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Saturday, February 23, 2013
AWRAD Poll of Palestinians: 65.2%:31.9% Oppose new intifada

Do you support or oppose a new third Intifada to achieve the establishment
of an independent Palestinian state?
Total
Support 31.9% Oppose 65.2% Don’t know 2.8%
West Bank
Support 34.1% Oppose 62.1% Don’t know 3.8%
Gaza Strip
Support 28.4% Oppose 70.2% Don’t know 1.3%

Results of an Opinion Poll
Publication Date: 21 February 2013
Fieldwork: 10-12 February 2013
Sample Size: 1200 Palestinians
Margin of error: +/-3%
Arab World for Research & Development.Ramallah – Gaza, Palestine. Tele-fax:
00970-2-2950957/8
E-mail: awrad@awrad.org Website: www.awrad.org
http://www.awrad.org/page.php?id=hyB4pdek4aa9840948ATMccQ1FMo8

Part One: The Public Mood

1- In general, would you say that things in Palestine are heading in the
right direction or the wrong direction?
Right direction 44.0%
Wrong direction 51.0%
Don’t know 5.0%

2- In general, are you optimistic or pessimistic about the future?
Optimistic 60.5%
Pessimistic 37.6%
Don’t know 1.9%

Part Two: UN Quest and Gaza Confrontation Total
3- Two months since President Abbas achieved non-member state status for
Palestine at the UN, do you agree or disagree with the following statements?
The UN vote was a victory for the Palestinian cause
Strongly agree 35.4%
Agree 39.8%
Disagree 18.8%
Strongly disagree 4.3%
I don’t know 1.7%

The UN vote will be followed by tangible progress towards Palestinian
independence
Strongly agree 22.8%
Agree 43.8%
Disagree 26.3%
Strongly disagree 4.3%
I don’t know 2.8%

The UN vote is a victory for President Abbas’ peace-oriented approach to
Palestinian independence
Strongly agree 32.7%
Agree 40.0%
Disagree 20.3%
Strongly disagree 4.1%
I don’t know 3.0%

The UN vote will have no impact on Palestinian affairs
Strongly agree 16.1%
Agree 35.7%
Disagree 38.9%
Strongly disagree 6.3%
I don’t know 3.0%

The UN vote will negatively affect the economy of the West Bank
Strongly agree 36.7%
Agree 40.3%
Disagree 14.3%
Strongly disagree 2.4%
I don’t know 6.3%

The UN vote will strengthen the Palestinian Authority
Strongly agree 29.8%
Agree 41.7%
Disagree 20.3%
Strongly disagree 4.9%
I don’t know 3.3%

4- In general, do you believe that the Palestinian cause was advanced by
the recent UN vote?
Advanced 36.9%
Set back 27.6%
Not changed 33.5%
I don’t know 1.9%

5- In the wake of the cease-fire agreement in Gaza between Palestinian
groups led by Hamas and the Government of Israel, do you agree or disagree
with the following statements?

The confrontation and the resulting truce represent a victory for
Palestinians
Strongly agree 37.2%
Agree 40.4%
Disagree 17.6%
Strongly disagree 3.1%
I don’t know 1.8%

The results of the Gaza conflict will lead to tangible progress towards
Palestinian independence
Strongly agree 26.5%
Agree 43.8%
Disagree 24.3%
Strongly disagree 2.6%
I don’t know 2.8%

The results of the Gaza conflict will lead to reconciliation and unity
Strongly agree 28.2%
Agree 45.8%
Disagree 19.3%
Strongly disagree 4.0%
I don’t know 2.7%

The Gaza conflict and resulting truce will lead to no real change in the
realities of Palestinians
Strongly agree 13.2%
Agree 40.2%
Disagree 36.0%
Strongly disagree 7.6%
I don’t know 3.1%

6- In general, do you believe that the Palestinian cause has been
advanced by recent events in Gaza?
Advanced 44.4%
Set back 18.0%
Not changed 36.1%
I don’t know 1.5%

7- After more than two months of the UN initiative and the Gaza conflict,
would you say that your view of the following parties/leaders has improved
or diminished?
The PA
Improved 27.3%
Somewhat improved 34.4%
Diminished 27.8%
Somewhat diminished 4.8%
Don’t know 5.8%

President Abbas
Improved 34.6%
Somewhat improved 33.9%
Diminished 21.5%
Somewhat diminished 3.9%
Don’t know 6.0%

Fatah
Improved 32.1%
Somewhat improved 35.1%
Diminished 21.9%
Somewhat diminished 4.3%
Don’t know 6.6%

Hamas
Improved 32.1%
Somewhat improved 34.2%
Diminished 21.5%
Somewhat diminished 3.1%
Don’t know 9.1%

Islamic Jihad
Improved 24.9%
Somewhat improved 34.4%
Diminished 21.2%
Somewhat diminished 3.3%
Don’t know 16.1%

Ismael Haniyeh
Improved 32.3%
Somewhat improved 32.8%
Diminished 20.4%
Somewhat diminished 3.4%
Don’t know 11.1%

KhaledMeshaal
Improved 33.8%
Somewhat improved 29.9%
Diminished 19.9%
Somewhat diminished 3.4%
Don’t know 12.9%

The Egyptian Government
Improved 31.4%
Somewhat improved 30.7%
Diminished 20.1%
Somewhat diminished 5.6%
Don’t know 12.2%

8- Two months since the UN vote and the Gaza conflict, which approach do
you Prefer to advance Palestinian independence?
The approach supported by Fatah and President Abbas 43.6%
The approach supported by Hamas and other militant groups 28.3%
Other 15.4%
I don’t know 12.7%

9- Do you support or oppose the return to negotiations at this time?
Support 53.8%
Oppose 43.1%
I don’t know 3.1%

10- Would you support or oppose the return to negotiations at this time,
if Israel were to stop settlement building in the West Bank?
Support 68.1%
Oppose 29.8%
I don’t know 2.1%

11- Do you think that recent Israeli elections (Knesset) will advance,
set back, or will not change movement towards a permanent solution of the
Israeli-Palestinian struggle?
Advance 10.6%
Set back 23.6%
Not changed anything 55.9%
I don’t know 9.9%

12- Do you support the principle of a two-state solution with a
Palestinian state living side-by-side in peace with Israel?
Support 46.7%
Oppose 50.2%
I don’t know 3.1%

Part Three: Elections West Bank Gaza Total

13- Did you hear about the updating of the electoral records announced by
the Central Elections Committee in the West Bank and Gaza?
Yes 65.6%
No 34.4%

14- Do you think that the next step after the updating of the electoral
records will be legislative and presidential elections?
Yes 70.7%
No 19.5%
I don’t know 9.8%

15- Do you support the immediate holding of legislative elections in both
the West Bank and Gaza?
Yes 86.8%
To some extent 10.2%
No 3.1%

16- Do you support the immediate holding of presidential elections in
both the West Bank and Gaza?
Yes 86.2%
To some extent 11.2%
No 2.6%

17- If elections took place today and the following lists ran, which one
would you vote for?
Fatah 41.5%
Hamas 17.5%
PFLP 2.8%
Al Mubadara 1.8%
Islamic Jihad 1.4%
DFLP 1.1%
PPP 0.3%
HizbTahrir 0.3%
Palestinian Struggle Front 0.2%
Fida 0.1%
Other 1.2%
I didn’t decide yet 18.1%
I will not vote 13.8%

18- From the following list, who will you vote for as president of the
Palestinian State?
Mahmoud Abbas 29.8%
Ismael Haniyeh 11.4%
Marwan Barghouthi 11.0%
Khaled Meshaal 6.1%
Mustafa Barghouthi 4.2%
Ahmad Saadat 2.8%
Salam Fayyad 2.3%
Mohammed Dahlan 1.8%
Nasser Al Deen Al Shaer 1.3%
Ramadan Shalah 1.1%
Mahmoud Aloul 0.6%
Mahmoud Al Zahhar 0.2%
Mahmoud Abbas 29.8%
Ismael Haniyeh 11.4%

19- If only the following two candidates ran for presidential elections,
who would you vote for?
Mahmoud Abbas 47.0%
Khaled Mashaal 23.3%
I don’t know\ not sure 12.2%
Will not vote 17.5%

20- If only the following two candidates ran for presidential elections,
who would you vote for?
Mahmoud Abbas 47.3%
Ismael Haniya 22.8%
I don’t know\ not sure 12.1%
Will not vote 17.8%
Part Four: Reconciliation Total

21- Are you optimistic or pessimistic about reconciliation between Fatah
and Hamas?
Optimistic 68.6%
Pessimistic 28.8%
I don’t know 2.6%

22- Do you believe that Fatah is serious about ending the division?
Yes 65.4%
No 29.5%
I don’t know 5.1%

23- Do you believe that Hamas is serious about ending the division?
Yes 51.9%
No 41.0%
I don’t know 7.1%

24- To end the present impasse between Fatah and Hamas, which one of the
following is the best approach in your opinion?
Immediate call for legislative and presidential elections in the West Bank
and Gaza 36.4%
Continue to pursue reconciliation talks 19.3%
Popular pressure on both Fatah and Hamas 32.0%
Nothing will work to resolve this issue 10.2%
Don’t know 2.2%

Part Five: The PA and Government Total

25- Within the medium term, do you believe that the PA will be able to
survive?
Will definitely survive 48.8%
Possible that it will survive 19.6%
Possible that it will collapse 16.7%
Will definitely collapse 8.6%
I don’t know 6.3%

26- In general, how do you evaluate the performance of the government led
by Salam Fayyad?
Positive 22.0%
Average 35.4%
Negative 38.6%
I don’t know 4.0%

27- In general, how do you evaluate the performance of the government led
by Ismael Haniyeh
Positive 28.4%
Average 36.4%
Negative 27.0%
I don’t know 8.2%

28- If you had a choice between the two governments, the Fayyad-led and
the Haniyeh-led, which would you choose to govern in your region?
The Haniyeh – led government 28.4%
The Fayyad – led government 27.9%
Neither of the two 36.9%
Don’t know 6.9%

29- If a unity government were agreed upon, which one of the following
leaders would you prefer to see as Prime Minister?
Ismael Haniyeh 27.8%
Salam Fayyad 23.9%
Munib Masri 7.1%
Mustafa Barghouthi 19.0%
Ziad Abu Amer 1.3%
Hanan Ashrawi 5.3%
Jamal al Khudari 1.3%
Other 14.3%

30- Would you say that you approve or disapprove of the overall
performance of the following leaders?
Mahmoud Abbas
Approve 57.9%
Disapprove 38.3%
I don’t know 3.8%

Salam Fayyad
Approve 38.9%
Disapprove 56.1%
I don’t know 5.0%

Ismael Haniyeh
Approve 45.3%
Disapprove 48.3%
I don’t know 6.4%

Khaled Meshaal
Approve 44.3%
Disapprove 48.5%
I don’t know 7.3%

Part Six: Popular Protests

31- Have you heard about recent popular protest activities such as the
village of "Bab-Al Shams"
Yes 49.6%
No 50.4%

32- If yes, do you think that this kind of protest activity will have a
real impact on ending the occupation?
Yes 68.9%
No 26.7%
Don’t know 4.4%

33- Would you participate in this kind of popular protest?
Yes 64.9%
No 28.4%
Don’t know 6.8%

34- Do you support or oppose a new third Intifada to achieve the
establishment of an independent Palestinian state?

West Bank
Support 34.1%
Oppose 62.1%
Don’t know 3.8%

Gaza Strip
Support 28.4%
Oppose 70.2%
Don’t know 1.3%

Total
Support 31.9%
Oppose 65.2%
Don’t know 2.8%

35- In your opinion, the outbreak of a third Intifada would lead to:
Progress in the status of the Palestinian issue 25.1%
Decline in the status of the Palestinian issue 40.8%
Unconfirmed, mixed results 29.7%
Don’t know 4.5%

36- If the Palestinian National Authority proves unable to establish a
Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza, which of the following
solutions would you support?
International solution that imposes guardianship of Palestine 12.8%
One bi-national state 14.3%
Dissolving the PA and handing responsibility for the territories back to
Israel 7.6%
Confederation with Jordan until the establishment of an independent
Palestinian state 10.4%
Transferring authority in the West Bank to Hamas 15.5%
Other solution 4.9%
None of the above 25.2%
Don’t know 9.3%

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