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Monday, November 19, 2012
Observation: Fundamental flaw by Minister Yaalon on Quiet for Quiet

Observation: Fundamental flaw by Minister Yaalon on Quiet for Quiet
Dr. Aaron Lerner Date: 19 November 2012

Vice Prime Minister and Minister of Strategic Affairs Moshe "Bogie" Ya'alon
is a vocal advocate for the "quiet for quiet" policy.

In media appearances, the former Chief of Staff of the Israel Defense Forces
rarely, if ever, raises the issue of preventing the Gazans from rearming.

Minister Ya'alon implies that, for all intents and purposes, it does not
really matter what weapons that Gazans possess as long as they are deterred
from using them. He points to the situation in Lebanon, where Hizbullah is
armed to the teeth but hasn't attacked, to prove his point.

I have all the respect and honor in the world for all that Moshe Ya'alon has
contributed to Israel's defense. But I find his position and argument
nothing less than stunning.

His narrative regarding why Hizbullah hasn't attacked may provide comfort
for Israeli ears, but there are equally valid – if not more valid –
explanations for the current quiet.

Hizbullah and their Iranian masters/sponsors are not a loosely organized
band of crazed Moslem outlaws. They have a chain of command,
infrastructure, and most important of all – a planning horizon that
expresses considerably more patience than the typical Israeli planning
horizon measured at best in months.

Yes, Hizbullah and Iran are aware of the consequences of launching an
attack against Israel and this deters them from simply opening fire fro
Lebanon.

But that in no way means that they will not end the period of quiet at a
time of their choosing.

And when that day comes, the quality and quantity of weapons they have
deployed in Lebanon will most certainly be extremely significant.

It will be significant on two counts:

#1 The greater their ability, the greater the costs to Israel when the
battle comes.

#2. The greater their ability, the greater the odds that when the day comes
to decide to attack, that they will indeed attack as the quality and
quantity of weapons they will have deployed in Lebanon at that time will
have a profound impact on their “cost-benefit”calculation.

Turning to the situation in the Gaza Strip, we have seen how the enemy in
Gaza dramatically upgraded their weapons systems and raced up the learning
curve since Operation Cast Lead. The range, accuracy and payloads today are
well beyond anything they had a few year ago. Their methods of operation
for launching are also considerably more sophisticated.

That’s not to say that the IDF hasn’t also learned and advanced.

Just that thanks to "quiet for quiet" the Gazans advanced between Cast Lead
and Pillar of Defense.

And if we only insist on "quiet for quiet", we could very well face a
nightmare a few years after Pillar of Defense.

Put simply: it is time to apply a "Jewish" planning horizon – that looks
many years to the future rather than an "Israeli" planning horizon.

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(Mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
Website: http://www.imra.org.il

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