About Us

IMRA
IMRA
IMRA

 

Subscribe

Search


...................................................................................................................................................


Tuesday, November 13, 2012
Amir Rapaport: Gaza: Rapid Deterioration

Rapid Deterioration
Neither Barak nor the IDF are the ones determining the height of the flames
in the recent period. Hamas and the “rogue” organizations in Gaza are the
ones playing with fire
Amir Rapaport 13/11/2012
http://www.israeldefense.com/?CategoryID=483&ArticleID=1744

There is a considerable difference between the situation in Israel’s
southern region and the IDF’s fire towards Syrian territory: the situation
with the Gaza Strip is much more volatile than at the northern border. In
fact, the IDF could have already been in the depth of the Gaza Strip this
very week.

If the terror tunnel that detonated on Thursday would have caused many
casualties, and even allowed for the abduction of a soldier; if the fire of
the missile towards the IDF jeep on Saturday had cost lives and not ended
with “only” four men wounded; or if just one of the dozens of rockets fired
towards the south in the past few days had cost lives from among the
residents, the road to some sort of operation would have been very short.

In the era prior to elections, the political echelon’s fuse is consumed by
the fire at the speed of fireworks, especially when the minister of defense
is gathering every vote in an effort to pass the electoral threshold. There
has been talk at Ehud Barak’s bureau in the past few days of how an
operation in the Gaza Strip will provide him with some votes just as
operation Cast Lead raised his standings in polls on the eve of the 2009
elections. No one is saying of course that the minister of defense's opinion
is motivated by polls, during the escalation of the past few days. However,
Barak put on an open leather jacket during a tailored event at the Israeli
Trade Fairs & Convention Center and spoke to voters: we are strong, we will
strike those who fire at us in the south and the north, and so on.

The truth is that neither Barak nor the IDF are the ones determining the
height of the flames in the recent period. Hamas and the terror
organizations considered to be "rogue" organizations in the Gaza Strip are
the ones playing with fire. From the IDF's perspective, "rogue"
organizations are all of the entities in the Gaza Strip, which operate
according to agendas of their own, which don't always correspond to the
wishes of the Hamas leadership. The "rogue" organizations were once mostly
the Resistance Committees in the southern part of the Strip. Today, the
Strip is filled wit” organizations that get their ideology (and occasionally
even instructions) from Global Jihad entities.

In contrast, the basic interest of the Hamas organization these days is to
maintain the calm, primarily in order to allow the Muslim Brotherhood to
complete its control over Egypt without headaches. However, the organization
faces heavy pressure to allow terror attacks to be carried out against IDF
forces stationed along the border. This pressure has increased in light of
what is perceived in Gaza as significant restrictions on the IDF’s use of
force on the eve of elections. In light of the pressure imposed on it, the
IDF recently assessed that Hamas has attempted to channel the energies of
the "rogue" organizations into a war of attrition along the border
surrounding the Gaza Strip, to determine the rules of the game against the
IDF in this sector.

This is the background for the disturbing chain of attacks that began
recently. The rainy weather of the past few days represented an opportunity,
from the perspective of the Gaza organizations, for a particularly violent
row round of blows against the IDF, including fire towards the south, with
the knowledge that the IDF’s aircraft – which displayed tremendous skill at
hunting down launchers – would be limited in such days. Barak sent out
combatant messages not just for the purposes of the Atzmaut party, but first
and foremost in order to signal to Hamas that from Israel’s perspective, it
is responsible for the situation, and it must immediately turn off the
flames. The Prime Minister’s bureau knew to tell of preparing the global
public opinion for an IDF operation, and in the IDF,–the chief of staff held
debriefings towards a potential land operation. Nevertheless, there is still
a reasonable chance that once the weather has cleared, this round of
violence will die out as well - at least for a few days.

Search For An Article
....................................................................................................

Contact Us

POB 982 Kfar Sava
Tel 972-9-7604719
Fax 972-3-7255730
email:imra@netvision.net.il IMRA is now also on Twitter
http://twitter.com/IMRA_UPDATES

image004.jpg (8687 bytes)