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Sunday, October 19, 2014
Iran Remains the Threat in the Middle East, by Prof. Efraim Inbar

Iran Remains the Threat in the Middle East
by Prof. Efraim Inbar
October 19, 2014
BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 272

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The novelty of the Islamic State, as well as the
magnitude of the threat it poses, are greatly exaggerated. Iran remains the
main threat to stability in the Middle East. Its journey toward a nuclear
arsenal must be stopped.

The emergence of the Islamic State (IS) on the battlefields of the civil war
in Syria, and its subsequent spectacular successes in conquering parts of
Syria and Iraq, have grabbed international attention. The gruesome pictures
of IS’s barbaric beheadings supplied to the international media has only
added to IS’s notoriety. The Islamic State’s quest to establish a new bloody
Caliphate became a cause célèbre.

Many pundits have decided that the Islamic State is fundamentally changing
the Middle East and they grope for new strategies to meet the challenge. In
reality, however, the novelty of the Islamic State, as well as the magnitude
of the threat it poses, are greatly exaggerated.

This organization is a reflection of the rise of radical political Islam in
the Middle East over the last decades. Islam has always been a central
component in the identity of the peoples of the Middle East. While Egypt,
Iran and Turkey succeeded in maintaining a strong ethno-statist parallel
identity, most of the Arab states have failed to instill statist identities
through their education system. This means that primordial identities,
tribal or sectarian, usually were stronger than the demand for loyalty by
the particular states.

Moreover, many of the Arab states failed to modernize and deliver basic
services, allowing for alternative Islamist structures to do a better job in
providing education, medical and social work services to the impoverished
masses. It is worth noting that the Muslim Brotherhood was established as
early as 1928. Ever since, it has developed grassroots by trying to take
care of the masses, while subverting the statist order in Muslim states with
the goal of building a new Caliphate. Pan Arabism – a popular ideological
inclination among the Arab elites – also undermined the legitimacy of the
statist order, reinforcing Pan-Islamist impulses. Among the Shiites, the
religious zeal turned Iran into an Islamic Republic in 1979 that has been
trying since then to export its version of radical Shiite Islam.

For decades, it was the security services, probably the only
well-functioning governmental agency, which provided stability, law and
order. But maintaining a monopoly over the use of force was a challenge that
has not been met successfully by the statist order established after the end
of World War I and it has been disintegrating for quite a while. We have
seen a failed state develop – where there is no monopoly over the use of
force, but a myriad of militias – in Lebanon since the 1970s. In Yemen,
there was a civil war in the 1960s which created much instability to this
very day. Somalia is the best know example of a failed state. Meanwhile, the
Palestinian Authority turned into a battlefield among competing militias
almost immediately after its establishment in 1994. Strong dictators held
Libya and Iraq together, but when they were gone these states became failed
political entities. The Assad republican dynasty seems to have gone in the
same direction.

Therefore, the Islamic State of today, which displays religious extremism
and transnational tendencies, is the result of historic dynamics in the
fledgling Arab civilization. Any long term look at the performance of the
Arab states could reach the gloomy conclusion that their societies are
doomed to poverty and political instability for a long while yet.

While the military and political successes of the Islamic State seem
remarkable, its achievements are taking place in a political limbo with no
real power to oppose it. The Islamic State has not faced yet any real test
in state building and in overcoming violent opposition. Therefore, it is
probably much too early to conclude that the Islamic State is able to govern
and impose law and order in the swaths of land it has conquered.

Will it be spared the typical processes of fragmentation taking place among
radical groups? Can the Islamic State take on Turkey or Iran – the rising
powers in the Muslim Middle East? Can this organization be more dangerous to
Israel than Hamas – a sister radical Sunni entity?

If the Islamic State is able to consolidate its conquests into a coherent
state and turns south to take the energy riches of the Gulf, then it might
become a real strategic actor. But any progress toward such a scenario will
galvanize tremendous opposition by the Gulf States, including Saudi Arabia.
Then the huge amounts of petro-dollars will be able to buy some security in
the face of such an imminent danger. Even a confused Obama administration
might eventually figure out what is at stake.

Therefore, the current situation does not yet warrant a change in the
strategic assessment. Much of the fragmented Arab world will be busy dealing
with its domestic problems for decades, minimizing the possibility that it
will turn into a formidable enemy for Israel or the West.

It is crystal clear that the Iran-led Shiite axis remains the main threat to
stability in the Middle East. Iran’s journey toward a nuclear arsenal – a
true game changer – must be stopped. Unfortunately, the gullible West seems
to continue to appease Iran, while the “threat” of the Islamic State serves
as a welcome diversion.
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Prof. Efraim Inbar, director of the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic
Studies, is a professor of political studies at Bar-Ilan University, and a
Shillman/Ginsburg fellow at the Middle East Forum

BESA Center Perspectives Papers are published through the generosity of the
Greg Rosshandler Family

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