
But he insisted that "any transition in Syria should be preceded with the
announcement of Assad's departure."
Earlier, the SNC called for the Syria file to be transferred to the U.N.
Security Council for referral to the International Criminal Court, so that
all Syrian officials implicated in "crimes against humanity" could be
prosecuted under international law.
International pressure has been steadily growing on Assad's regime, as more
than 5,400 people have been killed since anti-government protests broke out
last March, according to U.N. figures.
But a tough Security Council resolution on Syria has been blocked by
veto-wielding permanent members China and Russia, with Moscow insisting the
opposition is as much to blame for the violence as the regime.
A report delivered earlier on Sunday[22 by the chief of the Arab League's
monitoring mission, General Mohammed Ahmed Mustafa al-Dabi of Sudan, also
blamed both sides for the bloodshed, according to an Arab diplomatic source.
The Arab League deployed observers in Syria on December 26, and there are
presently about 165 monitors on the ground.
The Local Coordination Committees, which organizes anti-regime protests,
said in a statement on Sunday[22 Jan.] that 976 people have been killed in a
bloody crackdown on dissent since the observer mission began.
Qatar had proposed that Arab troops be deployed in Syria, but Damascus
rejected that idea outright.
+++SOURCE:Naharnet (Lebanon) 23 Jan.’12:�EU Agrees to Slap Oil Embargo on
Iran�, Agence France Presse
SUBJECT: European Union nations say no Iran oil imports
QUOTE: Iran sells around 20 percent of its crude to EU nations�
FULL TEXT:European Union nations agreed Monday[23 Jan.] to slap an oil
embargo against Iran's oil exports in a bid to halt funding of the country's
disputed nuclear program, EU diplomats said.
"There is a political agreement on an oil embargo," said a diplomat who
spoke on condition of anonymity after early morning talks between
ambassadors of the 27 EU nations held before the opening of a foreign
ministers' meeting.
The deal is to be formally approved by the EU ministers during their one-day
talks.
The compromise agreement, which follows weeks of difficult talks, provides
for an immediate ban on importing Iranian crude and a gradual phase-out of
existing contracts between now and July 1.
Greece's dependence on Iranian oil had been holding up an accord on the
timing and conditions of the embargo as the financially strapped nation
relies on Iran for more than a third of its imports and had struck
preferential financial terms with Tehran.
Greece had initially asked for a transition period of up to a year, or even
more, and intensive talks have been going on for weeks to find alternative
sources and resolve the issue.
Iran sells around 20 percent of its crude to EU nations, with Greece, Spain
and Italy the top buyers.
+++SOURCE: Jordan Times 23 Jan.’12:�Egypt Islamists on eve of power ease
talk of Islam�, The Associated Press
SUBJECT: Muslim Brotherhood to focus on fixing economy
QUOTES:�The Brotherhood’s caution in its Islamic rhetoric and parliament
agenda reflects its worries of a backlash against it�; “the Military holds
ultimate power for at least six more months
FULL TEXT:CAIRO — After decades of dreaming of power, Egypt's Muslim
Brotherhood finally comes face to face with the question of how to use it,
as a new parliament that it dominates opens Monday[223 Jan.].
The fundamentalist group has eased off talk of Islamic-style legislation,
saying it will focus on fixing Egypt's ailing economy, and it has even
backed off introducing further explicit Islamic references in the new
constitution it will have a major hand in writing. But it has other tools to
push Egypt towards greater religious conservativism.
The Brotherhood's caution in its Islamic rhetoric and parliament agenda
reflect its worries of a backlash against it at a time when Egypt's politics
are still in major flux. Egyptians are eager to see quick improvements in an
economy that has been battered by turmoil and mismanagement since the fall
of Hosni Mubarak nearly a year ago.
They also want signs of long-term change in a system where corruption was
rife, nearly half the population fell to the edge of poverty or below, young
people searched in vain for jobs and for housing and neighbourhoods were
left to fall into dilapidation as Mubarak's regime built clean new suburbs
for the few wealthy.
Moreover, how much authority the Brotherhood will have to bring changes
remains unsettled. The military, which took over when Mubarak was ousted,
holds ultimate power for at least six more months. The Brotherhood and
ruling generals are expected to jostle and cajole each other over dividing
power, and the Brotherhood is wary of moves that could cause a clash.
"We can't talk about implementing Islamic Sharia law when the country is
experiencing such devastating economic problems," said Mohammed Gouda, a
Brotherhood policymaker and member of the party's economic committee.
The Brotherhood feels little need to push through legislation enforcing an
Islamic vision, he and other members say, especially since Egyptian society
is already deeply religious and conservative. More effective, they say, is
influencing the culture. Brotherhood members show a confidence that they can
show a "correct" example of Islam that will bring the public into their way
of life.
Indeed, Gouda said that the Egyptian public is "already convinced" and
doesn't need much persuasion.
He pointed to the dramatic spread of the Muslim headscarf among women in
past decades. In the past, few women wore it, but now it is nearly universal
among Muslim women in Egypt as society has grown more conservative. He and
others shrug off the need for laws on traditionally "Islamic" issues such as
banning alcohol and encouraging or even requiring gender segregation and
Islamic dress.
Critics in Egypt worry that the Brotherhood is only biding its time to bring
a more Islamic agenda, and their greatest fear is of a long-term
understanding between the Brotherhood and military to run the country, even
after the generals step aside for a civilian president, due to take place by
late June.
The New York-based Human Rights Watch said in a report Sunday[22 Jan.] that
the West must recognise that Islamists are "the majority preference" in
Egypt and other Arab countries and will naturally grow stronger in a
democratic system.
But it said pressure must be maintained to ensure respect for human rights.
The Brotherhood has been "saying the right things" but "we have to see how
they govern and how they deal with women, religious minorities. These are
the big questions," said HRW's Executive Director Kenneth Roth.
By any measure, it will be an unprecedented moment on Monday[23 Jan/ with
the convening of the first parliament since last year's dramatic wave of
protests led to the February 11 fall of Mubarak after nearly 30 years of
authoritarian rule. The protests were led by leftist and secular youth, but
the free elections that resulted — Egypt's first in living memory — were a
prize for Islamists, particularly the Brotherhood, which was banned under
Mubarak.
In the parliament chamber Monday[23 Jan.], 47 per cent of the 498 lawmakers
will belong to the Brotherhood, including the parliament speaker. Another
quarter will be salafists, a more radical Islamic group who only a year ago
shunned democracy as a violation of God's law but who now see government as
the way to bring it about.
Parliament's biggest upcoming task is the writing of the new constitution.
It is to form a 100-member assembly to draft the document, though the
military is pressing for a say as well, and the Brotherhood is under
pressure to ensure secular and liberal voices have an equal say with
Islamists.
The Brotherhood says it does not intend to enshrine further Islamic
structures into the new charter, beyond its current Article 2, which says
principles of Islamic law are "the main basis" for legislation in Egypt.
The phrasing is broad enough to mean almost whatever those in power want it
to mean. Mubarak's nominally secular regime did little to legislate Shariah
beyond family laws, but future decision makers could cite the clause to
insist on expanding Shariah's scope.
Instead, the Brotherhood's priority in the constitution is, again, political
more than religious. It wants to restructure Egypt's system where the
president had overwhelming power — the legal grounding for Mubarak's
authoritarian rule.
For months, the Brotherhood advocated a strictly parliamentary system. That
raised criticism that it seeks to concentrate power in a body that it is
likely to dominate for the foreseeable future, so it has shifted to
advocating a mixed system sharing powers between president and parliament.
In parliament itself, the focus will be on the economy, said Gouda.
The Brotherhood's economic platform, as much as it is spelled out, is
strongly liberal capitalist, reflecting the business and professional
backgrounds of many of its members, so much so that it has come under
criticism from the left for neglecting "social justice".
Gouda said the group's priority is stability to encourage investment. It
wants to tackle corruption by activating a consumer protection law that was
introduced under Mubarak but sat idle, and by making regulatory bodies
independent so they can do their work without corruption.
"We will set up a system to encourage people to report those who offer
bribes, and actually make sure laws that protect consumers be applied," he
said.
For spreading its conservative ideology through the culture, the Brotherhood
already boasts a nationwide system of charities and social work. If it gains
positions in government as well as parliament, it could have further tools,
including greater influence over the powerful state television and other
media — which it has always been shut out of. Some Brotherhood figures have
spoken of the education ministry as a key sector.
The Brotherhood, however, may face a challenge to this gradualist approach
from the right.
The salafists who form the second largest bloc in parliament espouse a far
more rigid, literalist and uncompromising stance on Shariah. The two blocs
were often rivals in the election campaign over the past months, and
pressing for more overtly Islamic laws could help the Salafi parties with
their base.
"What we may see is that each side will try to out-Muslim the other," said
Mohammed Abbas, a young former Brotherhood member who left the group after
being frustrated with the group for not giving youth a stronger voice.
Nathan J. Brown, a professor at George Washington University and who studies
Middle Eastern Islamist parties said the Salafis "are one of the biggest
issues on their mind — almost as big as the military".
The Brothers' worry is that they would be pushed into a more radical stance.
They remember the experiences of Islamic movements in Algeria and Palestine,
where Islamic groups that were too aggressive brought a backlash. They also
don't want to lose their focus on showing they can bring good governance.
"They would never say they are de-emphasising religion, and I think they are
being sincere," Brown said. "For them good governance providing for the
needs of people,
+++SOURCE: Jordan Times 22 Jan.’12:�Hesitant Arab Syria response leaving
Jordan with ‘few good options’ “by Taylor Luck
SUBJECT: Arab League response Syria/ Impact on Jordan
QUOTE: Jordan is expected to reaffirm its position on maintaining an ‘Arab
solution’ to the Syrian conflict�
FULL TEXT:AMMAN — As Arab foreign ministers gather in Cairo today to reasses
the Arab League’s response to the ongoing crisis in Syria, the debate will
likely present several diplomatic challenges for Jordan, observers say.
With its own position tied to Arab consensus, observers say decision makers
in Amman are left with few “good options� amidst warning signs that the
10-month-old crisis in its northern neighbour may be heading towards civil
strife.
A series of competing proposals and suggestions have been made, ranging from
withdrawing the Arab League’s one-month-old observer mission to deploying
Arab troops onto Syrian soil.
Amidst the competing calls, one aspect is clear, according to analysts: The
ongoing failure of the Arab League initiative to halt a military crackdown
that has claimed the lives of over 5,000 civilians has placed Jordan in a
“difficult spot�.
“It is difficult to have killings on your doorstep but at the same time
geopolitical and economic realities have left Jordan with few attractive
options,� said Marwan Muasher, former minister of foreign affairs and
currently vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment.
A major dispute arises over the role of observers, with competing views on
whether to increase the number of observers or to end the mission
altogether.
According to diplomatic sources, there are no plans to withdraw Jordan’s
team of 12 observers — the largest single contingent in the observer
mission — with Amman likely to support efforts to extend the observer
mission as the “best worst case scenario�.
“Jordan will continue to support efforts to give the Arab League every
opportunity to carry out the Arab initiative to end the crisis,� said Samih
Maaytah, political observer and head of Al Arab Al Yawm daily’s editorial
board.
In today’s meetings, Jordan is expected to reaffirm its position on
maintaining an “Arab solution� to the Syrian conflict, a position that
analysts say Amman will find increasingly difficult to maintain following
the struggles of an observer mission some claim was “doomed from the start�.
“The observers had no training and a limited mandate, and issued statements
that were heavily criticised. This experience has shattered public faith in
the Arab League’s ability to bring a solution to the Syrian crisis,� said
Nasooh Majali, political observer and former minister of information.
“Right now the Arab League’s response is aiding the Syrian regime and not
the people, and this poses a real challenge to Jordan,� he added.
Despite the faltering monitoring mission, efforts to escalate the Arab
response, such as Qatari Emir Hamad Al Thani’s suggestion to dispatch Arab
troops to bring an end to the conflict, are unlikely to draw any support
from Jordan.
“Sending Arab troops to an Arab state is a very difficult decision to make.
We have only seen it a couple of times in history,� noted Muasher.
“It is difficult to see Jordan supporting such a position at this time.�
Complicating Jordan’s position regarding the Arab consensus on Syria is the
role of the Syrian opposition, with the Free Syrian Army recently announcing
Syrian forces’ withdrawal from the town of Zabadani — marking the small town
on the Lebanese border as the first region in Syria to come under the
control of rebel forces.
Unlike the Libyan experience, which saw Arab governments support armed
opposition groups in the early days of their popular revolt, observers say
Jordan will likely oppose any diplomatic efforts supporting the
transformation of a peaceful revolution in Syria into an armed revolt.
“We don’t want to see civil strife in the Arab world, particularly at Jordan’s
doorstep and Jordan will take measures to prevent this,� said Muasher.
Observers’ hesitance stemming from concerns that any support for the band of
Syrian army defectors may lead to a protracted conflict with unforeseen
consequences.
“Jordan supports the Syrian people’s efforts to secure their basic rights,
but after the experience in Iraq, decision makers will be very cautious of
any proposal to arm rebels,� Maaytah said.
International option
According to observers, the greatest dilemma facing Jordan is the potential
“internationalisation� of the response to the Syrian crisis.
Sunday’s[22 Jan.] gathering of foreign ministers comes amidst renewed calls
by the Syrian opposition for international intervention — with the Syrian
National Council meeting with Arab League Secretary General Nabil Al Arabi
on Saturday[21 Jan.] to urge the body to transfer the file to the UN
Security Council.
His Majesty King Abdullah acknowledged in an interview with The Washington
Post that change will not occur without “greater involvement� of the
international community.
From potential increase in refugees to impacts on the Kingdom’s economy,
observers say decision makers are wary of the “dramatic impact� any
international intervention in Syria will have on the Kingdom.
Officials insist that Jordan would throw its support behind international
intervention, only if decided by the Arab League.
“Jordan’s position is the consensus of the Arab League, and if there is a
decision to transfer the Syrian file to the UN Security Council, Jordan will
support it,� said Ministry of Foreign Affairs Spokesman Mohammed Al Kayed.
Rather than participate in any international response, a diplomatic source
said Jordan will likely take a “lead from behind� approach in any
international involvement, offering logistical support for any international
efforts to establish a protective zone or enforce a no-fly zone over Syria.
“There are concerns that any direct international intervention in Syria will
complicate Jordan’s ties with other states in the region,� said the source.
As the Arab League struggle to craft a united response and the violence in
Syria continues, analysts say prospects are dimming for Amman’s most desired
outcome in the protracted crisis.
“Jordan will continue to hold out for a swift end to the violence and a
peaceful transition of power and reconciliation,� Muasher said. “This is the
true solution
============
Sue Lerner - Associate, IMRA
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