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Friday, December 14, 2012
Dahaf poll: 2 Seats for new party with odd notation

Dahaf poll: 2 Seats for new party with odd notation
Dr. Aaron Lerner - IMRA 14 December 2012

Telephone survey by Dahaf of a representative sample of 750 adult Israelis
(including Arabs) 12-13 December 2012 for Yediot Ahronot.
Published 14 December 2012

If elections held today (expressed in Knesset seats)
Current Knesset seats in [brackets].

35 [42] Likud & Yisrael Beiteinu
19 [13] Labor
11 [11] Shas
11 [07] Jewish Home/NRP & National Union
11 [---] Livni party "Hatnua" Party
08 [---] Lapid "Atid" Party
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah
04 [03] Meretz
02 [---] Otzma Leyisrael (Eldad and Ben Ari)
02 [---] The Israelis **
00 [---] Am Shalem headed by Rabbi Haim Amsalem
00 [28] Kadima
11 [11] Arab parties

** This is a party organized by Chaim Ramon and Livni headed by a popular
television star in the Israeli Russian language channel (considered the
Russian language equivalent of Yair Lapid). The idea of the party is to
draw Russian votes away from the Likud & Ysrael Beiteinu combine ticket.

The report in the newspaper includes the odd notation that the poll actually
found even more than 2 seats for this party without any explanation as to
why the figure was reduced.

Several observations:

#1. Why no explanation?

#2. Was this an "open question" or "closed question"? In a "closed
question" the pollster insists on reading an entire list of alternatives
before accepting an answer from the respondent. If this is the case, one
wonders if people who answered that they would vote for "Hayisraelim" really
knew what they were saying and do in fact intend to vote for this Russian
party or if, instead, they thought that the "The Israelis" was a neat name
and since they were undecided anyway they said they would vote for this
party. One test of this would be what party Hayisraelim voters said that
they voted for in the last elections - or if they are from the Former Soviet
Union.

Unfortunately, Yediot Ahronot and their internet news Ynet don't go into
this. Instead it would appear that they are launching a campaign for the
party.

It should be noted that Yediot Ahronot and their internet news Ynet are
overt supporters of Livni.

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
Website: http://www.imra.org.il

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