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Sunday, July 27, 2014 |
Amos Yadlin: Operation Protective Edge: Six Insights, |
Operation Protective Edge: Six Insights, Six Recommendations SUMMARY: In contrast to the cliched statement that there is no military = solution to terrorism, Israel has proven it can solve systemic terrorist = threats against it militarily. Nonetheless, the political solution is alway= to be preferred. The long term political solution for Gaza is the continued = weakening of Hamas =96 economically, politically, and militarily =96 and th= creation of better political alternatives for both the Palestinians and = Israel. Over the last two years, Hamas has been politically and financially = weakened. If, after Operation Protective Edge, it is militarily weakened as = well, it will be possible =96 together with Egypt, the moderate Arab states= and the international community =96 to bring the PA back to Gaza, ensure = economic development there, and gradually lift the blockade. This, plus the = prevention of force buildup and the demilitarization of the Gaza Strip, wil= be key factors in stabilizing Gaza and steering it toward favorable = development. Asymmetrical strategic equilibrium: After nearly three weeks of = confrontation between Israel and terrorist organizations in the Gaza Strip, = during which some 1,500 rockets have been fired at Israeli cities and towns = and Israel has undertaken some 3,500 aerial strikes on Gaza, there is a = strategic equilibrium, albeit essentially asymmetrical, between Israel and = Hamas. The =93asymmetric draw=94 is an important concept that likewise depi= some of Israel=92s past strategic situations. The current asymmetry stems = first of all from the fact that Hamas operates by the rules of a terrorist = organization firing indiscriminately at civilians, whereas Israel, governed = by international law, restricts itself to strike only military targets and = labors to avoid harming innocent bystanders. A second point of asymmetry has to do with the objective of the = confrontation and the definition of victory. Hamas can claim that it = disrupted the civilian routine throughout Israel and damaged Israel=92s = economy and its foreign relations without being defeated. Given the = asymmetry of military means, a non-defeat is, from Hamas=92 perspective, a = victory. Therefore, projecting a picture of victory is easy: it is enough t= show Israelis lying down on the side of the road when sirens warn of = incoming rockets and the pictures of soldiers killed in battle on the front = pages of the country=92s newspapers. Israel, by contrast, must deal Hamas a = truly heavy blow in order to achieve its strategic objectives. On the other hand, Israel enjoys an immeasurable qualitative advantage in = terms of the power of its weapon systems compared to those available to = Hamas and hence also the ability to escalate the campaign =96 a prerogative = Hamas has already lost. This aspect of asymmetry has grown even more = pronounced, because Hamas has resumed operating like a resistance terrorist = group, having handed responsibility for the Gaza Strip back to the PA and = the government of technocrats convened following the reconciliation = agreement with Fatah. Hamas=92 internal balance of power has shifted in fav= of the military wing, which has bolstered its status as the major element o= power in the organization. Defensive strategy: Both sides have excelled in their defensive strategies. = Israel astounded Hamas and the world at large with its ability to provide a= almost hermetic response to Hamas=92 rocket attacks, which have hit the = proverbial brick wall in the form of Israel=92s Iron Dome. Thanks to good = intelligence and effective, rapid operational activity, Israel has foiled = most of Hamas=92 surprises, especially mass-casualty terrorist attacks and = abductions via tunnels dug into Israel. Hamas has concentrated on defending = its military wing and political leadership, which have disappeared = underground into reinforced bunkers beneath civilian installations. = Ironically, the =93iron dome=94 protecting Hamas=92 military wing is Gaza= civilian population =96 the very population that Hamas places on rooftops = and =96 contrary to international law =96 in close proximity to firepower = activity and the hideouts of its command structure. Preparedness for the confrontation: Hamas prepared well for this round of = fighting. It seems to have studied the IDF strategy and operational tools o= the 2009 and 2012 operations and devised a systemic response to them. The = IDF, which did not initiate the current confrontation, was dragged into it = without an up-to-date strategy, an effective opening strike, new operationa= ideas, and sufficient understanding of the enemy=92s rationale. Israel seem= to have assumed that Hamas would be pressured by the increased scope and = intensity of the attacks and would therefore be forced to end the = confrontation in similar fashion to the way it ended previous rounds. = However, relinquishing responsibility on the civic and political fronts = freed Hamas up to ignore Israel=92s attacks on =93the State of Gaza=94 and = concentrate instead on the military wing. This change in Hamas=92 approach = not penetrate IDF thinking, which tallied airstrikes instead of = concentrating on targeting the military wing=92s commanders and capabilitie= The IDF clung to the concept of =93another round=94 and the graduated use o= force, instead of changing its paradigm and treating this as a confrontatio= unlike those of the past. Attainment of goals: At the time of this writing, the strategic goals of th= operations have not been achieved. Israel has not yet formulated a systemic = approach and the appropriate offensive operational tools to achieve its = strategic goals. Ten days ago Israel was forced to act to upset the = strategic stalemate in light of the understanding that even the modest goal= of the operation presented by the Prime Minister =96 restoring the calm, = rehabilitating Israel=92s deterrence, and dealing the military wing of Hama= harsh blow =96 were not achieved by the aerial phase alone. However, the = limited ground maneuver Israel has undertaken, designed to destroy the = tunnels, has likewise not changed the situation dramatically. This phase, = which neutralizes a significant Hamas strategic capability and thereby = denies Hamas the opportunity to escalate the situation, is very important, = but is by no means enough. The survival of Hamas=92 military wing is an = achievement for Hamas, along with its ability to continue launching rockets = at Israel=92s civilian front throughout the fighting and even to disrupt = civilian air traffic to Israel. The ground incursion as it has unfolded to = date is far from maximizing IDF power, is focused primarily on defensive = activity, and is not marked by the requisite creativity =96 whereas Hamas h= clearly internalized lessons from previous rounds. Is the inadequate damage = to Hamas=92 military wing the result of intelligence flaws? Or, if the = inadequate damage is intentional, does it stem from the justified concern = not to harm innocent bystanders? Or is the operating assumption =96 that Ha= should be preserved as responsible for Gaza =96 simply incorrect? The importance of legitimacy: Israel enjoys a relatively high degree of = legitimacy, among its allies and even in the Arab world, stemming from Hama= refusal to accept the Prime Minister=92s =93calm for calm=94 proposal in th= initial days of the operation, its refusal to accept the Egyptian ceasefire = proposal, and the blatancy with which it violated the humanitarian = ceasefire. Not only President Obama and Chancellor Merkel support Israel=92= right to defend itself against rockets aimed at civilians; the Egyptian = Foreign Minister held Hamas responsible for the civilians killed in Gaza du= to its refusal to endorse the ceasefire accepted by Israel. At the same = time, while Israel may have the understanding of Western leaders, it does = not enjoy the support of international public opinion affected by the = graphic photographs of civilian death and destruction coming from Gaza. Wit= the dissemination of photographs taken during the humanitarian ceasefire, = the pressure of public opinion has risen and become a subject of = consideration for Israeli decision makers, although not to the same degree = as in previous confrontations The regional aspect =96 risks and opportunities: Thus far, concerns and = forecasts of a regional escalation have proven unfounded. Demonstrations by = Arabs in Israel and the West Bank in the first two weeks of the operation = did not exceed the scope of demonstrations prior to the operation. With the = third week of the operation, initial signs of greater unrest surfaced, alon= with fatalities on the West Bank. Nonetheless, the assumption remains that = violent third intifada is not the option preferred by President Abbas and P= leaders in Ramallah. Its cost is understood and represents a serious = deterrent. The few rockets fired from Lebanon and Syria were not the openin= volleys of a second front, and Israel contained these isolated events well. = The rockets were launched by small, fringe Palestinian organizations = incapable of setting another front ablaze. Neither Hizbollah, enmeshed in = fighting jihadists in Syria, nor Assad will open a military front on behalf = of Hamas, which two years ago abandoned the radical pro-Iranian axis. The = nuclear talks with Iran, which were extended last week, also did not end in = a crisis or a =93bad deal,=94 thus diverting Israel=92s attention. Addition= the crisis exposed the regional set of alliances and overlapping interests. = The fact that Israel, Egypt, the PA, and the Arab Gulf states (excluding = Qatar) are aligned against Hamas and its allies represents opportunities fo= diplomatic and financial activity against Hamas and the channeling of other = issues in a positive direction in the wider Palestinian arena. Six Recommended Action Items Changing the basic assumption that Hamas must be preserved as the entity = responsible for Gaza: This assumption causes multiple damage: it prevents = extremely harsh damage to Hamas lest it fall; it makes Hamas think it can = extend the fighting without paying for it with its own demise; and it = prevents the possibility in the long term of restoring the PA as Gaza=92s = dominant power. The assumption that if Hamas falls it will be succeeded by = more radical groups requires closer analysis. What organization can threate= Israel more than Hamas and shoot rockets farther than Haifa? What element = can dig dozens of terrorist tunnels? It is time to rethink the doomsday = forecasts of =93a global jihad tsunami=94 that haven=92t materialized in th= past =96 neither from Afghanistan to Iraq, nor from Sinai to the Golan. Any = radical organization that seizes control of Gaza should Hamas collapse (and = it is not at all clear that every Hamas substitute would be radical) would = have to spend years building the terrorist infrastructure Hamas has already = constructed. Continued military pressure =96 from both the ground and air =96 to inflict = severe damage on Hamas=92 military wing: Once we shake off the assumption t= Hamas must be preserved as the responsible party in Gaza, attention must = focus on expanding the military move to deal a severe blow to Hamas=92 = military wing. The military wing is preventing the ceasefire and must = therefore be pummeled and weakened. The entrance of ground troops has = already resulted in some achievements: the discovery and destruction of = tunnels, limited damage to the military wing, and engagement that has = yielded new, high quality intelligence. Still, the current ground campaign = is not a maneuver that unsettles the enemy=92s equilibrium. Thus the campai= should continue, and Gaza should be sectioned into different units. This = would generate pressure on specific areas from which Hamas is firing and in = which it has a significant military presence. Surprise maneuvers, = encirclement, the destruction of rocket launch sites, evacuation of = civilians, and intelligence and operational efforts to reach Hamas=92 = manufacturing, launch, and command and control centers are all necessary = moves. The leadership of Hamas must decide that a ceasefire is preferable t= continued fighting. It must feel that the noose is tightening and the IDF i= closing in. Working toward an unequivocal balance favoring Israel: Ending the campaign = against Hamas with a strategic deadlock would project Israeli weakness = elsewhere as well. Hamas is Israel=92s weakest enemy. Hizbollah has many mo= missiles and rockets and many more warheads of much greater accuracy. = Damascus and Tehran too will study the results of the current campaign. To = be sure, every arena has its particular features and Israel=92s deterrence = against states is much more effective than against terrorist organizations. = However, a drawn-out campaign without a clear-cut decision =96 the fourth i= row =96 in which Israel undertakes a limited ground maneuver while leaving = enemy with strategic military capabilities because it is protected by = civilians, and failure to destroy Hamas=92 military and civilian leadership= are only some of the factors constituting the final balance liable to erode = Israel=92s deterrence and lead to other confrontations in arenas much more = complex than Gaza. The systemic rationale driving the IDF must be that Hama= must pay an immeasurably high price, not only in infrastructures but = primarily in its key force components, the leadership and senior military = command, and the ability to attack the State of Israel. Preventing future force buildup is essential for a long period of calm: = Neither Operation Cast Lead nor Operation Pillar of Defense created = effective mechanisms for preventing Hamas=92 subsequent force buildup. When = examining the arrangement that will be reached at the end of the operation, = it is critical to understand that without dealing with force buildup, the = next round will be postponed only because of deterrence. Israel=92s deterre= vis-a-vis Hizbollah is extremely strong (thanks to several factors: the blo= Hizbollah was dealt in 2006, which far exceeded what it expected; its = responsibility for the Lebanese state; intra-ethnic sensitivities in = Lebanon; and the fact that it has no legitimacy for attacking Israel). = Against Hamas, Israel=92s deterrence was not effective enough and did not = ensure a long period of calm. It is therefore important to ensure that Hama= force rehabilitation be very slow to nonexistent. The fact that Egypt is = currently effective in preventing smuggling, the understandings with other = Arab nations opposed to Hamas about joint activity against Hamas=92 force = buildup, and Israel=92s right to act against the domestic manufacture of = strategic weapons and rockets must all be part of any arrangement at the en= of Operation Protective Edge. Ending the economic blockade: Part of Hamas=92 ongoing endurance is explain= by its spokesmen: =93We have nothing to lose; the situation in Gaza is so d= that we=92re not afraid of military blows or the Israeli occupation.=94 Thi= propaganda that will not survive the test of more pressure on Hamas. = Nonetheless, in any future arrangement, it behooves Israel to distinguish = between the economic blockade, which must be relaxed, and the military = siege, which must be strictly enforced. Wherever there is tension between = economic development in Gaza and possible force buildup, the prevention of = any force buildup must be paramount. Economic development of Gaza, which = will turn the Gazan population to a more positive channel, reduce support = for terrorism based on despair, and underscore the cost Gazans will have to = pay in another round of violence, is a vested Israeli interest. Therefore, = Israel must enlist the international community and moderate Arab nations in = an economic development project for Gaza. A political horizon: In contrast to the cliched statement that there is no = military solution to terrorism, Israel has proven it can solve systemic = terrorist threats against it militarily. Nonetheless, the political solutio= is always to be preferred. That said, a political solution without a = militarily advantageous position and the other side=92s understanding that = military confrontation will not promote its political goal can only fail. = The long term political solution for Gaza is the continued weakening of = Hamas =96 economically, politically, and militarily =96 and the creation of = better political alternatives for both the Palestinians and Israel. Over th= last two years, Hamas has been politically and financially weakened. If, = after Operation Protective Edge, it is militarily weakened as well, it will = be possible =96 together with Egypt, the moderate Arab states, and the = international community =96 to bring the PA back to Gaza, ensure economic = development there, and gradually lift the blockade. This, plus the = prevention of force buildup and the demilitarization of the Gaza Strip, wil= be key factors in stabilizing Gaza and steering it toward favorable = development. Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on A= Website: www.imra.org.il For free regular subscription: For free daily digest subscription: IMRA is now also on Twitter |
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