Weekly Commentary: How Gen. Allen's security plan project failed to
undermine Israel's position
Dr. Aaron Lerner Date: 30 October 2014

They were sure that they had it.

And then reality flushed the Allen security plan straight down the toilet.

Here’s what happened:

The key condition that Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu had set for the
establishment of a sovereign independent Palestinian state was that there
are viable and effective security arrangements on the ground that do not
rely on a third party.

A pretty tall order.

But in the summer of 2013 the Obama team was convinced that they had come
up, in consultation and coordination with their Israeli allies, with a
foolproof plan to trap Netanyahu in a process that would quickly lead to a
White House Lawn signing ceremony marking the creation of a sovereign
Palestinian state.

The idea was simple: US Gen. John Allen, working together with top Israeli
security people, would prepare a security plan vetted by the Israeli
security technicians.

And there was every reason to believe that those Israeli security people
would embrace a combination of gizmos, international forces and a series of
best case scenario assumptions.

These are the same people, after all, who for years advocated withdrawing
from the Golan In exchange for a combination of gizmos, international forces
and a series of best case scenario assumptions.

Prime Minister Netanyahu had his lawyer in the negotiating room to keep an
eye on Minister Livni. But there was no comparable mechanism in place to
supervise Israel’s participation in the preparation of General Allen’s
security plan.

And so it was.

Mr. Netanyahu was in the process of being painted into a corner by a
security plan essentially vetted by Israel’s security experts.

The trap was set.

They were convinced that there were only two possible outcomes:

Faced with the prospects of an open dispute with the United States over a
security plan that was already endorsed by the Israeli security people who
had met with Gen. Allen Netanyahu might simply fold.

It might have worked.

If not for reality.

The reality of the summer of 2014.

International forces? A farce.

Gizmos? Their limitations appreciated. With it crystal clear that
strategic depth is very much alive and well in the missile age.

The Israelis who had over a minute to take cover from Gaza launched rockets
this summer know damn well that a Palestinian state would mean having only a
fraction of that time to seek shelter from missiles and mortars launched
from the West Bank.

No wonder Washington has shifted from arguing logic and facts to throwing
mud.
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