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Thursday, January 22, 2015
Poll for Abraham Fund: Israeli Arab voting increases by 10% if Arab parties unite

Poll: Arabs vote rate may jump by 10%
Source: Abraham Fund website
http://www.abrahamfund.org/11131

According to a survey conducted by the Yafa Institute directed by Dr. Aas
Atrash, for the Abraham Fund, of Arabs (Muslims, Christians and Druze)
across the country, turnout among Arab citizens in the current elections is
expected to jump by about 10% to about 66% if the Arab parties will be
consolidated.

In case the Arab parties do not unite, voter turnout is expected to be about
57% - similar to the rate of participation in the elections in 2013, which
was 56% (compared to 53% in 2009).

The estimate is based on the turnout that approximately 63% of the
respondents said they would vote in the elections; 19% said that they would
not vote; And 15% are undecided (estimate weighted to account for unexpected
absences on election day and gaps between words and deeds).

If the parties combine to two lists this will increase the vote, but to a
lesser extent.
...

The survey reveals that about half of the Arab population is unaware of the
raising the threshold. Most of those who are aware of the issue said that it
was a racist decision designed to prevent Arabs elected to the Knesset, and
that it encourages them to vote.

The survey shows that the turnout of Arab men in the elections will be much
higher than women - 70% versus 55%, respectively, in the case of a united
list.

According to the survey, voting of the Muslims in the upcoming election is
expected to be higher than that of Christians and Druze, as in previous
elections. According to the survey, about 67% of the Muslims will vote (a
rate similar to that of the Jewish population), compared with 56% of the
Christians, and about 44% of the Druze.

The survey was conducted in Arabic among 514 adult respondents
representative sample of Arab society based on gender, religion, age and
geographic location. The sampling method was multi-stage random, statistical
significance of the survey is 95% and its margin of error is 4.5%.
________________________________________
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