Excerpts: Rapid transformation of ISIS July 29, 2014

+++SOURCE: Al Arabiya News 29July’14:”ISIS: Rapid transformation from
militia to state”, by Raed Omari *
SUBJECT: Rapid transformation ISIS
QUOTE:”ISIS:in less than two months, it has gone from a militia to a
self-proclaimed caliphate”
The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria has probably undergone the quickest
transformation to statehood in modern history. In less than two months, it
has gone from a militia to a self-proclaimed caliphate.

ISIS controls large parts of Iraq and Syria. In addition to its military
power, it is said to be building an economy from taxes, theft, and
black-market oil and gas sales.

Its horrific abuses have led to anger among those under its rule. However,
there has been a gradual acceptance of a new reality, and a preference to
the sectarian rule of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Iraqi Prime
Minister Nouri al-Maliki. I was shocked to hear this from Syrians and Iraqis
living under ISIS.

The detachment of ISIS from Al-Qaeda has enabled ISIS to act independently
without carring al-Qaeda's reputation and baggage. The near future is
expected to bring about an abrupt change in Al-Qaeda’s radical ideology
towards more moderation due to ISIS’s brutality and intolerance. This
resembles the decades-old ideological disagreements between the Muslim
Brotherhood and the Salafist movement: when one shows extremism, the other
shows moderation.

The relationship between ISIS and Al-Qaeda also resembles that between the
Taliban and Al-Qaeda. As ISIS is an offshoot of Al-Qaeda, the Taliban in
Afghanistan were either members of the latter, or received military training
and guidance from it. Given present realities, we may even see ISIS with a
central place at the negotiating table.

Exploiting the state of chaos and sectarianism prevailing Iraq and Syria,
where the Arab Sunnis blame Shiite Iran for their marginalization, ISIS has
presented itself as the defender of the Sunni identity in a bid to gain the
sympathy of those sidelined segments. Prominent Islamist groups researcher
Hassan Abu Hanieh has written an insightful piece on such a notion,
attributing ISIS’s success in building alliances with the Iraqi Arab Sunnis
to the latter’s belief in the Sunni Islamist militia’s willingness to
eradicate Maliki’s Shiite government.

Throughout its state-building endeavor, ISIS has been adopting an “alluring”
narrative, so to speak, full of anti-Iran sentiments in an effort to add
legitimacy to its rule over the Sunni communities in Syria and Iraq. Its
abhorrence of the “imposed” territorial state as opposed to the collective
Islamic state, or Caliphate, has no doubt attracted supporters who still
blame the Levant’s and Arab Peninsula’s woes to the 1916 Sykes-Picot
Agreement. A video showing ISIS members from Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and
other countries tearing and burning their passports was meant to show the
group’s alluring belief in the collective Muslim identity.

All in all, ISIS’s presence and rule within the region is largely linked to
Syria and Iraq restoring their security and stability. Once people in those
pivotal war-torn countries succeed in eliminating the totalitarian rule of
Assad and Maliki, their next target will be definitely destroying ISIS's
"caliphate."

Throughout its state-building endeavor, ISIS has been adopting an “alluring”
narrative, so to speak, full of anti-Iran sentiments in an effort to add
legitimacy to its rule

ISIS’s horrific attitudes within a region historically known for its
religious, ethnic and cultural diversity might not be the direct reason
behind its demolition one day inasmuch as it is the group’s declared
confrontation with al-Qaeda affiliate al-Nusra Front.

In a tit-for-tat move against ISIS’s declaration of its Caliphate, al-Nusra
has recently announced its own version of Islamic state, declared as Emarat
Al Sham (the Islamic Emirate of the Levant). The new state was declared in
an audio on June 29 circulated on social media, claimed to be of the
al-Qaeda affiliate leader Abu Mohammad al-Joulani’s statement. The leader
supposedly said that an Emirate would implement Sharia law and would form
courts for that purpose.

Ideological disputes

The two radical groups, ISIS and al-Nusra, have been engaged in ideological
disputes over the past period, manifested in their leaders trading
accusations of deviation from Sharia law. Since his release from prison,
which coincided with ISIS’s declaration of its Caliphate, Jordanian Salafist
leader Isam al-Barqawi — better known as Abu Muhammad al-Maqdisi – has been
attacking Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s Islamist "state." Sheikh al-Maqdisi,
perceived as supportive of al-Nusra’s ideology, has forcefully rejected ISIS’s
declaration of a new caliphate and branded the newly-formed group
"deviant."

In the ideological division and military confrontations between al-Baghdadi’s
ISIS and al-Jounali’s al-Nusra Front have much resemblance to those
confrontations between the Afghan Islamist leaders Gulbuddin Hekmatyar and
Ahmad Shah Massoud following the Soviet Union withdrawal from Afghanistan.
The two leaders’ infighting during Afghanistan’s Civil War had had an
immense impact on the alluring image of the Afghan revolution which ended
has struggle over power.

Added to the existing abhorrence between ISIS and al-Nusra has been
ideological disputes and military confrontations between al-Baghdadi and
al-Joulani’s fighters - this will definitely have a negative impact on the
state models the two groups have been promoting.

___________________________________

*Raed Omari is a Jordanian journalist, political analyst, parliamentary
affairs expert, and commentator on local and regional political affairs. His
writing focuses on the Arab Spring, press freedoms, Islamist groups,
emerging economies, climate change, natural disasters, agriculture, the
environment and social media. He is a writer for The Jordan Times, and
contributes to Al Arabiya English. He can be reached via
raed_omari1977@yahoo.com, or on Twitter @RaedAlOmari2



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Sue Lerner - Associate, IMRA