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Friday, January 11, 2013
Dahaf poll: Likud Beiteinu 33 Labor 18 Bayit Yehudi 14

Dahaf poll: Likud Beiteinu 33 Labor 18 Bayit Yehudi 14
Dr. Aaron Lerner - IMRA 11 January 2013

Telephone survey by Dahaf of a representative sample of 1,000 adult Israelis
(including Arabs) 9-10 January, 2013 for Yediot Ahronot and published on 11
January.

The report notes that the statistical error for reporting 2 mandates is +/-
0.8 mandates and +/- 3 mandates for 33 mandates.

Anyone who took a statistics course might recognize then source of the
estimate.

These error estimates are based on the assumption of a standard normal
distribution so that a 95% standard error distribution for an observed
proportion choosing a party (p) is equal to 1.96 * (((p*(1-p))/sample
size)**0.5)
for example, 33 mandates = 33/120 = 27.5% of the sample so that p=0.275
1.96 *(((0.275*(1-0.275))/1,000)**0.5) = 0.0277 * 120 seats = +/- 3.32
seats

If elections held today (expressed in Knesset seats)
Current Knesset seats in [brackets].
Please note: There are 120 seats in the Knesset. Parties must receive a
minimum of 2% of the valid votes cast in the elections to be included in the
Knesset - this comes to 2.4 seats. After elections are held the coalition
forming a government must receive 61 votes in a vote of confidence in the
Knesset.

33 [42] Likud Beiteinu [Likud & Yisrael Beiteinu]
18 [13] Labor
14 [07] Bayit Yehudi [Jewish Home/NRP & National Union]
11 [---] Lapid "Atid" Party
10 [11] Shas
08 [---] Livni party "Hatnua" Party
06 [03] Meretz
05 [05] Yahadut Hatorah
02 [28] Kadima
02 [---] Otzma Leyisrael (Eldad and Ben Ari)
11 [11] Arab parties
00 [---] Am Shalem headed by Rabbi Haim Amsalem

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
Website: http://www.imra.org.il

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