“If Syrian President Assad reacts by attacking Israel, or tries to strike
Israel through his terrorist proxies,” the official said, “he will risk
forfeiting his regime, for Israel will retaliate.”

Israel Hints at New Strikes, Warning Syria Not to Hit Back
By MARK LANDLER The New York Times Published: May 15, 2013
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/16/world/middleeast/israeli-official-signals-possibility-of-more-syria-strikes.html?hp&_r=0&pagewanted=all

WASHINGTON — In a clear warning to Syria to stop the transfer of advanced
weapons to Islamic militants in the region, a senior Israeli official
signaled on Wednesday that Israel was considering additional military
strikes to prevent that from happening and that the Syrian president, Bashar
al-Assad, would face crippling consequences if he retaliated.

“Israel is determined to continue to prevent the transfer of advanced
weapons to Hezbollah,” the Israeli official said. “The transfer of such
weapons to Hezbollah will destabilize and endanger the entire region.”

“If Syrian President Assad reacts by attacking Israel, or tries to strike
Israel through his terrorist proxies,” the official said, “he will risk
forfeiting his regime, for Israel will retaliate.”

The Israeli official, who had been briefed by high-level officials on Israel’s
assessment of the situation in Syria, declined to be identified, citing the
need to protect internal Israeli government deliberations. He contacted The
New York Times on Wednesday.

The precise motives for Israel’s warning were uncertain: Israel could be
seeking to restrain Syria’s behavior to avoid taking further military
action, or alerting other countries to another military strike. That would
increase the tension in an already fraught situation in Syria, where a civil
war has been raging for more than two years.

There could be a secondary audience for the warning, analysts said, in
Hezbollah and its primary supporter, Iran. Hezbollah, which is based in
Lebanon, has said in recent days it could use weapons supplied by Iran to
retaliate for recent Israeli strikes on Syria.

Nearly two weeks ago, Israeli warplanes carried out two strikes in Syria,
the first hitting bases of Syria’s elite Republican Guard and storehouses of
long-range missiles, in addition to a military research center that American
officials have called the country’s main chemical weapons site.

A more limited strike on May 3 at Damascus International Airport was also
meant to destroy weapons being sent from Iran to Hezbollah. The Israeli
government did not confirm either of the attacks, which followed another
earlier this year.

The Syrian government publicly condemned Israel for the assaults, saying it
“opened the door to all possibilities.” The Syrian deputy foreign minister,
Faisal Mekdad, declared, “We will respond immediately and harshly to any
additional attack by Israel.”

Mr. Assad and Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, have each said in
recent days that the Israeli-Syrian border, which has been relatively quiet
despite the more than two years of civil war inside Syria, could become a
“resistance front,” in response to Israeli attacks.

On Wednesday, mortar shells, fired from across the Syrian border, landed in
the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. The shells landed on Mount Hermon, a
popular tourist site, and were the latest in a series of what Israel has
generally considered errant fire from internal Syrian fighting.

Israel did not fire back, as it had on several previous occasions, but it
closed Mount Hermon to the public for several hours during a Jewish holiday
on which hiking in the Golan is popular.

In his comments, the Israeli official said that “Israel has so far refrained
from intervening in Syria’s civil war and will maintain this policy as long
as Assad refrains from attacking Israel directly or indirectly.”

“Israel,” he said, “will continue its policy of interdicting attempts to
strengthen Hezbollah, but will not intercede in the Syrian civil war as long
as Assad desists from direct or indirect attacks against Israel.”

Mark Regev, a spokesman for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel,
declined to discuss the meaning of the Israeli official’s statement. “We’re
not going to comment on the story,” he said.

American and Israeli political analysts agree that Israel has little motive
to intervene in Syria’s civil war, but that it is deeply concerned about the
transfer of advanced weapons, as well as the danger that Mr. Assad’s
stockpiles of chemical weapons could be used against it.

Amos Yadlin, Israel’s former military intelligence chief who now directs the
Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, said that the timing of
the warning could have been linked to intelligence Israel had received about
something it wanted to prevent.

That, he said, could be a Syrian intention to react, albeit belatedly, to
the recent airstrikes on its soil, an imminent shipment of weapons to
Hezbollah, or signs of action by Syrian proxies in the Golan Heights.

Mr. Yadlin said that, aside from Mr. Assad, Russia could be another intended
recipient for the Israeli official’s message. Two of the weapons systems
that Israel has identified as game-changing “red line weapons” — SA-17
antiaircraft weapons and Yakhont shore-to-sea missiles — were supplied by
the Russians, he added. The convoy that Israeli warplanes struck in January
was carrying SA-17 antiaircraft weapons.

A Western diplomatic official who works in the region said that after the
recent airstrikes, Israel had sent a similar message to Mr. Assad through
back channels — probably Russia — saying it was not attacking his government
but would do so if he retaliated. Perhaps, this official said, Jerusalem now
wanted to broadcast the message publicly because the real audience is Iran
and Hezbollah, whose leaders have been among the loudest threatening
responses.

“It’s probably doubling down on the message to make sure it’s known to him
and the others,” he said, also on the condition he not be named because of
the delicacy of the situation. “Maybe some of the others who are calling on
him to respond but also have an interest in him surviving would hear it
better from this channel than other channels. Maybe it’s more directed at
Iran and Hezbollah than it is at Syria.”

As for whether the timing of the statement indicated an imminent strike,
this official said, “I wouldn’t think they would telegraph a punch like that
so publicly.”

Jodi Rudoren and Isabel Kershner contributed reporting from Jerusalem.

This article has been revised to reflect the following correction:

Correction: May 15, 2013

An earlier version of this article misspelled the surname of Hassan
Nasrallah.