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Sunday, December 16, 2012
Prof. Avi Degani of Geocartography to IMRA on poll result showing Bayit Yehudi 16 seats

Prof. Avi Degani of Geocartography to IMRA on poll result showing Bayit
Yehudi 16 seats
Dr. Aaron Lerner - IMRA 16 December 2012

From: Dr. Aaron Lerner
Sent: Sunday, December 16, 2012
To: Prof. Avi Degani
Subject: Question from Aaron Lerner - IMRA about the poll for the Jerusalem
Post Group published last Friday

Dear Prof. Degani,

Two polls were carried out on Wednesday 12 December, 2012 for The Jerusalem
Post Group and published on 14 December.

#1. Geocartography - 500 Israeli adults (including Arabs)
#2 Smith Research - 500 Israeli adults (including Arabs)
(Numbers in [brackets] are current seats in the Knesset)
#1 #2
35 39 [42] Likud & Yisrael Beiteinu
17 19 [13] Labor
10 10 [11] Shas
16 10 [07] Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home/NRP & National Union)
12 09 [---] Lapid "Atid" Party
07 09 [---] Livni party (Hatnua)
06 06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah (UJT)
06 04 [03] Meretz
00 00 [28] Kadima
00 03 [---] Am Shalem headed by Rabbi Haim Amsalem
11 11 [11] Arab parties

I was hoping you might share some insight into the source of the
considerably higher number of seats for Bayit Yehudi in the Geocartography
poll as compared to polls published this past week by other pollsters.

I was wondering, for example, if this is the result of using a more
effective methodology for determining how the "undecided" respondents will
vote.

With your permission I would distribute your reply.

Best regards,
Aaron
Dr. Aaron Lerner - www.imra.org.il

-----

Reply from Prof. Degani:

Dear Dr. Lerner,

Your questions regard the matter of differences between polls which are
published at the same time.

There could be a number of reasons for that:

1. I suspect that the two polls published by Jerusalem Post were not
conducted on the same day - mine probably later , and the Likud+ Israel
Beitenu lost support gradually in time but sharply during last week.
Simultaneously, and related in reason, jumped the Bayit Yehudi +Ichud Leumi
(Naftali Bennet) from 12 to 16.

2. There is the "statistical error" +/- 4.1%

3. Poll makers may treat, or not treat, 'level of certainty' by voters in
whatever they just said in 'voting' in the survey

4. Differences may occur due to different treatment of the percentages of
all those who say "undecided" or refuse to say, etc..

5. Very different figures may result from different treatment of the lost
votes of parties which did not pass the 2% threshold.

6. On top of all these there is a large number of methodological issues
which might affect + quality of info systems, etc..

Best regards,
Prof. Avi Degani
President, CEO
Geocartography Knowledge Group (GCKG)
8 Kehilat Venezia St., Tel-Aviv, ISRAEL 69400
Tel. +972-3-768-2222
Fax +972-3-768-2223
domain: Geocartography.com

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