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Tuesday, December 18, 2012
Poll: If Pigs Can Fly Israelis Support Two State Solution

Dr. Aaron Lerner - IMRA: Go to the website of Blue White Future (BWF) -
http://bluewhitefuture.org and you won't find a copy of the actual poll that
they paid for. Instead there are links both in Hebrew and English to the
same Jerusalem Post item below.

That's too bad.

It seems from what one can glean from the Jerusalem Post article that the
poll was designed to yield some figures that could be used to support the
group's agenda rather than seriously study Israeli public opinion.

Here is the problem: it appears that they are asking what might be termed
"if pigs could fly" questions.

If there was a deal that ACTUALLY could guarantee a "demilitarized
Palestinian state" then the Israeli public would .....

And if Israelis had the choice of an arrangement that could ACTUALLY
guarantee that two states would live "side by side in peace for twenty
years" then ......

But before you run off and tell whoever is bankrolling this campaign that
you have a fantastic poll that shows that the Israeli public supports your
policy recommendations, how about having the guts to ask:

"Do you think that it is realistic to expect a Palestinian state to ACTUALLY
be demilitarized?"

"Do you think it is realistic to expect a Palestinian state to live side by
side in peace for twenty years with Israel?"

But they don't ask these questions.

Perhaps because they know that pretty much every poll to date that has asked
such questions has found that Israelis are a pretty pessimistic bunch. In
fact, even most leftist Israelis sound pessimistic about the prospects of
Palestinian compliance when they are polled on this.

In all due respect to Blue White Future founders Admiral (ret.) Ami Ayalon
and Colonel (res.) Gilead Sher, these are two people who have been
consistently on the wrong side of history in their left-leaning policy
recommendations. Policy recommendations that in the past and also today are
profoundly disconnected from reality.

Why disconnected from reality?

Because their policy recommendations are based on the minority "best case
scenario" that does in fact assume that a Palestinian state will ACTUALLY be
demilitarized and that it is realistic to expect a Palestinian state to live
side by side in peace for twenty years with Israel.

If they want to believe that pigs can fly that's their business.

But if they want to wave around polls to try to show that the Israeli public
supports them then they should at least have the intellectual honesty to
also ask the Israeli public if they share their conviction that pigs can

Poll: Majority of Israelis prefer two-state solution
By GABRIELLA WEINIGER The Jerusalem Post 12/18/2012 11:55

A clear majority of Israelis believe that the establishment of a
demilitarized Palestinian state is Israel's best chance to remain a Jewish
and democratic state in twenty years time, a Smith Research poll showed on

The survey, commissioned by Blue and White Future, was conducted among 500
respondents from a representative sample of the adult Jewish population in

According to the survey, 58% of Israelis would prefer to see Israel remain
as a Jewish, democratic state through fixed state borders along the route of
the West Bank security barrier, seeing Israel preserve its character
alongside a demilitarized Palestinian state.

Responding to the question "Which scenario would you prefer in order for the
state of Israel to maintain its democratic and Jewish character in twenty
years time?" 22% said they believe the status quo will continue (without
annexing the territories) whilst 13% believe Israel will annex the
territories without giving Palestinians full civil rights, and a minority of
7% predict annexing what they see as Judea and Samaria with full civil
rights for citizens. The remaining 58%, as stated, predict two states living
side by side with fixed borders.

According to the poll, a majority of 62% of the Israeli public support the
principle of "two states for two peoples," whilst a large majority (78%) are
concerned about the possibility that Israel will become a bi-national state.

The survey shows that younger people have more right-wing positions than
adults, with 69% of respondents aged fifty and above supporting the
principle of "two states for two peoples" compared to 63% among those aged
30-49 and 42% of those aged 18-29.

Further, 25% of those aged 18-29 supported a scenario involving the
annexation of the territories without giving full rights to the Palestinians
in order to keep Israel a Jewish and democratic state, compared with 16% of
those aged 30-49 and 7% aged fifty and above.

The Co-Chairman of Blue and White Future, Gilad Sher commented on the
findings, saying: "The public is beginning to internalize the idea that a
Jewish, democratic Israel needs to be separated from the Palestinians, with
or without a [peace] agreement."

He added that it is the responsibility of the government to push the two
state solution forward in the interest of Israel's national security.

In a related research study by the Israel Democracy Institute, 58% of
Israelis do not believe that a two-state solution will end the conflict
between Israelis and Palestinians.

The results were revealed during a panel discussion at the Sapir College in
Sderot on Tuesday titled "Agreement for Peace" which engaged public opinion
about the conflict and premises for its resolution.

Prof. Tamar Hermann presented a study carried out by the Israel Democracy
Institute which dealt with the question: "What is the position of the Jewish
public in Israel towards peace with the Palestinians?"

The research showed that peace with the Palestinians in 2012 is not one of
the top priorities for citizens of Israel. Further, it showed the social
justice protests of 2011 had "almost no effect" on the rate of achieving
peace with the Palestinians.

According to the study, the importance of peace and security in 2012 is one
of the lowest measured priorities for the Israeli public. It's index,
according to the study, is 14.7, compared to 56.8 in 1969.

MK Aryeh Eldad commented on the findings, saying the public is "not ready to
buy the faulty product we call Oslo," adding that partition cannot solve the
conflict which is centered around far more than just territory.

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