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Saturday, February 11, 2012
Amir Rapaport - Israel Defense: war might erupt before October

The exercise was delayed due to a desire to slightly ease the tension
against Iran. It is now planned for October. However, it’s not unreasonable
to consider that a war might erupt before then.

Israel and the US Have an Understanding on the Iranian Issue
The repeated declarations are largely a form of psychological warfare; Gal
Hirsch returns to the IDF’s top echelons; and the largest tender in IDF
history was awarded for the construction of a training base city in the
Negev

Amir Rapaport 10/2/2012
http://www.israeldefense.com/?CategoryID=483&ArticleID=917

All the anonymous statements coming from Israeli and US “senior officials”
regarding the question of whether or not Israel will attack Iran (against
the US’s advice) should be treated with a measure of suspicion.

It is likely that there is a significant amount of psychological warfare
involved in these reports. The goal is clear enough: to increase pressure on
Iran, which already exists as a result of more economic sanctions,
mysterious explosions, and the assassinations of senior nuclear scientists.

The “senior official” understandings likely emerged from two starting
points, which are seemingly contradictory. The first is that Israel cannot
commit to the US in any way, especially that the US be notified more than
several hours in advance of an air strike. The second is that there is truth
to the words recently spoken by US President Barack Obama, claiming that the
defense relationship between Israel and the US has never been closer. The
issue of the Iranian nuclear program is one of the most central issues
discussed in the joint strategic dialogue between Jerusalem and Washington,
a dialogue that is the most closely coordinated one ever.

The discussions over this issue began back in the early 1990s, and are now
expressed in ongoing intelligence updates regarding the various aspects of
the Iranian nuclear program. These updates are conducted by senior officials
in the branches of the Israeli defense establishment – the Directorate of
Military Intelligence and the Mossad, and the Joint Political-Military Group
(JPMG). This group, which gathers once every quarter, is comprised of
diplomats, military and intelligence personnel, and persons who deal with
foreign policy. Essentially, it is a think-tank that handles the various
aspects of the Iranian project, with the goal of deepening the level of
intelligence cooperation in order to determine a basis for joint policy.

Above all else, the discussions concerning the Iranian issue are being
carried out continuously in the political stratum. The bottom line is
apparent: even if Israel does not commit to announcing an attack in advance,
it won’t act as if the US isn’t in the neighborhood (who is increasing their
presence in the Persian Gulf region).

By the way, the huge exercise that was planned for this spring, with the
participation of US and Israeli forces, was meant to be another expression
of the close cooperation between the countries. The exercise was delayed due
to a desire to slightly ease the tension against Iran. It is now planned for
October. However, it’s not unreasonable to consider that a war might erupt
before then.

Eyes to the north

While global attention is focused on the issue of whether or not Israel will
attack Iran, the IDF’s eyes are also observing the north – and are closely
monitoring the bloodbath in Syria.

Gantz’s words from a few weeks ago, that the IDF is preparing to receive
Alawite (the minority in Syria, among which is President Bashar Assad)
refugees, reflects one of several possible scenarios. The questions remains,
what will happen the day the Assad regime collapses?

A much more worrisome possibility is that the collapse of the Syrian regime
will be accompanied by missile fire at Israel, in the sense of “I’m going
down and taking you with me.” Another possibility, equally grave, is the
transfer of large amounts of qualitative weapons from the Syrian army
warehouses to Hezbollah in Lebanon. If Syria were to transfer very advanced
antiaircraft systems to Lebanon, it’s quite possible that Israel would
choose to operate in the form of a preemptive strike in this scenario as
well – before the S125 systems would enter operational use.

Replacements during a sensitive period

Given the tension surrounding Iran and the north, this is not an ideal time
to replace prominent IDF positions, as is expected to take place soon in the
defense establishment. (The next IAF commander, Major General Amir Eshel, is
expected to enter office in April.)

Another problematic element is the fact that the military secretaries of
both the prime minister and the minister of defense are expected to be new
(both are highly sensitive positions, and their entry is always accompanied
by a measure of dissonance – there is no position in the IDF that prepares
senior officers on how to conduct themselves in the tumultuous junction
between the political and military sectors).

Brigadier General Itzik Turgeman, the new military secretary to the minister
of defense, already took office and is now learning how to handle his
position. Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu will need to select a new
military secretary soon, as the current one, Major General Yochanan Locker,
announced he would conclude his position and retire should he not be
nominated the next Air Force Commander - which, as is known, he wasn't.

Incidentally, the new Depth Command is increasing its activity in light of
the preparations for a possible war on all fronts. The person responsible
for the command, Major General Shai Avital, who returned from retirement,
has already assembled a working team. Soon, they are expected to receive a
surprising reinforcement: Brigadier General (Res.) Gal Hirsch, one of the
more prominent figures from the Second Lebanon War.

Hirsch served as the commander of the Galilee Formation (the 91st Division)
that was responsible for the Lebanese border. Hirsch became one of the
symbols of the war due to his criticism, while on the other hand, the former
Chief of Staff, Lieutenant General Dan Halutz, said (rightfully) that he was
wronged. Hirsch, who was not among the bad commanders of the war (rather the
opposite), resigned from the IDF after the war, and made money as a senior
partner at the Israeli company Defensive Shield. The position which is
currently intended for him may return him to the top military echelon, for
the first time since the war.

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