Iraq Effect: Germany Fears US Intervention in Syria
By Severin Weiland and Matthias Gebauer
Spiegel Online 15 May 2013
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/berlin-sees-chemical-weapons-as-trigger-for-intervention-in-syria-a-899962.html

German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle. Germany is worried that fears
over chemical weapons could lead to military intervention in Syria.

The German government is starting to worry about parallels between the Iraq
war 10 years ago and the Syrian conflict. The Foreign Ministry believes that
mounting concern over the possible use of chemical weapons by the Assad
regime could prompt the US government to launch a military intervention.

German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle is about to fly to Israel where he
will hold talks with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu among others. An
important topic will be Syria, where Westerwelle sees the planned conference
between the US and Russia as a possible foundation for a political solution
to the civil war.

Addressing leaders of his Free Democratic Party (FDP) on Tuesday,
Westerwelle painted a grim scenario of what would happen if the Syrian state
disintegrated, warning that the civil war could spill over into neighboring
Jordan and that the international community might be drawn into the
conflict.

"There's concern in the foreign ministry and among the the FDP parliamentary
group that there could be a military solution in Syria's case," said one
lawmaker who took part in the meeting with Westerwelle. "The FDP leadership
is worried that the US government could come under such pressure
domestically and internationally that it would conclude it has to do
something, and would then seek evidence to justify military intervention."

Similarities With Run-Up to Iraq War

Recent reports that chemical weapons had been used in Syria have sounded
alarm bells in Berlin. There is no firm evidence of their use so far, and US
President Barack Obama evidently doesn't want to be pulled into the war --
although he has described the use of chemicals by the Assad regime as a red
line.

But talk of chemical weapons has awakened memories of the run-up to the 2003
Iraq war and of false intelligence claiming the regime of Saddam Hussein had
weapons of mass destruction.

The picture is similarly unclear in Syria. British and American agencies
have been supplying Germany with intelligence about Syria, but always in the
form of intelligence assessments rather than concrete information such as
exact laboratory data on soil samples that could point to the use of
chemical weapons. As a result, it's virtually impossible to reach an
independent conclusion, says the German foreign intelligence agency, BND.
Westerwelle and Defense Minister Thomas de Maizière have therefore been
cautious in their statements on Syria.

BND Cautious

The BND doubts whether Assad is preparing a chemical war. Aerial
reconnaissance hasn't shown any indications that the government is
activating ballistic missiles that would be necessary for a major chemical
attack, say experts. But they add that the regime may be using chemical
weapons material in smaller doses against the rebels to test whether and how
quickly the West will find out.

Westerwelle is worried that the Syrian conflict could end up forcing Germany
into a similar dilemma as did the Libyan conflict two years ago when Germany
abstained in a UN Security council vote on NATO air operations to support
rebels against dictator Muammar Gadhafi. Germany, and especially
Westerwelle, drew criticism at home and abroad for that move.

Westerwelle has adopted a more flexible stance in the last two years. But
he, like Chancellor Angela Merkel, has been extremely skeptical about
whether the rebels should be armed. He keeps repeating that his foreign
policy is firmly based on a "culture of military reticence."