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Monday, December 3, 2012
Dr. Mina Zemach explains weighting scheme used for Saban Center Poll of Israelis

IMRA contacted Dr. Mina Zemach of Dahaf, the group that prepared the poll,
to explain the notation to the poll: "The Jewish subsample was weighted to
match political participation in the 2009 Israeli Knesset election."

The following is IMRA's English translation of her reply:

Dear Aaron,

I did not talk with [Prof.] Shibley after the conference but I hope that the
findings generated interest and the best evidence of this is the question
you have addressed to me.

All studies in Israel show that the variable that best explains the
differences in responses to questions of a political, social and economic
nature is the voting patterns of the respondents and therefore it is
important that the sample represents the population in accordance with their
voting pattern. The objective data that we have in this matter are voting
patterns in the last Knesset elections Ė in this instance the 2009
elections.

Since four years have passed, the 2009 voting profile of the people who have
the right to vote today differs from the profile of those with the right to
vote on 2009. We therefore make the following adjustments:

- Add in the age group that did not participate in the vote in the last
election. (This group is a little over 2% each year, now four years after
the election in 2009, it is estimated at - 8.5%).

- On the other hand we know that there were voters who passed away over the
four years and there is a connection between the party voted for and
mortality rates, so we also adjust for this.

The result is the appropriate weights.

In summary, we do weighting for the following groups:

- people who had the right to vote in elections in 2009 but refrained from
voting (Weight significantly less than what one would derive from the
elections rolls because the election rolls include people who live overseas
but retain their citizenship and our data refer only to those who were
actually available to vote in Israel).

- The second group - people who for the first-time have the right to vote.

- The third group - people who voted for the various parties in 2009 with
appropriate adjustments resulting from the entry of new voters and deaths of
people who participated in the 2009 elections.

Since the voting pattern of the Arabs is very different from that of the
Jews, you cannot weigh the two groups together.

Best regards,
Mina Zemach

[In a follow up telephone conversation, Dr. Zemach noted that they did not
experience any problem in getting accurate information from respondents as
to what party they voted for in 2009 Ė with the exception of Shas voters.
The Shas voters are underrepresented in polling Ė and it is believed that
some people who voted for Shas in 2009 are now responding that they voted
for the Likud. To be clear Ė the weighing scheme does not force back the
current results to the 2009 political balance in the country.

[IMRA:The poll proposes a nuclear free zone based on effective international
inspection. This is a typical "if pigs could fly questions. What is the
policy making value of "if pigs could fly" question? Here is the problem:
The people promoting the policy (nuclear free zone) may not really care if
pigs can or cannot fly. In fact, should such a deal go through they could
claim that the pig is indeed flying (namely that the nuclear inspections are
iron clad absolutely foolproof) even though it isn't and press Israel to
give up its nuclear weapons. ]

Israeli Public Opinion after the November 2012 Gaza War
November 30, 2012
http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/presentations/2012/11/30%20israel%20public%20opinion%20telhami/30%20israel%20poll%20full%20report.pdf

PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATORS: SHIBLEY TELHAMI, STEVEN KULL
STAFF: CLAY RAMSAY, EVAN LEWIS
Acknowledgements
Abe Medoff managed the production of the report, with contributions from
Sally Kaplan and Kyle Gibson. This project was funded by the Anwar Sadat
Chair and the Circle Foundation.
METHODOLOGY
The poll was conducted on November 21 and November 24-25, 2012, through
telephone interviews with a sample of 600 adult Israelis (510 Israeli Jews
and 90 Israeli Arabs). The margin of error for the full sample is +/-4.0%.
The survey was fielded by the Dahaf Institute in Israel. Of the 510
interviews with Israeli Jews, 156 were obtained on November 21 in the hours
before the ceasefire took effect at 9 pm that evening. The Jewish subsample
was weighted to match political participation in the 2009 Israeli Knesset
election.

The Following are the findings from a nationally representative poll of 600
Israelis conducted on November 21, 25, and 26, 2012:

1 Regarding what is happening these days, do you think Israel is better or
worse off than before the escalation in the Gaza strip front?
Better
.............................................................................................
36%
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................38

Worse
.............................................................................................21
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................16

The same
........................................................................................38
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................42

Donít know/Refused
........................................................................5

2 Who, in your opinion, won the combat in the Gaza strip?

Israel..............................................................................................
40%
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................44

Hamas
............................................................................................11
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................10

Neither............................................................................................45
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................44

Donít know/Refused
........................................................................5

3 Do you believe that the fighting between Israel and Palestinian groups in
Gaza:

Will end for good only when there is a political final status
agreement with the
Palestinians.................................................... 29%
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................27

Will end only through a major Israeli military campaign
in Gaza.
..........................................................................................15
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................15

Will end only if Israel reoccupies Gaza.
........................................12
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................13

It will not end.
................................................................................40
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................42

Donít know/Refused
........................................................................4

4. How would you describe your views of President Barack Obama of the
United
States?

Very positive
.................................................................................
16%
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................13
Somewhat positive
.........................................................................44
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................49
Somewhat negative
........................................................................20
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................21
Very negative
.................................................................................12
Israeli Jews
...........................................................................9
Donít know/Refused
........................................................................8

5. Which world leader (outside your own country) do you admire most? [Open-
ended]
Angela Merkel
..............................................................................
14%
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................14
Barack
Obama................................................................................13
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................15
Bill
Clinton.......................................................................................5
Israeli Jews
...........................................................................6
Vladimir
Putin..................................................................................3
Israeli Jews
...........................................................................2
Stephen
Harper.................................................................................3
Israeli Jews
...........................................................................3
Hassan
Nasrallah..............................................................................1
Israeli Jews
...........................................................................0
Mohamed Morsi
...............................................................................1
Israeli Jews
...........................................................................0
No one
............................................................................................25
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................23
Other
..............................................................................................35
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................37
Donít know/Refused
......................................................................21

6 Support for Israelís security needs is:
Increased
.......................................................................................
40%
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................34

Decreased
.......................................................................................21
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................23

Stayed about the
same....................................................................36
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................39

Donít know/Refused
........................................................................4

7. STATEMENT: Thinking about the American public is it your impression that
its support for the following has increased, decreased, or stayed about the
same over the last few years.

Support for Israeli government policies:

Increased
.......................................................................................
30%
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................23

Decreased
.......................................................................................27
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................29

Stayed about the
same....................................................................40
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................44
Israeli Arabs
.......................................................................19

Donít know/Refused
........................................................................4

8. In its second term, do you expect the Obama administrationís relations
with Israel to:
[Alternate Reverse Order the response options]
Get
Warmer...................................................................................
26%
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................24

Stay about the same
.......................................................................55
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................59

Get Cooler
......................................................................................14
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................13

Depends on who is elected in
Israel.................................................3
Israeli Jews
...........................................................................1

Donít know/Refused
........................................................................2

9. In President Obamaís second term, how do you think the personal
relationship between Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Obama will
affect American support for Israel? Do you think it will:

Increase American support
........................................................... 23%
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................21

Will not make much
difference......................................................60
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................62

Diminish American support
...........................................................11
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................10

Donít know/Refused
........................................................................6

10. Is it your impression that during the American Presidential elections,
Prime Minister Netanyahu:
Supported the Republican candidate Mitt Romney ...................... 61%
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................64

Supported the Democratic candidate, President Obama ................12
Israeli Jews
...........................................................................9

Stayed
neutral.................................................................................16
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................18

Donít know/Refused
......................................................................10

11. How likely do you think it is that Iran will eventually develop nuclear
weapons?
Very likely
....................................................................................
51%
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................54

Somewhat
likely.............................................................................36
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................38

Not very likely
.................................................................................7
Israeli Jews
...........................................................................5

Not at all
likely.................................................................................3
Israeli Jews
...........................................................................1

Donít know/Refused
........................................................................4

12. There is talk of a possible Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.
Do you:

Support such an attack
.................................................................. 38%
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................41

Oppose such an
attack....................................................................50
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................46

Donít know/Refused
......................................................................13

13. In regard to a possible Israeli military strike against Iranís
nuclear facilities, what do you think Israel should do:

Strike Iranís nuclear facilities, even without the
support of the U.S.
...................................................................... 20%
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................18

Strike Iranís nuclear facilities, but only if Israel
gains American support
.................................................................43
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................46

Do not strike Iranís nuclear facilities.
............................................33
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................32
Donít know/Refused
........................................................................5

14. Given Americanís recommendation that Israel not strike Iran, what do you
believe the U.S. governmentís reaction would be if Israel strikes anyway:
It would join the war on Israelís behalf
........................................ 24%
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................21

It would support Israel diplomatically, but not provide
military assistance
........................................................................46
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................49

It would stay
neutral.......................................................................14
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................14

It would punish Israel by withdrawing its current
support to
Israel..............................................................................11
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................12

Donít know/Refused
........................................................................5

15. What do you believe the likely outcome would be if Israel strikes
Iran:

It would delay Iranís capabilities to develop
nuclear weapons by 1-2 years
....................................................... 19%
9% Israeli Jews
.........................................................................15

It would delay Iranís capabilities by 3-5 years
..............................26
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................27

It would delay Iranís capabilities by more
than 5 years
....................................................................................23
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................25

It would accelerate Iranís nuclear program
...................................11
Israeli
Jews.........................................................................11

It would have no effect on Iranís nuclear
program
............................................................................................8
Israeli Jews
...........................................................................9
Donít know/Refused
......................................................................13

[IMRA: Is the next series of question a typical "if pigs could fly"
questions? What is the policy making value of "if pigs could fly" question?
Here is the problem: The people promoting the policy (nuclear free zone)
may not really care if pigs can or cannot fly. In fact, should such a deal
go through they could claim that the pig is indeed flying (namely that the
nuclear inspections are iron clad absolutely foolproof) even though it isn't
and press Israel to give up its nuclear weapons. ] ]

16 Statement: Now I would like you to consider a possible international
agreement for making the Middle East region a zone free of nuclear weapons.
Here is how it would work.

First, all countries in the region, including Iran and Israel, would agree
to have a system of full international inspections of all facilities where
nuclear components could be built or maintained. Would you favor or oppose
such international inspections? Is that strongly or somewhat?

Strongly favor
...............................................................................
26%
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................22

Somewhat favor
.............................................................................29
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................31

Somewhat oppose
..........................................................................17
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................18

Strongly oppose
.............................................................................24
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................25

Donít know/Refused
........................................................................4

Second, once the effectiveness of this inspection system was fully
demonstrated to all countries involved, then all countries in the region,
including Iran and Israel, would commit to not having nuclear weapons. Would
you favor or oppose such a commitment? Is that strongly or somewhat?

Strongly favor
...............................................................................
28%
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................23

Somewhat favor
.............................................................................27
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................29

Somewhat oppose
..........................................................................18
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................18

Strongly oppose
.............................................................................20
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................23

Donít know/Refused
........................................................................8

So finally, I would like you to consider a possible international agreement
for making the Middle East region a zone free of nuclear weapons. First, all
countries in the region, including Iran and Israel, would agree to have a
system of full international inspections of all facilities where nuclear
components could be built or maintained. Once the effectiveness of this
inspection system was fully demonstrated to all countries involved, then all
countries in the region, including Iran and Israel, would commit to not
having nuclear weapons. So now, do you favor or oppose the idea of having a
nuclear weapons free zone in the Middle East that would include both Islamic
countries and Israel? [Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?]

Strongly favor
...............................................................................
29%
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................27

Somewhat favor
.............................................................................29
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................31

Somewhat oppose
..........................................................................15
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................14

Strongly oppose
.............................................................................20
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................22

Donít know/Refused
........................................................................7

17. As you may know, there is some talk about possible negotiations between
Iran and the United States about Iranís nuclear program. If Iran were to
allow UN inspectors permanent and full access throughout Iran, to make sure
it is not developing nuclear weapons, do you think Iran should or should not
be allowed to produce low level nuclear fuel that could only be used for
producing electricity?

Should be allowed
.........................................................................
46%
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................44

Should not be
allowed....................................................................47
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................51

Donít know/Refused
........................................................................7

18. If the Syrian opposition were to gain power, as compared to the Assad
regime, do you think this would be better for Israel or worse for Israel?

Better for Israel
.............................................................................
30%
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................28

Worse for
Israel..............................................................................42
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................42

It wonít make a difference
.............................................................11
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................10

Donít know/Refused
......................................................................18

19. How would you characterize the current conflict in Syria?

It is mostly about ordinary Syrians seeking freedom
from a repressive
regime............................................................... 37%
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................39

It is mostly about Islamist groups trying to take power .................27
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................26

It is mostly a civil war among ethnic factions
...............................28
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................28

Donít know/Refused
........................................................................8

20. Which of the following is closer to your view about the impact of the
Arab Spring on Israel?

It is mostly for the better
............................................................... 15%
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................12

It is mostly for the worse
...............................................................51
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................55

It makes no
difference....................................................................21
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................21

Not sure
............................................................................................5
Israeli Jews
...........................................................................4
21

Donít know/Refused 8 14

21. Thinking about the next four years, what do you think is most likely to
happen to the Israeli-Egyptian Peace Treaty?

It will remain in force in its present form
..................................... 36%
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................37

It will remain in force, but will be modified
..................................41
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................43

It will be terminated
.......................................................................17
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................16

Donít know/Refused
......................................................................76

22. As you may know, Mohamed Morsi has been president of Egypt since June.
Would you say his policies toward Israel have been:

Worse than you expected
.............................................................. 23%
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................22

Better than you
expected................................................................17
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................14

About the same as you expected
....................................................48
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................53

Donít know/Refused
......................................................................12

23. In 2002, Arab countries offered the Arab Peace Initiative, a
comprehensive peace deal with Israel based on Israeli withdrawal from the
territories occupied in the 1967 war and full peace agreements between
Israel and all Arab states. If this offer is renewed with support from Egyptís
new government, how should the Israeli government react? Do you think it
should:

Accept the offer as
proposed......................................................... 13%
Israeli Jews
...........................................................................7
Israeli Arabs
.......................................................................47

Accept the offer as the basis for
negotiation..................................39
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................43
Israeli Arabs
.......................................................................19

Reject the
offer...............................................................................42
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................46
Israeli Arabs
.......................................................................20

Donít know/Refused
........................................................................6

24. Which of the following statements is closer to your view?

I am prepared for a just and comprehensive peace with the Arabs based on the
1967 borders with agreed modifications and the establishment of a peaceful
Palestinian state next
to
Israel..........................................................................................
37%
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................33
Israeli Arabs
.......................................................................60

Even if all the Arab states accept and recognize Israel
I still oppose withdrawing from territories occupied in
1967 and the establishment of a Palestinian state in
the West Bank and Gaza
................................................................30
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................30
Israeli Arabs
.......................................................................32

Neither............................................................................................29
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................33
Israeli Arabs
.........................................................................6

Donít know/Refused
........................................................................4
2

25. Which of the following statements are closest to your view about the
prospects of lasting peace between Israel and the Palestinians?

It will happen in the next five years
................................................ 7%
Israeli Jews
...........................................................................4
Israeli Arabs
.......................................................................24

It is inevitable, but it will take more time
......................................40
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................40
Israeli Arabs
.......................................................................36

I donít believe it will ever happen
.................................................51
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................55
Israeli Arabs
.......................................................................31

Donít know/Refused
........................................................................2
3

26. What do you believe is the likely outcome if the prospects of a
two-state solution of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict collapse?

It will lead to a one-state solution in which Israelis and
Palestinians are equal
.................................................................... 13%
Israeli Jews
...........................................................................5
Israeli Arabs
.......................................................................59

It will lead to a state of intense conflict for years to come ............35
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................38
Israeli Arabs
.......................................................................16

The status quo will continue with little change
.............................37
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................42
Israeli Arabs
.......................................................................10

Palestinians will eventually surrender to Israeli power
give up and integrate into other
societies.........................................6
Israeli Jews
...........................................................................7
Israeli Arabs
.........................................................................4

Donít know/Refused
........................................................................9

27 [Ask Israeli Jews only]
Which of the following is your most important identity?

Jewish............................................................................................
50%
Israeli..............................................................................................37
Citizen of the world
.........................................................................9
My familyís country of
origin......................................................................3
Donít know/Refused
........................................................................1

28 [Ask Israeli Jews only]
Which of the following is closer to your views?

The Jewishness of Israel is more important to me than
its democracy
................................................................................
31%

The democracy of Israel is more important to me than
its Jewishness
.................................................................................33

Both are equally important to
me...................................................35

Donít know/Refused
........................................................................2

29 . How would you describe the current status of Arabs in Israel?

There is full equality between Arab and Jewish citizens .............. 28%
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................29
Israeli Arabs
.......................................................................20

There is legal equality, but institutional and
societal discrimination
...................................................................55
Israeli Jews
.........................................................................56
Israeli Arabs
.......................................................................43

It is an apartheid relationship
.........................................................12
Israeli Jews
...........................................................................8
Israeli Arabs
.......................................................................37

Donít know/Refused
........................................................................6
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