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Saturday, October 25, 2014
Not a parody: Shlomo Brom asserts Israeli recognition of unilaterally declared sovereign Palestinian state would have no security ramification

[Dr. Aaron Lerner - IMRA:

"After all, with Israel still in control of the West Bank, recognition of
Palestinian statehood will not automatically lead to the establishment of
such a state or the demarcation of its borders."

Two possibilities:

#1. Shlomo Brom, who remains convinced that if we would just finally
withdraw to the '67 lines that we would miraculously enjoy utopian peace,
is trying to sucker Israel into a series of events in the hopes that the
Jewish State would be ultimately compelled to withdraw.

#2. Shomo Brom is so profoundly shortsighted that he genuinely and honestly
can write this item.

Which is worse?]

Why Should We Fear the Recognition of a Palestinian State?
Shimon Stein, Shlomo Brom
http://www.inss.org.il/index.aspx?id=4538&articleid=7934

SUMMARY: More than twelve years after Israel's rejection of the Arab Peace
Initiative, and despite the fact that acceptance of this initiative in
principle could pave the way to peace with the Arab world, the Israeli
leadership still believes in the possibility of advancing this aim without
recognizing a Palestinian state or taking concrete measures toward its
establishment. However, it is doubtful that the "moderate" pragmatic Sunni
Arab camp will agree to negotiate agreements with Israel without the onset
of serious and purposeful negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians,
despite the hardships facing this camp along with its interest in (secret)
cooperation with Israel in facing the threat posed by radical Islam.

The question of recognition of Palestinian statehood has once again found
its way onto the international agenda. In the inaugural address of the new
Swedish government, Prime Minister Stefan Löfven of the Social Democratic
Party declared his country's intention to recognize the Palestinian state.
"The conflict between Israel and Palestine can only be solved with a
two-state solution, negotiated in accordance with international law,” he
declared. "The two-state solution requires mutual recognition and a will to
co-exist peacefully. Sweden will therefore recognize the state of
Palestine." Following the Swedish statement, a resolution to recognize the
Palestinian state was also passed by the British parliament with a decisive
majority.

The Swedish Prime Minister’s statement and the decision of the British
Parliament have evoked a series of predictable responses. Palestinian
spokespeople have welcomed the actions, whereas spokespeople for the U.S.
government described them as "a premature step," though they have fallen
short of rejecting them outright. On an official level, Israel has expressed
its dissatisfaction by summoning Sweden's ambassador in Israel for an
official reprimand. Israeli Foreign Minister, Avigdor Lieberman, had
expressed his regret that the Swedish Prime Minister rushed into publicizing
his views on the Israeli-Palestinian issue before studying the subject.
According to Lieberman, had he been familiar with the issues at hand, he
would have seen that in the past twenty years, the Palestinians were the
obstacle to achieving an agreement. "…No step by an external element,"
Lieberman has been quoted as saying, "will be an alternative to direct
negotiations between the sides, as part of a comprehensive agreement between
Israel and the Arab world…" Lieberman also articulated a sentiment recently
voiced among senior Israeli politicians, according to which if the Swedish
government is truly interested in current events in the Middle East, it
would be well advised to focus on more pressing issues in the region.

It seems that Foreign Minister Lieberman and Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu are currently attempting to take advantage of the vicissitudes in
the Middle East–first and foremost, the Islamic State organization–to
promote agreements with the Arab world prior to any agreement with the
Palestinians. More than twelve years after Israel's rejection of the Arab
Peace Initiative, and despite the fact that acceptance of this initiative in
principle could pave the way to peace with the Arab world, the Israeli
leadership still believes in the possibility of advancing this aim without
recognizing a Palestinian state or taking concrete measures toward its
establishment. However, it is doubtful that the "moderate" pragmatic Sunni
Arab camp will agree to negotiate agreements with Israel without the onset
of serious and purposeful negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians,
despite the hardships facing this camp along with its interest in (secret)
cooperation with Israel in facing the threat posed by radical Islam.
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi recently stressed these obstacles to
strengthening ties with Israel, despite the close security ties between the
two countries and their common interests in many areas.

To appreciate just how slim the chances of renewing the dialogue between
Israel and the Palestinians have become one need only consider the speeches
recently delivered by Prime Minister Netanyahu and Palestinian Authority
Chairman Mahmoud Abbas before the U.N. General Assembly. What the two
leaders have in common is a focus on the effort to ensure quiet on the
domestic front while at the same time conducting a parallel effort in the
international arena to place the blame for the political stalemate on the
other party and to evade political decisions. Once again Abbas is attempting
to shift international attention–which is currently almost entirely focused
on the threat posed by the Islamic State–to the Palestinian issue and place
blame for the political stalemate on Israel using harsh, controversial
terminology, while threatening to petition the U.N. Security Council and
other international entities in order to force Israel to return to the
negotiating table. Prime Minister Netanyahu, on the other hand, is
attempting to point out similarities and even equivalence between Hamas,
Hezbollah, and the Islamic State in order to remove the Palestinian issue
from the agenda in favor of the establishment of a regional alliance, to
include Israel, united around the joint aim of fighting the common threat
posed by radical Islam.

Indeed, both sides are displaying no encouraging signs of a possible
dialogue renewal. Nevertheless, despite the difficulty of assessing whether
any other countries will follow in the footsteps of Sweden and the British
parliament, and if so, how many, additional countries can be expected to
recognize the Palestinian state, thereby increasing the pressure on Israel
to return to negotiations aimed at realizing the goal of establishing a
Palestinian State.

This brings us to the question of whether it could be worthwhile for Israel
to reconsider the question of recognition and cease the patently futile
effort to prevent other countries from recognizing Palestinian statehood.
Indeed, is there any basis for the concern that recognition will lend
legitimacy to concrete international actions aimed at establishing a
Palestinian state without Israeli consent and under conditions that are
undesirable for Israel? After all, with Israel still in control of the West
Bank, recognition of Palestinian statehood will not automatically lead to
the establishment of such a state or the demarcation of its borders. The
Palestinians' declaration of statehood in 1988 was also followed by
recognition by many countries, and in 2012 a large majority in the U.N.
General Assembly recognized a Palestinian state. These actions, however, did
not impact the status quo in the territories themselves. On the other hand,
a change in Israel's position will likely take the wind out of the
Palestinians' sails. Furthermore, it may demonstrate to the countries that
are important to Israel and relevant to the political process that Israel’s
support of the two-state solution is genuine and reiterate that such a
solution can only be actualized as the result of negotiations between the
two sides. This would also save the Israeli government significant energy by
avoiding a political campaign that may not generate significant diplomatic
dividends. One should note that in 1999, when Israel did not respond to
Palestinian threats of declaring the establishment of an independent
Palestinian state, it was actually Israeli statements regarding the benefits
of Israeli recognition of Palestinian statehood that caused the Palestinian
leadership to relinquish the idea.

Recognition of a Palestinian state will not have a detrimental impact on
Israel’s security interests. However, an expanding trend of international
recognition of Palestinian independence will create pressure for the renewal
of negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians. If Prime Minister
Netanyahu is serious about his support for a two state solution through
negotiation, he should respond positively to the calls being voiced
throughout the international community to resume talks. Israeli recognition
of Palestinian statehood could also make it easier to return to the
negotiating table – that is, unless Netanyahu and his partners in the
government are being guided purely by domestic political considerations,
most importantly the desire to keep the coalition intact.

In conclusion, since the campaign that took place last summer in the Gaza
Strip (Operation Protective Edge), there have been calls to take advantage
of its outcome in general, and the blow sustained by Hamas in particular, in
order to open new possibilities in the Israeli-Palestinian arena by
facilitating the Palestinian Authority’s return to the Gaza Strip, among
other things. Restoration of the P.A.'s control over the Gaza Strip will be
manifested in the administration of civilian affairs and the beginning of a
renewed security presence in the strip, despite Hamas's reluctance to
surrender its military control over the Gaza Strip. The chances of success
in this direction are currently unclear. What is clear, however, is the fact
that they will have no chance whatsoever of succeeding unless the
Ramallah-based Palestinian leadership is recognized by Israel as a political
and strategic partner in both theory and practice. The Palestinian
leadership will be unwilling to take the risks involved in an endeavor that
may fail, unless it is convinced of a concrete and comprehensive plan aimed
at establishing a Palestinian state. Recognition of a Palestinian state can
be a first step in this direction.

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