Observation: Win-win for Israeli leadership and Hamas?

Dr. Aaron Lerner Date: 24 November 2012

It is possible that Israel’s current leadership and Hamas may be in a
cooperative win-win situation for the coming period.

Hamas needs time to achieve a number of goals:

#1. Renew and upgrade the missiles and other weapons it has so that in the
next round they will be both more deadly and less subject to detection and
destruction by Israel.

#2. Build on the results of the last round with Israel to extend the
influence of Hamas in the West Bank.

There may be other benefits to Hamas in postponing the next round. Right
now they are at odds with Iran over their decision not to support Assad. If
the situation in Syria reaches a conclusion – in particular should Assad
fall – Iran will be very interested in showing that they still are teamed up
with leading “players” and not just secondary elements (eg. Islamic Jihad).

The Israeli leadership wants essentially only to show “quiet”.

While there may be Israeli talk about weapons smuggling – even possibly some
headlines about a few weapons being intercepted by Egypt - the “quiet for
quiet” Israeli demand relates only to the use of weapons – not their
deployment.

This goes beyond weapons and military infrastructure in the Gaza Strip.

It may also apply to security on the border.

Hamas, for example, may very well take measures to prevent rioting on the
border fence in order to facilitate conditions allowing Gazan farmers to
work all the way up to the fence. The ability to prepare for the next round
of war against Israel literally up to the fence without interference could
be a deadly benefit for Hamas in the next round. But until the shooting
start, the quiet fence will be cited by the Israeli leadership as a success.

To be clear – it is not that the Israeli leadership is knowingly
jeopardizing the Jewish State’s security. They are confident that Israeli
intelligence will effectively monitor all developments and that the IDF will
be prepared to successfully address whatever challenges arise.

Or as the saying goes, “Yihyeh B’seder” (it will be ok).

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(Mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
Website: http://www.imra.org.il